The Future of American Golf: The Story Told By the Last 6 Majors

At the ripe age of 42 this past weekend, Darren Clarke won his first major championship.  His win was interesting for several different reasons.  For the first time since 1910 two different men from the same country, excluding the United States, won back-to-back major championships in golf.  Clarke joined his Northern Irish countryman and U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy in securing this milestone.  Secondly, it marked the sixth straight major in which a man from the United States has been crowned champion, the longest such drought for America in the modern construction of the major championships in golf.  So who will finally end this drought?

With the precipitous fall of Tiger Woods and uncertainty surrounding his return, America is searching for the next golf prodigy to get excited about.  Currently the top 2 Americans in the world golf rankings, Steve Stricker (No. 5) and Phil Mickelson (No. 6), are 44 and 41 years-of-age respectively.  The average age of the 4 Europeans ahead of them in the rankings is under 30.  So what do the results of the last six majors, yielding 0 American champions, tell us about the future of American golf?

The 2010 U.S. Open 

            Captured by Graeme McDowell, from Northern Ireland, the U.S. Open, in hindsight now, is an odd snapshot of what the golf world was becoming.

McDowell became the first of three Northern Irishman to capture a major title over the next six; Clarke and McIlroy would join him.  Woods, Mickelson, and Davis Love III would place in the top 10, representing the ever-aging stars of American golf.  Dustin Johnson, then 25, started the final round 3 shots clear of the field, but would shot an 11-over par, 82, to finish in a tie for 8th—the first breakdown in a major he would suffer.  Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker were relatively young Americans who would flash in a major and stick around for the year, but regress in 2011 culminating in missed cuts at the most recent British Open.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Comfortable.

The 2010 British Open 

            Louis Oosthuizen, a 27-year old South African, lapped the rest of the field on his way to a 7-stroke victory at St. Andrews.  Two of those men that he lapped were Sean O’Hair and Nick Watney, the only Americans to place in the top 10.  O’Hair, who had placed in the top 15 of 6 of the previous 18 majors he had appeared in, walked away in a tie for 7th place.  What has O’Hair done in majors since?  Missed the cut in all three of his starts.  Nick Watney, who had had a top 10 finish in the 2010 Masters, was one of the three men to tie with O’Hair.  While he would finish in a tie for 18th in the final major of 2010, he has a 46th place finish and two missed cuts in the three majors of 2011.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Fine.

The 2010 PGA Championship 

            A 3-hole playoff was needed to crown the 25-year old from Germany, Martin Kaymer.  He would beat out fan favorite and American Bubba Watson by a single stroke on the final playoff hole.

Watson headed a group of 5 Americans that finished in the top 10; he has finished no higher than a tie for 30th in three majors in 2011.  Zach Johnson, 2007 Masters champion, found his second top 10 finish in 15 major appearances since that title, he had missed 5 cuts in that same time period.  In 2011, one missed cut and one top 25 in the three majors.  Jason Dufner, 33 at the time, found his first top 10 at a major, tying for 5th.  He has missed the cut at the two majors he has appeared in since making it 5 missed cuts at majors in 10 career appearances.  Matt Kuchar showed his face in the top 10 of another 2010 major, but has yet to do so again.  The final American in the top 10 was Dustin Johnson.  Johnson actually finished higher than Kuchar, but I saved him for last because this is the second breakdown he would suffer in the year.  On the final hole he needed a par to grab the title, he would bogey.  Even worse, after the hole was completed it was brought to his attention that he had grounded his club in a bunker that had been walked in all week by spectators, a now infamous ruling, so a two-stroke penalty was assessed and he failed to qualify for the playoff.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Exciting.

The 2011 Masters

The Masters, the first major of the year, was a completely lackluster performance for young American golfers.  A South African, Charl Schwartzel who had an unprecedented run on the final 4 holes, captured the tournament.

The tournament saw 3 Americans finish in the top 10, one of which was Tiger Woods.  The others:  Bo Van Pelt and Ryan Palmer.  Van Pelt, 36, who has one other top 15 finish in 17 career starts at majors, has missed the cut in 5 majors.  Palmer, 34, found his only top 20 finish in 11 career majors at Augusta; he has missed the cut 4 times in a major.  Neither of these golfers, however, has missed the cut in the other two majors in 2011.

One word describing the future of American golf:  Questionable.

The 2011 U.S. Open 

            The clear storyline of this major was the wire-to-wire, Tiger-esque dominance displayed by the 22-year old Rory McIlroy on his way to an 8-stroke victory.

As for the Americans in the tournament, two finished in the top 10:  Kevin Chappell and Robert Garrigus.  Chappell, 25, played his way into the top 10 on the final day with a 5-under, 66.  To date it is his only major appearance.  He tied for 3rd place with three other golfers, including Robert Garrigus.  Garrigus, 33, has appeared in 4 majors spread out over 8 years; this was the only time he made the cut.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Disappearing.

The 2011 British Open

            Darren Clarke, a fan favorite at Royal St. George’s, triumphed by three strokes in a tournament that saw scores fluctuate in windy weather conditions.  This tournament, however, was not free of its fair share of American influence.

Six Americans would place in the top 10.  Three of them (Mickelson, Love III, and Chad Campbell), however, are passed their prime and once again do not represent the future of American golf.  Some other familiar American names were spotted in the top 10.  Finishing in a tie for 5th, the 22-year old Rickie Fowler claimed his first top 10 finish in his 7th career major, but his play has been inconsistent.  Anthony Kim (26), also tying for 5th, broke into the top 10 for the first time since the 2010 Masters; his finishes in three other majors since then, two missed cuts and a tie for 54th.  The American name highest on the leader board was none other than Dustin Johnson.  Johnson started the final round 1-stroke behind Clarke, and, playing in the final group would blast a two-iron out of bounds on the 14th hole on his way to a double bogey and a final round 72 (+2).

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Unknown.

The most promising names are:  Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Matt Kuchar, and Dustin Johnson.  Kim, and Fowler, although not mentioned, need to become consistent players on tour every single week to be comfortable.  Watney and Kuchar need to make a move at the PGA Championship this year to regain some confidence.  Dustin Johnson’s most desperate need?  A really good sports psychologist.  He needs to not become Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson of old, or end up Colin Montgomerie.

Overall the future of American golf, while boasting some young guns, is not even close to being certain.  And the biggest challengers to the young Europeans seem to be coming from South Africa, Asia, and the annals of U.S. golf.  We need a new Tiger, but they are an endangered species here in the United States.