Rare Reads 1-9

I have compiled some interesting articles for you to read when you find some time.  Take a look and let me know what you think.

The first takes an interesting look at the concussion issue and how it manifested itself in the first round of the playoffs.  Gregg Easterbrook is a well known author – but his work in the 7^th and 8^th paragraphs of this piece are really well done. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/tmq140107/the-nfl-playoffs-cold-get-used-it

An interesting look at how writers who keep their ballots secretive after the results of Hall of Fame voting is released adversely affect those players who find their way in. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22531

A quick and fascinating look at how teams in major European soccer are have changed their approach to transfers and the data that they consider in evaluating players. http://worldsport.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/06/big-data-and-footballs-search-for-the-holy-grail/

A simple yet important look at the fledgling world of advanced hockey statistics. http://www.xnsports.com/explanation-advanced-hockey-stats-fantasy-applications/

The conversation around a change in the fixture schedule that players in the major European soccer leagues, particularly the Barclays Premier League, in World Cup years. http://espnfc.com/blog/_/name/tacticsandanalysis/id/2445?cc=5901

A young man’s thought process behind the difficult decision to play Canadian Junior hockey or major college hockey, a decision that does not exist to the same extent in other major sports in the U.S. http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/05/11/my-experience-with-the-choice-between-major-junior-and-college-hockey/

A thought-provoking look at what the MLB trade deadline might look like if players were swapped in a soccer-like transfer method.  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1719118-imagining-an-mlb-trade-deadline-with-soccer-like-transfer-fees

8 to Contemplate – The BCS National Championship Game

So lets get right to it – the first “8 to Contemplate.”  These observations came as a result of watching Florida State’s thrilling victory over Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game.  I would encourage you to read these 8 observations, and then, you know, contemplate them.  Really think about what expanded rosters might do for the NFL game, or how Kelvin Benjamin will translate at the next level.

Don’t forget to interact if, in the course of your contemplation, you have an interesting insight.  If the writer is the only one with the insights, what fun is that?

1. Jimbo Fisher and his coaching staff made all of the correct adjustments at halftime – they not only recruit well, but they can do work on the sidelines.  The second half saw Florida State dominate on offense, defense, and special teams.  They had their players ready to play and prevented Auburn from doing the things that had worked so well in the first half, specifically neutralizing the defensive pressure enough by increasing the tempo and reducing the level of pre-snap shifts.
2. Tre Mason was underrated the entire season and had his team been ranked in the pre-season he would have had a stronger showing in the Heisman race – and may have won it.  Mason carried the ball 34 times for 195 yards against a defense that had not allowed a 100-yard rusher since October and he chewed up yards both between and bouncing outside the tackles.
3. This game – coupled with the SEC Championship Game – showed the importance of special teams, and thus coaching in the college football game.  A coaching staff must prepare their entire team to handle all scenarios (and having an automatic as Roberto Aguayo doesn’t hurt).
4. Kelvin Benjamin will be a very good receiver at the next level.  He uses his frame well to make sure he gets to balls before defensive backs have a chance to knock them away, but he will need to show that he can handle more physical corners at the line at the next level.
5. The offense that Nick Marshall runs allowed him to avoid the “Freshman playing in the National Championship Game” jitters more so than Jameis Winston early, but they both showed them and Winston had a chance to settle down while Marshall’s rust reared its head late.
6. The SEC finally lost – and that is a good thing.  Heading into the new playoff system (good riddance bowl system), any biases aside, a more balanced landscape and thus playoff breakdown will be good for college football as a whole.  Florida State’s victory (as well as Oklahoma’s dominance of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl) allow for voters to recognize the strength at the top of the other power conferences.
7. Timmy Jernigan taking a breather in the 4^th quarter shows the importance of depth in college football and may also signal the need for large rosters in the NFL.  As player safety remains an issue and wanting to ensure that the highest level of football is consistently played, the League should consider larger rosters.
8. The month long layoff between the end of conference championships and the National Championship Game is awful and really sacrifices some of the integrity of the game.

The Return

To my readers,

I am finding my way back to the bullpen.

I will once again be providing information (however insightful or not) related to sports – all sports.  I have decided to primarily provided this information in three methods, each of which will offer a different perspective for the reader:

1.  8 to Contemplate – For events in the sporting world or at key points in different seasons, I will offer 8 observations that will encourage the reader to look at things a little differently or consider how things could be different if changes were made.

2. Rare Reads – This will offer the reader articles, columns, or blogs that I have found particularly interesting.  These will include unique takes on major stories in the major sports, but also information on sports or leagues that you otherwise might not seek.

3.  Individual Insights – Finally (and probably most obviously) since it is a blog, I will offer my own personal insights and takes on all things sports related.  These pieces may include humor, hyperbole, or sarcasm and will focus on statistical or business understandings of those magical things that we call sports (or at least that I do, if you know me, you know there are things I consider sports, and other I do not).

I hope that you enjoy the information provided and interact with me to continually dive deeper.  As always, I welcome suggestions on topics to write about as I am always up for good, new sports conversations.

Happy reading.

Dan Duquette’s Legacy: A Red Sox Fan’s Retrospective

“I am not going to go into the past.” This single quote by Mark McGwire has become indicative of the now fleeting steroid era. McGwire’s contention, however, has not prevented writers and fans alike, from attaching steroid use or even existence in the steroid era, as black spots to the legacies of numerous players.

With the announcement that the Baltimore Orioles have hired Dan Duquette, the former Boston Red Sox general manager, as their general manager, I wonder if it is time to reevaluate the legacy of Duquette in Boston.

One of moves that looms largest in the minds of Boston fans, attached to the legacy of Dan Duquette, was unquestionably the decision to let a Boston icon and legend, Roger Clemens, leave the team via free agency. Now many of you see where I am going with my train of thought here, but the question remains, what role did steroids indirectly play in the legacy of Dan Duquette?

Roger Clemens was 34 at the beginning of his first season outside of Boston. At this age, a swift precipitous decline is not out of the minds of coaches and GMs. Clemens, however, was not destined for such a drop in production, instead he would accumulate a combined 53.6 wins above replacement player (WAR) rating and 162 total wins over 11 more seasons in the MLB, and earn 4 more Cy Young awards (to go along with the 3 he won in Boston). In short, Clemens could have been an ace at the top of the Red Sox rotation, and helped the team to many more victories (especially since he did most of his pitching damage in Toronto and as a Yankee, division rivals of the Red Sox, after leaving) for many more years, had Duquette resigned him following the ’96 season.

As news outlets across America have made you acutely aware, however, Roger Clemens has found himself mired in one of the bitterest battles of alleged steroid use. Would Duquette’s decision look as bad as it does if Clemens’ arm had tired or slowed down after the more than 498 innings that he threw in two seasons as a Blue Jay? Steroids, if he did use them (and let’s face it, I am not the only one who thinks he is as guilty as it gets), it would not be a stretch to say, may have had a substantially positive effect on his performance late in his career.

So what about Duquette’s other moves as GM in Boston? It was Duquette who brought in Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in one of the great heists in recent baseball trades; for those of you who don’t know, the Seattle Mariners traded Lowe and Varitek to Boston for the likes of Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb would pitch a grand total of 98 innings as a Mariner, have an ERA of 4.97, a 2-9 record, and 13 saves in 84 appearances. It was Duquette who traded Carl Pavano (one of his draft picks) and Tony Armas to the Expos for Pedro Martinez, the same Martinez who would amass 117 wins, post a 2.52 ERA, earn a 47.6 WAR rating, and win two Cy Young awards in seven seasons in Boston. Ironically this was the second time that Duquette had, for all intents and purposes, stolen Martinez as a GM. He had brought him to Montreal from the Dodgers for Delino DeShields.

His free agent signings: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Tim Wakefield, Hanley Ramirez, Jamie Moyer, and Anibal Sanchez. Ramirez, Damon, and Wakefield are some of the most successful Red Sox players certainly of the era, but were also a part of the 2004 team that won the World Series. There is no doubt that Duquette made a mistake in trading Moyer away for Darren Bragg, but he recognized the pitcher’s talent. Ramirez and Sanchez never played for the Red Sox, but were the centerpieces of an Epstein trade with the Marlins that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.

Some of the best decisions are based in inaction. Duquette decided not to resign, then alienated, Mo Vaughn. Instead the slugger signed a 6-year $80 million contract, at the time the largest in baseball, with the Anaheim Angels. He would only play 4 of those 6 seasons in the Majors, and only 2 of them with the Angels. In his first year with the Angels, his average would drop from .337 to .281, his on-base percentage (OBP) from .402 to .358, and his slugging percentage (SLG) from .591 to .508.

All of this being said, Duquette did have some obvious shortcomings. While he was the one who drafted Nomar Garciaparra, Carl Pavano, Kevin Youkilis, Adam Everett, David Eckstein, Justin Duchscherer, and Shea Hillenbrand, those were the cream of an eight-year crop. He passed on players such as Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Chase Utley. Most of his top picks busted. He could have done better in the drafts, but there also seemed to be some pressure in Boston that directed some of his picks.

Dan Duquette, like all GMs, is not without his share of mistakes in retrospect. With the record that he does have, however, I am shocked that it took a team 9 years to give him another chance at building a team. Baltimore may have been the perfect fit for him. He does not spend money on many foolish endeavors. Drafting knowledge and tools are greatly improved, where he did have some hits. It is clear that he is skilled at evaluating talent, and being in an environment a little less stressful than pre-2004 Boston will mean that Duquette may be able to improve upon the people skills that alienated so many in the Boston clubhouse and media.

Duquette will have to take some more risks, something he did not do too much of in Boston, because there is no other way for a team that is stuck in a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and even the Tampa Bay Rays now, to compete. One things for sure though, the Orioles have a man at the helm who has a legacy, and unlike so many players, has a chance to build a new one in Camden Yards.

AL MVP Race: Singing a Different Tune

While the AL wildcard race has become increasingly murky, the AL MVP race has become increasingly clear in my mind. The choice that has become increasingly clear in my mind took some prodding to arrive at. The clear choice—Justin Verlander.

While many voters and reporters often remove pitchers from the MVP consideration because they are not everyday players, I believe that Verlander is still the most valuable player in the American League. There are several different reasons for this.

The first is a point that was just recently brought to my attention, and one that is incredibly simple I am shocked I haven’t thought of it earlier. The fact of the matter is that position players earn recognition in an MVP race almost entirely based on what they do when they step into the batter’s box. While pitchers earn recognition based on how they pitch to the batters that they face. That is to say that as long as a player is adequate playing defense, then it will neither count for nor against the player in MVP consideration.

That being said Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista (three position players mentioned at the top of the MVP list) have come to the plate 679, 654, and 612 times respectively. They have each had that many opportunities to help their team score runs. Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That is how many times he has been called on to help his team. So while he may only pitch every five days or so, he has been called upon to help his team more than any of the leading offensive candidates.

For all of you defensive gurus out there, I haven’t completely ignored this part of the game. The WAR (wins above replacement player) is a measure that has become more broadly used in baseball circles as a measure of a players value to their team. For the position players, their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is taken into account when calculating their total WAR. The leaders in the MVP race, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista have WAR ratings of 7.2, 5.2, and 8.5 respectively. One of them, Curtis Granderson has a negative defensive WAR rating, which means that the average player at his position is a better fielder than he is.

The number that we should consider is the 8.5 WAR rating of Jose Bautista. This is tied for the highest WAR rating in the American League with…yup, Justin Verlander. Verlander has earned this extraordinary WAR rating by leading the league in ERA, ERA+ (which is adjusted for the pitcher’s ballpark), WHIP, strikeouts, winning percentage, wins, and innings pitched. Leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts is the pitcher’s equivalent of the triple crown.

To put his season in perspective, he has as many wins as Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Billingsley combined, and they both have a higher average run support per game than Verlander. If he does notch his 25th win, he will be the first to do so since Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics in 1990. He is the first pitcher since Ron Guidry in 1978 to post 24 wins with at least 240 strikeouts. He has notched 12 consecutive wins coming down the stretch as the Tigers have clinched the AL Central title, and a spot in the playoffs.

While Bautista has had a monster year, he will be watching October baseball from the comfort of his couch. Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury have not had the same impact for their teams as Verlander has. Verlander’s year, while it may only be 33 games, has been insanely impressive and as I have already shown, 33 games of action have been more than enough to put him in the company of the position players in this race.

Dan Uggla’s Streak: Baffling or Bound to Happen?

33 games, that is where Dan Uggla’s hitting streak came to an end against the Cubs on Sunday.  Two things come to mind upon reflection of this streak.  The first, and more obviously, how truly incredible the 56 game streak of DiMaggio is, so much that it may never be broken.  Secondly, however, is wondering if such a hitting streak for Uggla was a foregone conclusion.

Uggla was brought to Atlanta in the off-season via trade in the hopes of being the power hitting second baseman that the Braves needed.  As I have argued in one of my previous posts, second base is the new power position, a position where contenders cannot seem to afford to lose power in their lineup if they wish to continually contend.  Up until July 5^th, when the streak began, Uggla looked like he was not the piece that the Braves had been seeking, but instead a deadweight contract.

On July 5^th, Uggla stepped to the plate in Atlanta against the Rockies hitting an Adam Dunn-esque .173.  In 5 seasons with the Florida Marlins before the trade to Atlanta, Uggla had never hit below .243 for a season.  In the 2010 season he had a career high batting average of .287.  And in the 86 games before the streak began Uggla had managed only 12 homers, he had never hit fewer than 27 as a Marlin, including 31 or more in the last 4 seasons.  After the streak, Uggla has now belted a total of 27 homers, hitting 15 during the streak and raising his batting average for the season to .231.

This streak returned Uggla’s numbers to the same range of his career averages.  Earlier in this post I mentioned Adam Dunn, the White Sox designated hitter (I would have described him as a slugger, but then this season happened) who is hitting .161 with 11 homers.  He hasn’t hit fewer than 38 homers for the last 7 seasons and hasn’t hit below .234 in that same time period.  So will he go on a titanic tear in the last 40 games of the season?

I will predict that Adam Dunn will NOT do anything of the sort, even though he is the same age as Uggla—31.  That being said, it does not baffle me that Uggla brought his numbers closer to his career averages, back to the bell curve that is.  The numbers that MLB players in particular put up are just that—averages.  In a season that is so long, players go through ups and downs (although not usually as pronounced as Uggla) that lead to mathematically significant averages.  It is much easier for an NFL player to have a season (16 games long) that is a statistical anomaly, but baseball players cannot hide for 162 games.  Uggla has put up remarkably similar numbers for the 5 seasons he has completed in the majors, and every once in a while you see a guy have two completely different stories to his season to reach his averages like Uggla seems to have done.

Dan Uggla is a talented ball player who I believe will be able to string together some more seasons of solid offensive numbers that have come to be expected of him.  He will not touch the 56 games that so many players have not found themselves in the realm of, but he will patrol second base for the Braves, and help keep them contending.

MLB Mid-Season Awards

Ladies and Gentlemen, it is time for the red carpet event that everyone cringes at—the All-Star Game.  Even players voted in don’t want to appear, it has become a complete charade similar to the Pro Bowl in the NFL.  But one good thing does come from the arrival of this red carpet event—mid-season awards (which are actually meaningless, but no more so than the All-Star Game).

Manager of the Year:

AL—Manny Acta (Indians)

It is important to remember that this award is for the first half of the season only.  I fully expect Acta to fall out of the top at the end-of-the-year ballot.  For the first half of the season, however, Acta has taken an Indians team that was written off before the season began to a battle for division supremacy.  This team is unfortunately moving in the wrong direction and I do not expect them to be in the same battle it is now come September.  Look for Joe Maddon (Rays), Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Eric Wedge (Mariners), or even Terry Francona (Red Sox) to top the ballots at the end of the year.

NL—Clint Hurdle (Pirates)

            The runaway answer here is Hurdle.  The Pirates, yes the same pathetic Pirates that have 18 consecutive losing seasons under their belts, find themselves 1 game behind the Brewers and Cardinals in the NL Central and 4 games above the .500 mark.  This is really all the information that is needed to settle this dispute, just look at their roster and try to wrap your head around their success.  Honorable mentions here go to Kirk Gibson (D’Backs), Terry Collins (Mets), and Fredi Gonzalez (Braves).

Rookies of the Year:

AL—Michael Pineda (P-Mariners)

            In the interest of not awarding a “Co-RotY” I chose Pineda over Rays rookie hurler Jeremy Hellickson.  Their ERAs (number of earned runs divided by innings pitched multiplied by 9), WHIPs (Walks plus hits per inning pitched), and other measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness are very similar, and they have done so against similar levels of competition.  The metrics that do set Pineda apart?  His strike out per 9 innings mark of 9.0 leads ALL AL pitchers, not just rookies and his 3.14 strikeout to walk ratio places him in the top 25 pitchers in the Majors.

NL—Danny Espinosa (2B-Nationals)

            Just like the race for Manager of the Year honors, the race is much more clearcut in the NL.  Espinosa, the rookie who is actually doing something for the Nationals right NOW (see Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg), is making a name for himself.  Playing at the new power position in the Majors, second base, Espinosa has belted 16 homers to go along with 15 doubles and 4 triples.  While his numbers are not overly impressive .242/.332/.460 they are good enough to win him the honors over a pair of Braves young-guns, Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman, trying to capture what Jason Heyward couldn’t last year.

Cy Young Award:

AL—Justin Verlander (Tigers)

            This is a multi-horse race that is very close and will not be decided on first half performance.  Jared Weaver leads the league with a sub-2.00 ERA.  C.C. Sabathia is racking up wins faster than jurors are being selected for the Roger Clemens trial.  Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and James Shields are putting together seasons that are the envy of so many pitchers around the league.  All of those names being considered it is Verlander who is in the top 3 of every major pitching category and whose stuff appears to be most feared by hitters.  He lasts late in games, in 13 of his 20 starts he has recorded at least 23 outs, and he has a no-hitter (not to mention the other one he took into the 8^th inning).  This is an impressive year for AL pitchers, but Verlander puts himself above the rest.  Oh and the Tigers fired their pitching coach for the pitiful performance of the other pitchers on their roster.

NL—Roy Halladay (Phillies)

            I know it’s a boring pick, and I wanted to spice things up and go with Jair Jurrjens, but Halladay has just been too good.  Halladay’s ERA may be higher, but his WHIP is lower and his strikeout to walk ratio is an astronomical 8.12 (to Jurrjens’ 2.60).  Halladay is more durable (he has thrown 33.2 innings more) and induces ground balls at a much higher rate than Jurrjens, making it easier on his defense and keeping himself out of trouble.  Once again the fact of the matter is Halladay, not Jurrjens, is more feared by hitters and the movement and control on his pitches is incredible.  Don’t be surprised if Jurrjens sees that ERA climb in the second half of the season while Halladay only gets stronger.

MVP:

AL—Adrian Gonzalez (1B-Red Sox)

            Yes, Jose Bautista exists.  Yes, Adrian Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox who spend immense amounts of money to build a roster (3^rd in Majors just over $160 million).  But, the Red Sox find themselves in 1^st place in the toughest division in the Majors after starting 2-10 and have done so with Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, and J.D. Drew all having serious struggles at the plate, John Lackey allowing runs like a slow-pitch softball game, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester all landing on the DL.  The biggest reason:  Adrian Gonzalez.  His .354/.414/.591 (BA/OBP/SLG) line is simply phenomenal.  He is on pace for 230 hits, 52 doubles, 31 homers, and 139 RBIs.  These numbers have not been seen in the AL for a VERY long time.

NL—Prince Fielder (1B-Brewers)

            This is once again a scenario in which I named Fielder the MVP for the sake of not giving a “Co-MVP” award with Jose Reyes.  Prince is hitting .297 but his OBP of .415 is extremely impressive.  He is hitting the ball for power (22 homers and 21 doubles) and doing so when it counts (NL best 72 RBIs).  When he comes to the plate with runners in scoring position his average jumps to .322 and his OBP to .456.  Reyes’ numbers, overall and power, drop when there are men on base.  Once again the Brewers are tied for the top spot in the NL Central while the Mets find themselves in 3^rd place, 11 games back in the NL East.

 

Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, and “The Contract Year” Debate

The All-Star Game has yet to be played and the numbers are starting to fly around the heads of top name free agents. This years crop includes some of the biggest names in the National League: Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols. A look at the seasons that these players are having will not be an exception to the omnipresent debate that surfaces in the conversations of many, “How does an offseason that will include negotiations effect the on-field performance of these players?”

Jose Reyes, the speedy shortstop for the embattled Mets, may be the most intriguing swimmer in a potentially very full free agent pool. Reyes, with the baffling drop-off of Hanley Ramirez, is arguably the best shortstop on an ever-aging list of Major League shortstops (although Troy Tulowitzki may have something to say about that). That ever-aging list is making the premium for top-tier shortstops extremely high.

Before landing himself on the 15-Day DL with a hamstring injury, Reyes had played his way to the top of the NL MVP race. His .354/.398/.529 line up until the pre-All Star Game DL stint puts him .063/.058/.088 ahead of his career numbers. He has already surpassed his triples total from the past two seasons combined (15 compared to 12) and has equaled his 30 steals from last season (in 80 games compared to 133). He is on pace to score 120 runs, collect 228 hits, and steal 55 bases, all while drawing more walks than strikeouts. The season he is having so far convinced Jayson Stark, the ESPN baseball expert, to compare it to Ty Cobb’s 1911 season. He has 43 multi-hit games so far this season compared to 21 single-hit games, coupled with 16 no-hit games, he has more multi-hit games than others. But what kind of numbers will this season translate to in the off-season? And are such astronomical numbers the result of him reaching the end of his contract?

Part of what make Reyes’ free agent negotiations is where the juggernauts will fall. The Yankees locked themselves into 3 more seasons with “The Captain” for $51 million, but Jeter’s play both in the batter’s box and in the field, have left more than a little to be desired. The Yankees have a lineup that could get log jammed with guys needing to DH, and they have gotten a glimpse of Eduardo Nunez, who could serve as their SS of the future. You can never rule them out of the bidding, but as the number crawls north Cashman may turn his focus to the rotation which cannot survive long term on the arms of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. The Red Sox have a very viable SS in Jed Lowrie and a very good prospect in Jose Iglesias, and following the spending spree of this past off-season they may save their money for another year or two when pieces such as J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett may need to be replaced. The absence of these two teams from the negotiations could keep the number down for some teams to sneak in, but north of $17 million-a-year, or even a Crawford-esque 7-year $142 million, should not be shocking to anyone.

Two of the other big names that will probably find themselves in the pool: Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Prince Fielder is on pace to return to his 2009 form and hit 40 homers with 129 RBIs. His OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) is over the 1.000 mark and his strikeout numbers are down. This type of production is not too odd for Prince, and he is looking for a King’s sum. His fellow NL Central first baseman, Albert Pujols, however, is more likely to bring home the big loot. Albert, landing himself on the DL with a broken bone in his left arm is lagging behind his career average for offensive production. That being said, he is widely regarded as the best player in the Majors and already one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of the game. The big question will be his performance upon returning from the broken bone in his arm. If he is able to bring his production back up and show that it is now issue, the sky could be the limit in free agency.

These two players will, like Reyes, suffer from the absence of the Yankees and Red Sox, who have their first basemen of the future in Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez respectively. When Ryan Howard signed a contract renewal that averaged $25 million-a-year, Bobby Cox (the former Braves manager) said that put Pujols’ value at $50 million-a-year. While Pujols will seek a 10-year contract for $300 million, he will most likely not get that kind of money. Both of these players, both on previous and current production, have lined themselves up for huge sums, and Pujols receiving a record contract could be very likely. Prince will come out pretty also with a contract around the $20 million-a-year mark.

Looking at the numbers of all 3 players we see that Reyes is playing better, Fielder somewhere around his average, and Pujols is looking up at his average numbers, so there seems to be no correlation to “the contract year.” And lets face it, the previous numbers show that.