AL MVP Race: Singing a Different Tune

While the AL wildcard race has become increasingly murky, the AL MVP race has become increasingly clear in my mind. The choice that has become increasingly clear in my mind took some prodding to arrive at. The clear choice—Justin Verlander.

While many voters and reporters often remove pitchers from the MVP consideration because they are not everyday players, I believe that Verlander is still the most valuable player in the American League. There are several different reasons for this.

The first is a point that was just recently brought to my attention, and one that is incredibly simple I am shocked I haven’t thought of it earlier. The fact of the matter is that position players earn recognition in an MVP race almost entirely based on what they do when they step into the batter’s box. While pitchers earn recognition based on how they pitch to the batters that they face. That is to say that as long as a player is adequate playing defense, then it will neither count for nor against the player in MVP consideration.

That being said Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista (three position players mentioned at the top of the MVP list) have come to the plate 679, 654, and 612 times respectively. They have each had that many opportunities to help their team score runs. Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That is how many times he has been called on to help his team. So while he may only pitch every five days or so, he has been called upon to help his team more than any of the leading offensive candidates.

For all of you defensive gurus out there, I haven’t completely ignored this part of the game. The WAR (wins above replacement player) is a measure that has become more broadly used in baseball circles as a measure of a players value to their team. For the position players, their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is taken into account when calculating their total WAR. The leaders in the MVP race, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista have WAR ratings of 7.2, 5.2, and 8.5 respectively. One of them, Curtis Granderson has a negative defensive WAR rating, which means that the average player at his position is a better fielder than he is.

The number that we should consider is the 8.5 WAR rating of Jose Bautista. This is tied for the highest WAR rating in the American League with…yup, Justin Verlander. Verlander has earned this extraordinary WAR rating by leading the league in ERA, ERA+ (which is adjusted for the pitcher’s ballpark), WHIP, strikeouts, winning percentage, wins, and innings pitched. Leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts is the pitcher’s equivalent of the triple crown.

To put his season in perspective, he has as many wins as Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Billingsley combined, and they both have a higher average run support per game than Verlander. If he does notch his 25th win, he will be the first to do so since Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics in 1990. He is the first pitcher since Ron Guidry in 1978 to post 24 wins with at least 240 strikeouts. He has notched 12 consecutive wins coming down the stretch as the Tigers have clinched the AL Central title, and a spot in the playoffs.

While Bautista has had a monster year, he will be watching October baseball from the comfort of his couch. Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury have not had the same impact for their teams as Verlander has. Verlander’s year, while it may only be 33 games, has been insanely impressive and as I have already shown, 33 games of action have been more than enough to put him in the company of the position players in this race.

Sabathia is Tough, But Not Tough Enough

Last night may have been C.C. Sabathia’s most important start of the year.  He threw 128 pitches, the second most in his career, scattered 10 hits, resulting in only 2 runs over 6 innings and ultimately a win against bitter division rival and leader the Boston Red Sox.  While it may have been enough for a win in the game, it was not nearly enough for another win that Sabathia has been chasing.

The Cy Young award, given to the best pitcher in each league, would appear to be a race between Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and maybe some other minor contenders.  Sabathia’s performance last night may have been good enough for a victory against the Red Sox, but he will be thankful that he does not have a Cy Young related incentive in his contract because it was not good enough to win that award.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.  Against the three teams that find themselves atop the three divisions in the American League (Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox) Sabathia’s numbers have been less than stellar.  His ERA for the season is 2.99.  His ERA in his starts against those three teams so far this season—5.54.  He has posted an 18-7 record this year, but is only 3-5 against those three teams.

Justin Verlander’s numbers tell a different story.  His ERA for the season is 2.38.  Due to the fact that his team is in first place in the Central division, I calculated his results again the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees.  The Yankees, it appears, will make the playoffs even if they finish second in the division, they boast the third best record in the Majors, and have scored the most runs in the Majors so far this year.  So what is Verlander’s ERA against those three teams?  2.70—close to his season average.  His 20-5 record is aided by a 1-1 record in his starts against the three teams in question.

While neither has been overly impressive against the other best teams in the American League so far this year, Verlander has pitched close to his stellar averages.  Sabathia has taken huge steps backward against the toughest competition.  This race, in my mind, is over and Justin Verlander is the pinnacle of pitching performance in the American League.