The All-Star Game has yet to be played and the numbers are starting to fly around the heads of top name free agents. This years crop includes some of the biggest names in the National League: Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols. A look at the seasons that these players are having will not be an exception to the omnipresent debate that surfaces in the conversations of many, “How does an offseason that will include negotiations effect the on-field performance of these players?”
Jose Reyes, the speedy shortstop for the embattled Mets, may be the most intriguing swimmer in a potentially very full free agent pool. Reyes, with the baffling drop-off of Hanley Ramirez, is arguably the best shortstop on an ever-aging list of Major League shortstops (although Troy Tulowitzki may have something to say about that). That ever-aging list is making the premium for top-tier shortstops extremely high.
Before landing himself on the 15-Day DL with a hamstring injury, Reyes had played his way to the top of the NL MVP race. His .354/.398/.529 line up until the pre-All Star Game DL stint puts him .063/.058/.088 ahead of his career numbers. He has already surpassed his triples total from the past two seasons combined (15 compared to 12) and has equaled his 30 steals from last season (in 80 games compared to 133). He is on pace to score 120 runs, collect 228 hits, and steal 55 bases, all while drawing more walks than strikeouts. The season he is having so far convinced Jayson Stark, the ESPN baseball expert, to compare it to Ty Cobb’s 1911 season. He has 43 multi-hit games so far this season compared to 21 single-hit games, coupled with 16 no-hit games, he has more multi-hit games than others. But what kind of numbers will this season translate to in the off-season? And are such astronomical numbers the result of him reaching the end of his contract?
Part of what make Reyes’ free agent negotiations is where the juggernauts will fall. The Yankees locked themselves into 3 more seasons with “The Captain” for $51 million, but Jeter’s play both in the batter’s box and in the field, have left more than a little to be desired. The Yankees have a lineup that could get log jammed with guys needing to DH, and they have gotten a glimpse of Eduardo Nunez, who could serve as their SS of the future. You can never rule them out of the bidding, but as the number crawls north Cashman may turn his focus to the rotation which cannot survive long term on the arms of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. The Red Sox have a very viable SS in Jed Lowrie and a very good prospect in Jose Iglesias, and following the spending spree of this past off-season they may save their money for another year or two when pieces such as J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett may need to be replaced. The absence of these two teams from the negotiations could keep the number down for some teams to sneak in, but north of $17 million-a-year, or even a Crawford-esque 7-year $142 million, should not be shocking to anyone.
Two of the other big names that will probably find themselves in the pool: Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Prince Fielder is on pace to return to his 2009 form and hit 40 homers with 129 RBIs. His OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) is over the 1.000 mark and his strikeout numbers are down. This type of production is not too odd for Prince, and he is looking for a King’s sum. His fellow NL Central first baseman, Albert Pujols, however, is more likely to bring home the big loot. Albert, landing himself on the DL with a broken bone in his left arm is lagging behind his career average for offensive production. That being said, he is widely regarded as the best player in the Majors and already one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of the game. The big question will be his performance upon returning from the broken bone in his arm. If he is able to bring his production back up and show that it is now issue, the sky could be the limit in free agency.
These two players will, like Reyes, suffer from the absence of the Yankees and Red Sox, who have their first basemen of the future in Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez respectively. When Ryan Howard signed a contract renewal that averaged $25 million-a-year, Bobby Cox (the former Braves manager) said that put Pujols’ value at $50 million-a-year. While Pujols will seek a 10-year contract for $300 million, he will most likely not get that kind of money. Both of these players, both on previous and current production, have lined themselves up for huge sums, and Pujols receiving a record contract could be very likely. Prince will come out pretty also with a contract around the $20 million-a-year mark.
Looking at the numbers of all 3 players we see that Reyes is playing better, Fielder somewhere around his average, and Pujols is looking up at his average numbers, so there seems to be no correlation to “the contract year.” And lets face it, the previous numbers show that.
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