The Other Free Agents: Beltran and Ramirez

This season’s free agent class in baseball boasts some of the game’s biggest stars. The last two World Series, however, have been won in large part due to the contributions of players who do not fit the description of the “big star” category.

Outside of Tim Lincecum, the 2010 champion San Francisco Giants team was constructed entirely of players outside the top echelon of talent. The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals boasted Albert Pujols (one of the free agents that makes this years class so top heavy) and Chris Carpenter, two of the best at their respective positions. It was the contributions of two players who have never appeared in 100 games in a regular season, Allen Craig and David Freese, however, that were the key to a Series victory over a Texas Rangers team that boasts more of those “big star” names.

This offseason will be full of talk about where Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, and even Mark Buehrle will land. Jim Bowden, of ESPN, has listed 5 of these 6 (Darvish not included because he is coming from Japan) as the 5 free agents who will, not shockingly, make the most money in their new contracts. The players that Bowden has listed at 6 and 7, respectively, however, jumped out to me as players that carry with them “big star” names, but will have to play contributor roles and could have serious impacts in these roles. What also jumped out to me is that these players, according to Bowden’s estimations, will command nearly identical contract numbers. These two players are: Carlos Beltran and Aramis Ramirez.

So which of these two players is worth the 3-year $40-$45 million contract that they will receiver in the now bloated free agent market of baseball? Also which other available players might be able to be had at these positions that could serve as acceptable replacements?

Carlos Beltran, who was brought in by the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline to try and help the crew of misfits repeat as World Series champions, will turn 35 less than a month into the upcoming season. How did he do as a 34 year-old? For the first time in 3 seasons, Beltran appeared in more than 50% of the regular season games, appearing in a total of 142 between the Mets and Giants. For just the second time in the last 8 seasons, his batting average (BA) hit the .300 mark, batting .300 exactly. His .385 on-base percentage (OBP) and his .910 on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage were his second highest totals over the last 5 seasons. In short, Beltran looked rejuvenated after two injury-shortened seasons.

Pitfalls? Obviously. Bill James, the now famous baseball statistician, developed a series of equations that allows players throughout history to be compared on a purely statistical basis. So who can Carlos Beltran most closely be compared to? Fred Lynn.

How did Fred Lynn fare as a 34 year-old? Lynn’s 23 homeruns were 1 more than the 22 dingers that Beltran hit this past year. Lynn, as a 34 year-old, posted his second highest totals in BA, OBP, and OPS over his last 5 years. Fred Lynn’s next three seasons, the expected length of Beltran’s contract? His offensive-WAR rating over the next three seasons combined would be only .4 higher than his 3.4 rating as a 34 year-old. The closest he would get to the .287 he posted as a 34 year-old—.253. His .371 OBP—.328. And his .869 OPS—.807. There is hope, however.

Carlos Beltran’s most recent year had the highest similarity score with the 34 year-old Andre Dawson. In fact, Beltran’s years between the ages of 26 and 30 were most similar to those same years of Dawson. Dawson’s production following such a similar season as a 34 year-old? His WAR rating would be higher than his 2.0 rating as a 34 year-old each of the next three seasons. Dawson’s homerun totals were also higher as a 35, 36, and 37 year-old. His BA, OBP, and OPS were higher 2 of the next 3 seasons. So is Beltran destined for a Fred Lynn-esque decline, or an Andre Dawson-like resurgence? This is the question GMs across the league will have to ask themselves.

This brings us to Aramis Ramirez—the 33-year old third baseman for the Cubs. Ramirez, who will turn 34 before the halfway point of the season, had a strong season last year relative to his career, but extraordinarily mediocre season compared to his last 5. His .306 batting average, 93 RBIs, and 3.6 WAR rating were his third highest totals over his past five years. A couple of things, however, stand out about this year. His 149 games played are tied for his highest total over the past five seasons, and his OPS+ (an on-base plus slugging percentage that is adjusted for a given player’s home ballpark) of 136 was the second highest total of his career—behind the 138 he posted in 2004 as a 26-year old. So will his mediocre season trend to a resurgence or decline, or is it a sign of a production-plateau that he now calls home.

Turning to the similarity scores that we used in evaluating Carlos Beltran’s potential future value, we find that Ramirez’s career has, statistically, most closely mirrored the career of Vinny Castilla. As a 33-year old Vinny Castilla slugged 25 homers (1 fewer than Ramirez’s total this past season), but hit only .260, with a .308 OBP, and a .775 OPS. His next three seasons were a rollercoaster ride. As a 34-year old, his BA dropped to .232, his OBP to .268, his OPS to .616, and he hit only 12 homeruns. All of this was good for a WAR rating of -1.0. He would, however, post a combined 5.4 WAR rating over his next two seasons, including a 3.4 rating (the second highest total of his career) as a 36-year old. He would hit a combined 57 homeruns in those two seasons, his batting average would remain over .270, his OBP over .310, and he would post OPSs of .771 and .867.

While Vinny Castilla is an interesting and seemingly apt comparison to Aramis Ramirez, there is another player who has had either the highest or second highest similarity score to the age specific production of Ramirez since he was 28, that is more intriguing in my mind as a comparison—Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen would only play until he was 36, which is the same age Ramirez would be at the end of a 3-year contract.

As a 33-year old, Scott Rolen posted a 3.8 WAR rating after hitting .262, posting an OBP of .349, and having an OPS of .780. His 3.8 WAR rating was slightly higher than the 3.6 posted by Ramirez this past season, but also hugely misleading. Ramirez’s offensive WAR this past year was 4.5, and he had a negative defensive WAR. Rolen, however, had a 1.7 defensive WAR rating which means his offensive WAR rating was a mere 2.1 as a 33-year old. So why do I like this comparison? Because it is clear that Ramirez could be valuable to an AL team as a designated hitter and backup third baseman. The careers of both Castilla and Rolen, two hitters who are statistically similar to Ramirez, show that for as many as 3 more years, Ramirez could be extremely productive at the plate. The career of Ramirez, as he has had only 1 season in the past 10 of a positive defensive WAR rating, however, shows that he will most likely not be extremely valuable at the hot corner.

So which one of these two free agents will be more valuable to teams over the next 3 seasons? I think that the answer, although not by much, is Carlos Beltran. Ramirez has been a mercurial hitter, and has been a part of a dysfunctional clubhouse in Chocago for so many years now that he does not have much leadership to add as a veteran. Beltran is more valuable as a fielder and has a proven track record of success in the post-season.

These two players will obviously go to teams that wish to contend in the present. And both players could be valuable as designated hitters, a role that neither one has played extensively. The most intriguing replacement options for the teams that miss out on these big-name free agents come from Japan and Cuba. Players such as Yoennis Cespedes, Jorge Soler, Henry Urrutia, Norichika Aoki, and Hiroyuki Nakajima will be signed with less recognition than Beltran and Ramirez, but could have just has significant contributions for 3 years or even more. I think that they are both overpriced, but they will have no problem finding roster spots. There is one big difference, however, I think that Beltran will return to San Francisco and I think that there is not a chance that Ramirez returns to Chicago.

AL MVP Race: Singing a Different Tune

While the AL wildcard race has become increasingly murky, the AL MVP race has become increasingly clear in my mind. The choice that has become increasingly clear in my mind took some prodding to arrive at. The clear choice—Justin Verlander.

While many voters and reporters often remove pitchers from the MVP consideration because they are not everyday players, I believe that Verlander is still the most valuable player in the American League. There are several different reasons for this.

The first is a point that was just recently brought to my attention, and one that is incredibly simple I am shocked I haven’t thought of it earlier. The fact of the matter is that position players earn recognition in an MVP race almost entirely based on what they do when they step into the batter’s box. While pitchers earn recognition based on how they pitch to the batters that they face. That is to say that as long as a player is adequate playing defense, then it will neither count for nor against the player in MVP consideration.

That being said Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista (three position players mentioned at the top of the MVP list) have come to the plate 679, 654, and 612 times respectively. They have each had that many opportunities to help their team score runs. Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That is how many times he has been called on to help his team. So while he may only pitch every five days or so, he has been called upon to help his team more than any of the leading offensive candidates.

For all of you defensive gurus out there, I haven’t completely ignored this part of the game. The WAR (wins above replacement player) is a measure that has become more broadly used in baseball circles as a measure of a players value to their team. For the position players, their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is taken into account when calculating their total WAR. The leaders in the MVP race, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista have WAR ratings of 7.2, 5.2, and 8.5 respectively. One of them, Curtis Granderson has a negative defensive WAR rating, which means that the average player at his position is a better fielder than he is.

The number that we should consider is the 8.5 WAR rating of Jose Bautista. This is tied for the highest WAR rating in the American League with…yup, Justin Verlander. Verlander has earned this extraordinary WAR rating by leading the league in ERA, ERA+ (which is adjusted for the pitcher’s ballpark), WHIP, strikeouts, winning percentage, wins, and innings pitched. Leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts is the pitcher’s equivalent of the triple crown.

To put his season in perspective, he has as many wins as Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Billingsley combined, and they both have a higher average run support per game than Verlander. If he does notch his 25th win, he will be the first to do so since Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics in 1990. He is the first pitcher since Ron Guidry in 1978 to post 24 wins with at least 240 strikeouts. He has notched 12 consecutive wins coming down the stretch as the Tigers have clinched the AL Central title, and a spot in the playoffs.

While Bautista has had a monster year, he will be watching October baseball from the comfort of his couch. Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury have not had the same impact for their teams as Verlander has. Verlander’s year, while it may only be 33 games, has been insanely impressive and as I have already shown, 33 games of action have been more than enough to put him in the company of the position players in this race.

Sabathia is Tough, But Not Tough Enough

Last night may have been C.C. Sabathia’s most important start of the year.  He threw 128 pitches, the second most in his career, scattered 10 hits, resulting in only 2 runs over 6 innings and ultimately a win against bitter division rival and leader the Boston Red Sox.  While it may have been enough for a win in the game, it was not nearly enough for another win that Sabathia has been chasing.

The Cy Young award, given to the best pitcher in each league, would appear to be a race between Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and maybe some other minor contenders.  Sabathia’s performance last night may have been good enough for a victory against the Red Sox, but he will be thankful that he does not have a Cy Young related incentive in his contract because it was not good enough to win that award.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.  Against the three teams that find themselves atop the three divisions in the American League (Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox) Sabathia’s numbers have been less than stellar.  His ERA for the season is 2.99.  His ERA in his starts against those three teams so far this season—5.54.  He has posted an 18-7 record this year, but is only 3-5 against those three teams.

Justin Verlander’s numbers tell a different story.  His ERA for the season is 2.38.  Due to the fact that his team is in first place in the Central division, I calculated his results again the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees.  The Yankees, it appears, will make the playoffs even if they finish second in the division, they boast the third best record in the Majors, and have scored the most runs in the Majors so far this year.  So what is Verlander’s ERA against those three teams?  2.70—close to his season average.  His 20-5 record is aided by a 1-1 record in his starts against the three teams in question.

While neither has been overly impressive against the other best teams in the American League so far this year, Verlander has pitched close to his stellar averages.  Sabathia has taken huge steps backward against the toughest competition.  This race, in my mind, is over and Justin Verlander is the pinnacle of pitching performance in the American League.

Years Later: Could Jeff Weaver Still be Hurting the Yankees?

5-years and $85 million dollars.  Those are the principal numbers for the contract extension that Jered Weaver signed this past week with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  With an earned run average (ERA) that has settled at 2.28, tops in the American League, reports have insisted that by signing this contract he scorned $40-$50 million more.

On the surface this story is about Weaver taking less money to remain close to home and play for an organization that he has come to love and respect.  It is about him joining the likes of players such as Joe Mauer, taking less money (although still huge sums) and not taking their services to the masses asking for new, record-breaking contracts.

Deeper, however, there is the hint of a trend starting to show itself.  All that extra money that Weaver may have sacrificed in signing the contract extension with the Angels would most likely have come from one of the two biggest spenders in the Majors:  The Yankees and The Red Sox.  Starting pitching, especially outstanding starting pitching, is hard to come by, and even harder because you need to find 5 adequate starting pitchers for your team, and that is if they stay healthy.  Weaver is a new face in a growing trend of pitchers choosing not to bear the burden of New York pressure or Boston tradition.

Over the past few seasons, some big name pitchers have been mentioned in connection with the Yankees in particular, pitchers such as:  Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, and even a return for former Yankee Ted Lilly.  How many of these pitchers are donning Yankees uniforms?  Zero.  And for the foreseeable future, Jered Weaver will join that list of premier pitchers who will not find a home in the Bronx or Boston.

There have been several big name free agent pitchers that have found their way to New York, however.  One off-season in particular saw the arrival of both C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to the bright lights and pinstripes of New York.  One of these pitchers has continued his pace as a perennial Cy Young candidate, while the other has found his way onto a much more dubious list—the list of pitchers to falter on one of baseball’s biggest stages.  This list has swelled and includes familiar names:  Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Jon Lieber, and the most interesting of them all Jeff Weaver.

Jeff Weaver, the older brother of Jered Weaver, would find his way via trade to the bright lights of New York from the doldrums of Detroit.  Jeff came up to the Majors in 1999 with the Tigers and that season he would post a 5.55 ERA in 29 starts, good for a 0.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement player) rating.  His next two seasons in Detroit would find him start at least 30 games, post an ERA under 4.35, and earn a WAR rating over 3.  He began the 2002 season in Detroit and had a 3.18 ERA in his first 17 starts and a WAR rating of 2.7.  He would then get traded to New York and have a 4.04 ERA with them, good for a WAR of 1.4.  The following season would be his only full season with the Yankees.  He posted a 5.99 ERA, had a career high WHIP (Walk and Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.619, and a WAR rating of -0.3.  He would pitch the next season for the Dodgers and have an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.300, and a WAR of 1.9.  This story is indicative of many of the pitchers who find their way New York.

While there are success stories such as C.C. Sabathia, they seem to be coming fewer and further between.  A former teammate of Sabathia’s, Cliff Lee, made one of the biggest splashes in the most recent off-season by turning away millions more dollars in New York to go back and pitch in Philadelphia.  Jered Weaver preemptively scorned those millions with his contract extension.  Are pitchers wary to go to the big stages in New York and Boston?  Are they afraid of ruining longevity by trashing their psyche under the pressure?  Might it actually make them more money in the long term to not pitch in New York and take more contracts with other teams?  These are interesting ideas, and ones that should be watched more closely in coming years.  The advice of an older brother may mean more than millions of dollars, just ask the Weavers.

Dan Uggla’s Streak: Baffling or Bound to Happen?

33 games, that is where Dan Uggla’s hitting streak came to an end against the Cubs on Sunday.  Two things come to mind upon reflection of this streak.  The first, and more obviously, how truly incredible the 56 game streak of DiMaggio is, so much that it may never be broken.  Secondly, however, is wondering if such a hitting streak for Uggla was a foregone conclusion.

Uggla was brought to Atlanta in the off-season via trade in the hopes of being the power hitting second baseman that the Braves needed.  As I have argued in one of my previous posts, second base is the new power position, a position where contenders cannot seem to afford to lose power in their lineup if they wish to continually contend.  Up until July 5^th, when the streak began, Uggla looked like he was not the piece that the Braves had been seeking, but instead a deadweight contract.

On July 5^th, Uggla stepped to the plate in Atlanta against the Rockies hitting an Adam Dunn-esque .173.  In 5 seasons with the Florida Marlins before the trade to Atlanta, Uggla had never hit below .243 for a season.  In the 2010 season he had a career high batting average of .287.  And in the 86 games before the streak began Uggla had managed only 12 homers, he had never hit fewer than 27 as a Marlin, including 31 or more in the last 4 seasons.  After the streak, Uggla has now belted a total of 27 homers, hitting 15 during the streak and raising his batting average for the season to .231.

This streak returned Uggla’s numbers to the same range of his career averages.  Earlier in this post I mentioned Adam Dunn, the White Sox designated hitter (I would have described him as a slugger, but then this season happened) who is hitting .161 with 11 homers.  He hasn’t hit fewer than 38 homers for the last 7 seasons and hasn’t hit below .234 in that same time period.  So will he go on a titanic tear in the last 40 games of the season?

I will predict that Adam Dunn will NOT do anything of the sort, even though he is the same age as Uggla—31.  That being said, it does not baffle me that Uggla brought his numbers closer to his career averages, back to the bell curve that is.  The numbers that MLB players in particular put up are just that—averages.  In a season that is so long, players go through ups and downs (although not usually as pronounced as Uggla) that lead to mathematically significant averages.  It is much easier for an NFL player to have a season (16 games long) that is a statistical anomaly, but baseball players cannot hide for 162 games.  Uggla has put up remarkably similar numbers for the 5 seasons he has completed in the majors, and every once in a while you see a guy have two completely different stories to his season to reach his averages like Uggla seems to have done.

Dan Uggla is a talented ball player who I believe will be able to string together some more seasons of solid offensive numbers that have come to be expected of him.  He will not touch the 56 games that so many players have not found themselves in the realm of, but he will patrol second base for the Braves, and help keep them contending.

Honorable Numbers

My previous two posts focused on the outstanding career of Jim Thome and the debate about the legacy that he leaves behind, and the future he will find in baseball history.  Watching the Red Sox, the other night, enticed me to write one more blog about the Hall of Fame debate (and then I will get back to more analysis).

On Sunday, Tim Wakefield struck out his 2,000^th batter as a member of the Boston Red Sox.  The only other player to reach that milestone in a Red Sox uniform?  Roger Clemens.  This solidifies Wakefield’s place as a Red Sox great.  Sure, he is not one of the best players to don the classic uniform, but 185 of his career 199 wins and 2,000 of his career 2,110 strikeouts have come with Boston.  He has been a part of some of the worst times, he surrendered the game 7 winning homerun to Aaron Boone in the 2003 ALCS against the Yankees, and the best times, he has seen two World Series parades through the streets of Boston.  There are two other members of the Red Sox that will find their names mentioned in Red Sox lore for years to come:  Jason Varitek and David Ortiz.

Varitek has never been an outstanding offensive threat.  He does, however, command respect in baseball circles.  This is because with four no-hitters, Varitek has caught more no-hitters than any other catcher in the history of Major League Baseball.  He has helped bring up what is one of the best, young rotations currently in the Majors.  He has caught more games for the Red Sox than anyone.  David Ortiz, the man of two legendary walk-off hits against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, recorded his 1,000^th RBI with the Red Sox.  Can you name the five other players to reach this milestone?  You may recognize a few of the names:  Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, and Bobby Doerr.

There is no question that these players have found a permanent place in Red Sox history, but none of them may wind up with careers worthy of the Hall of Fame.  This brings me to the point of this blog.  In my previous blog, I stated that I thought the Hall of Fame was, “a place to honor the greatest players who have simultaneously been ambassadors to the game, treating it with the dignity and respect that it deserves.”  There is another way to honor those players who are not worthy of the Hall, but have been vital to a team and been one of the greats in the organization—retire their numbers.

Johnny Damon, a former Red Sox (among other teams), is now 37 and still producing at a high level and adding to career numbers that will warrant serious Hall consideration.  Johnny Damon, whose longest stint with a team is six seasons, has not been with one club long enough to cement a legacy like Wakefield, Varitek and Ortiz have.  He does not deserve to have his number retired by any of the now 6 different teams that he has played for.  Wakefield, Varitek and Ortiz may all find their respective numbers in the rafters of Fenway Park one day however.

While this a minor discrepancy, it is a debate that I have had with friends before and it is my firm stance that a player does not have to Hall of Fame caliber to have his number retired, and a Hall of Famer may not be worthy of having his number retired.  You decide who should have their numbers retired for your team.

When Should the Hall Call?

My previous blog was about Jim Thome and the slugger’s pursuit of 600 career homeruns.  After posting this blog, it became clear to me that I wanted to make it known to Skip Bayless that I not only thought that it was clear that Thome had earned a spot in Cooperstown as a Hall-of-Famer, but that his approach to the game and life had earned him a spot as a baseball titan.

Mr. Bayless, a journalist who can be found each morning on ESPN’s First Take, tweeted that he does not believe Jim Thome has earned a place in Cooperstown.  He believes a man who has never finished higher than fourth in an MVP vote, and led the league in homers only once should find his face on a plaque among the all-time greats.  Mr. Bayless also said that he “despises” the use of milestones in a career as conditions for entry into the Hall-of-Fame.  Upon reading this, I realized that I have had debates about similar topics many different times.

The Hall-of-Fame, in my opinion, is a place to honor the greatest players who have simultaneously been ambassadors to the game, treating it with the dignity and respect that it deserves.  Pete Rose, an all-time great, did not treat the game with the utmost respect and does not belong in Cooperstown.  Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and many other greats tainted with steroids, have also forfeited their claim to a place in Cooperstown.  There are also a slew of players who have been wonderful ambassadors to the game, but have not been able to play at a similarly wonderful level.

Once again, in my opinion, there is no question that Jim Thome has, throughout the course of his career, been an ambassador to the game and has not tarnished his own or the game’s reputation.  He has a career .277 batting average, which is not overwhelming; but his .403 career OBP is impressive.  His 596 homers already places him at a number that only 4 other players have been able to reach without the use of steroids:  Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Ken Griffey Jr.  Milestones may not be as vital to enshrinement as people make them out to be, but Thome has hit the 5^th most homers, the most valuable hit in baseball, of all time.

Numbers aside, Mr. Bayless argued that Thome is not a superstar, that if you need any amount of time to think about a players name, he has not made himself a Hall-of-Famer.  I do not believe that a player must also market himself so that he is known by a wide audience to earn a place in Cooperstown.  Sure Thome doesn’t have Cameron Diaz placing popcorn into his mouth, he has never faced charges of sexual misconduct, and he doesn’t have a Twitter account where he posts witty comments.  But is this a bad thing?  Thome played in an era when so many players were in the news for all of the wrong reasons: players coming before grand juries, players being named in the Mitchell Report and Jose Canseco books, players facing criminal charges, etc.  Thome has, by his own choice, remained out of the spotlight in many respects.

Joe Posnanski once wrote an article for Sports Illustrated about one of the all-time great baseball players who is enshrined in Cooperstown—Stan Musial.  Posnanski continually points out in his article that Musial, always the quiet star, never sought the headlines, but instead spoke with his bat.  Thome has done the same.  Thome has never made $20 million in a year.  He didn’t play for the Yankees or Braves in the 90’s, so he doesn’t have any World Series rings; but he did help the 1997 Indians get to the World Series and he performed well in the Series.

In short, Jim Thome has earned a spot in the Hall-of-Fame with his play on the diamond, in my mind.  Also, in an era when some of the most memorable names in baseball are etched in darkness, the fact that Jim Thome’s name doesn’t jump out should not count against him enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.  Just as Stan Musial was outshined by some his contemporaries, Thome too, has undoubtedly been outshined by some of his peers.  His longevity, however, as a great player is Cooperstown worthy and I look forward to the speech of family man.

The Legend Grows, but Nobody Knows

Deadline deals, skids and streaks, injuries, and rehabs.  These are the storylines that continue to dominate the mid-summer baseball news.  There is another story, however, that is more remarkable, one that will live in the annals of baseball for years to come.

Jim Thome, currently the designated hitter for the Minnesota Twins, has cranked 596 career homeruns.  596!  With 4 more to go until he joins the elite 600 club, Thome has remained out of the spotlight, and there are some understandable reasons for this.  First, the Minnesota Twins, as a team, have been decimated by injuries and have under-performed their way to a 46-53 record that is good for fourth place in the AL Central.  Secondly, Thome has slugged only 7 homeruns in 130 at-bats this year while hitting a meager .215.  There are some real reasons, however, that this historic run should be getting more coverage than it has been.

Playing most of his career in the steroid era, allegations of steroid use have not come close to the career of Jim Thome.  He has remained completely clean.  If we remove those players who have used steroids to aide their careers, the list of players Thome trails in career homeruns is:  Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Ken Griffey Jr.  This elite company will earn Thome a place in Cooperstown with a Cleveland Indians logo emblazoned on his hat, but it should also earn him a spot as a baseball titan.

While there are currently 596 tape-measure moon shot reasons to pay attention to this story, there are also 10 more reasons.  Thome is putting every single one of his 10 nieces and nephews, not to mention the two children of his own, through college.  While headlines of athletes blowing money at nightclubs, on wild trips, and huge speeding tickets saturate all sports, Thome has made a different decision about what is important—family.  In 2007, 464 major leaguers voted Jim Thome the second friendliest player in MLB.  He has earned the admiration of his fans, the awe of baseball historians, and the respect of his peers.

With the exception of those teams that he has faced so many times in the AL Central as a member of the Indians (Tigers, White Sox, Royals, and Twins), Thome has hit his most career homeruns against the Boston Red Sox.  As a Red Sox fan, I can only tip my hat in thanks to a man who has treated the game with dignity and silently been one of the great sluggers of all-time while being an outstanding man both on and off the field.  While much of America will not be looking for those last 4 dingers, I will be waiting with baited breath for Jim Thome to crack 600 and hopefully garner the attention that he deserves.

Cape Cod League and Reclaiming Our “National Pastime”

This week, while on vacation in Cape Cod, I have had the luxury of getting to see numerous Cape Cod League baseball games.  The Cape Cod League is an elite summer league for some of the best collegiate players in the country.  Getting a chance to watch the Bourne Braves the other night, however, brought me to a disturbing revelation, that college baseball may be hurting American baseball players in the long term.

One of the most widely praised aspect of Cape Cod League ball is that they play with wooden bats, instead of the aluminum bats that are solely used in the NCAA conferences.  But does this put them at a disadvantage?

Many American players get used to the aluminum bats for years, often including high school, and then have to go into the minor leagues and acclimate themselves to using wooden bats.  This year in the Cape Cod League there are only 11 players with batting averages over .300, and only 6 with averages over .310.  Seven of the 11 players with averages over .300 have lower batting averages then their most recent college season.

A regression analysis could show that part of this drop in batting averages is due to the use of wooden bats as opposed to the aluminum bats.  And a deeper look at more complex numbers may show the same thing.  The question becomes, how long does it take to become fully accustomed to the use of wooden bats?

I would be wary, as the United States has failed to place higher than fourth in first two World Baseball Classics and has only one gold and two bronze medals to show for their efforts in the Olympics since it became a medal sport in 1992, that American baseball players are lagging behind the rest of the world.  As we try to reclaim dominance in our “National Pastime” colleges and even high schools may want to look to the use of wooden bats to offer players as many advantages as possible and ensure that the list of past Cape Cod League stars reads like a “Who’s Who” in baseball.

The Power Shift is on in MLB

Watching the parade of bike riders with steroid infused legs and doped blood in the Tour de France allows for the realization that the steroid era may be over in Major League Baseball, although I would like to see the results on a test of Jose Bautista. Taking a look back there is one interesting trend that shows itself in the numbers, a puzzling power shift.

Double play partners in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s usually consisted of a slugging shortstop and a similarly slugging second baseman. The emergence of names such as Robinson Cano (see the most recent Homerun Derby), Dustin Pedroia (2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP), Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, and Ian Kinsler just to name a few have made shortstops slight relative to their double play partners. This power shift even defies the drop in power recognized with the end of the dark ages of steroids.

In the 2003 season second baseman combined to hit 415 homeruns and post a .405 slugging percentage. That same season, a season now buried in steroid controversy, shortstops combined to belt 422 homers with a .397 slugging percentage. Given the sample size of 19006 at-bats and 18610 at-bats, for second baseman and shortstops respectively, these numbers are remarkably similar.

Fast-forward seven years to the end of the 2010 season and an interesting trend can be noticed. This season saw second baseman hit 409 homeruns while slugging .389. Second baseman, overall, had 250 fewer at-bats in 2010 so their at-bat per homerun ratio is almost identical between the two seasons (45.8 in 2003, 45.86 in 2010). Shortstops in 2010, however, saw the total number of homeruns drop to 313 and their slugging percentage to .374. While they too came to the plate more often in 2003, 194 fewer at-bats in 2010, their at-bat to homerun ratio climbed from 44.1 in 2003 to 58.8 in 2010.

Several different questions arise along with these numbers. The first is what about the relative age of the players?

In the 2010 season the average age of the men who started the most games at second base for each team was exactly 29 years of age; the average age in 2003—28.7. This is not a huge difference. The difference in the age of the shortstops is more significant. The average age of the players who started the most games at shortstop for each team in 2010 was 28.2 years; the average age in 2003—26.9. So the difference in the average age gaps over the period of time is an entire year. This is not a minor difference in age, but it is one that arguably should not be responsible for the power shift that occurred.

Secondly what were the power numbers like at the other positions during this period bridging the steroid era and an era of hopefully clean players?

From 2003 to 2010 no defensive position, or the DH, saw the number of combined homeruns hit increase. In fact two positions, shortstop and leftfield, saw their homerun totals drop by more than 25%. By far the smallest drop was recognized at second base, 1.5%. The only other position that saw their homerun total drop by less than 5% was first base, a 4.2% drop. So the power in the bats of second basemen last season stands in contrast to the drooping bats of their teammates since the 2003 height of the steroid era.

So what do all of these numbers mean?

There is a remarkable crop of second basemen playing in the Majors right now. This power shift will inevitably swing back to the other side of the second base bag at some point. But for now stars of today such as Cano, Pedroia, Utley, Uggla, Kinsler, Rickie Weeks, and Brandon Phillips have replaced the shortstop crop of the late 90’s and early 2000’s: Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Barry Larkin, Jimmy Rollins, and Edgar Renteria.  For those teams in contention, it is difficult to overcome a deficiency at second base in the lineup if they wish to continue to contend.

When you turn on a game in the coming week take a look at the guy playing second base, he is probably the one you want to be keeping an eye on, at least for now.