While the AL wildcard race has become increasingly murky, the AL MVP race has become increasingly clear in my mind. The choice that has become increasingly clear in my mind took some prodding to arrive at. The clear choice—Justin Verlander.
While many voters and reporters often remove pitchers from the MVP consideration because they are not everyday players, I believe that Verlander is still the most valuable player in the American League. There are several different reasons for this.
The first is a point that was just recently brought to my attention, and one that is incredibly simple I am shocked I haven’t thought of it earlier. The fact of the matter is that position players earn recognition in an MVP race almost entirely based on what they do when they step into the batter’s box. While pitchers earn recognition based on how they pitch to the batters that they face. That is to say that as long as a player is adequate playing defense, then it will neither count for nor against the player in MVP consideration.
That being said Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista (three position players mentioned at the top of the MVP list) have come to the plate 679, 654, and 612 times respectively. They have each had that many opportunities to help their team score runs. Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That is how many times he has been called on to help his team. So while he may only pitch every five days or so, he has been called upon to help his team more than any of the leading offensive candidates.
For all of you defensive gurus out there, I haven’t completely ignored this part of the game. The WAR (wins above replacement player) is a measure that has become more broadly used in baseball circles as a measure of a players value to their team. For the position players, their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is taken into account when calculating their total WAR. The leaders in the MVP race, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista have WAR ratings of 7.2, 5.2, and 8.5 respectively. One of them, Curtis Granderson has a negative defensive WAR rating, which means that the average player at his position is a better fielder than he is.
The number that we should consider is the 8.5 WAR rating of Jose Bautista. This is tied for the highest WAR rating in the American League with…yup, Justin Verlander. Verlander has earned this extraordinary WAR rating by leading the league in ERA, ERA+ (which is adjusted for the pitcher’s ballpark), WHIP, strikeouts, winning percentage, wins, and innings pitched. Leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts is the pitcher’s equivalent of the triple crown.
To put his season in perspective, he has as many wins as Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Billingsley combined, and they both have a higher average run support per game than Verlander. If he does notch his 25th win, he will be the first to do so since Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics in 1990. He is the first pitcher since Ron Guidry in 1978 to post 24 wins with at least 240 strikeouts. He has notched 12 consecutive wins coming down the stretch as the Tigers have clinched the AL Central title, and a spot in the playoffs.
While Bautista has had a monster year, he will be watching October baseball from the comfort of his couch. Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury have not had the same impact for their teams as Verlander has. Verlander’s year, while it may only be 33 games, has been insanely impressive and as I have already shown, 33 games of action have been more than enough to put him in the company of the position players in this race.
thebullpenblogger 