Honorable Numbers

My previous two posts focused on the outstanding career of Jim Thome and the debate about the legacy that he leaves behind, and the future he will find in baseball history.  Watching the Red Sox, the other night, enticed me to write one more blog about the Hall of Fame debate (and then I will get back to more analysis).

On Sunday, Tim Wakefield struck out his 2,000^th batter as a member of the Boston Red Sox.  The only other player to reach that milestone in a Red Sox uniform?  Roger Clemens.  This solidifies Wakefield’s place as a Red Sox great.  Sure, he is not one of the best players to don the classic uniform, but 185 of his career 199 wins and 2,000 of his career 2,110 strikeouts have come with Boston.  He has been a part of some of the worst times, he surrendered the game 7 winning homerun to Aaron Boone in the 2003 ALCS against the Yankees, and the best times, he has seen two World Series parades through the streets of Boston.  There are two other members of the Red Sox that will find their names mentioned in Red Sox lore for years to come:  Jason Varitek and David Ortiz.

Varitek has never been an outstanding offensive threat.  He does, however, command respect in baseball circles.  This is because with four no-hitters, Varitek has caught more no-hitters than any other catcher in the history of Major League Baseball.  He has helped bring up what is one of the best, young rotations currently in the Majors.  He has caught more games for the Red Sox than anyone.  David Ortiz, the man of two legendary walk-off hits against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, recorded his 1,000^th RBI with the Red Sox.  Can you name the five other players to reach this milestone?  You may recognize a few of the names:  Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, and Bobby Doerr.

There is no question that these players have found a permanent place in Red Sox history, but none of them may wind up with careers worthy of the Hall of Fame.  This brings me to the point of this blog.  In my previous blog, I stated that I thought the Hall of Fame was, “a place to honor the greatest players who have simultaneously been ambassadors to the game, treating it with the dignity and respect that it deserves.”  There is another way to honor those players who are not worthy of the Hall, but have been vital to a team and been one of the greats in the organization—retire their numbers.

Johnny Damon, a former Red Sox (among other teams), is now 37 and still producing at a high level and adding to career numbers that will warrant serious Hall consideration.  Johnny Damon, whose longest stint with a team is six seasons, has not been with one club long enough to cement a legacy like Wakefield, Varitek and Ortiz have.  He does not deserve to have his number retired by any of the now 6 different teams that he has played for.  Wakefield, Varitek and Ortiz may all find their respective numbers in the rafters of Fenway Park one day however.

While this a minor discrepancy, it is a debate that I have had with friends before and it is my firm stance that a player does not have to Hall of Fame caliber to have his number retired, and a Hall of Famer may not be worthy of having his number retired.  You decide who should have their numbers retired for your team.

When Should the Hall Call?

My previous blog was about Jim Thome and the slugger’s pursuit of 600 career homeruns.  After posting this blog, it became clear to me that I wanted to make it known to Skip Bayless that I not only thought that it was clear that Thome had earned a spot in Cooperstown as a Hall-of-Famer, but that his approach to the game and life had earned him a spot as a baseball titan.

Mr. Bayless, a journalist who can be found each morning on ESPN’s First Take, tweeted that he does not believe Jim Thome has earned a place in Cooperstown.  He believes a man who has never finished higher than fourth in an MVP vote, and led the league in homers only once should find his face on a plaque among the all-time greats.  Mr. Bayless also said that he “despises” the use of milestones in a career as conditions for entry into the Hall-of-Fame.  Upon reading this, I realized that I have had debates about similar topics many different times.

The Hall-of-Fame, in my opinion, is a place to honor the greatest players who have simultaneously been ambassadors to the game, treating it with the dignity and respect that it deserves.  Pete Rose, an all-time great, did not treat the game with the utmost respect and does not belong in Cooperstown.  Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and many other greats tainted with steroids, have also forfeited their claim to a place in Cooperstown.  There are also a slew of players who have been wonderful ambassadors to the game, but have not been able to play at a similarly wonderful level.

Once again, in my opinion, there is no question that Jim Thome has, throughout the course of his career, been an ambassador to the game and has not tarnished his own or the game’s reputation.  He has a career .277 batting average, which is not overwhelming; but his .403 career OBP is impressive.  His 596 homers already places him at a number that only 4 other players have been able to reach without the use of steroids:  Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Ken Griffey Jr.  Milestones may not be as vital to enshrinement as people make them out to be, but Thome has hit the 5^th most homers, the most valuable hit in baseball, of all time.

Numbers aside, Mr. Bayless argued that Thome is not a superstar, that if you need any amount of time to think about a players name, he has not made himself a Hall-of-Famer.  I do not believe that a player must also market himself so that he is known by a wide audience to earn a place in Cooperstown.  Sure Thome doesn’t have Cameron Diaz placing popcorn into his mouth, he has never faced charges of sexual misconduct, and he doesn’t have a Twitter account where he posts witty comments.  But is this a bad thing?  Thome played in an era when so many players were in the news for all of the wrong reasons: players coming before grand juries, players being named in the Mitchell Report and Jose Canseco books, players facing criminal charges, etc.  Thome has, by his own choice, remained out of the spotlight in many respects.

Joe Posnanski once wrote an article for Sports Illustrated about one of the all-time great baseball players who is enshrined in Cooperstown—Stan Musial.  Posnanski continually points out in his article that Musial, always the quiet star, never sought the headlines, but instead spoke with his bat.  Thome has done the same.  Thome has never made $20 million in a year.  He didn’t play for the Yankees or Braves in the 90’s, so he doesn’t have any World Series rings; but he did help the 1997 Indians get to the World Series and he performed well in the Series.

In short, Jim Thome has earned a spot in the Hall-of-Fame with his play on the diamond, in my mind.  Also, in an era when some of the most memorable names in baseball are etched in darkness, the fact that Jim Thome’s name doesn’t jump out should not count against him enough to keep him out of Cooperstown.  Just as Stan Musial was outshined by some his contemporaries, Thome too, has undoubtedly been outshined by some of his peers.  His longevity, however, as a great player is Cooperstown worthy and I look forward to the speech of family man.

The Legend Grows, but Nobody Knows

Deadline deals, skids and streaks, injuries, and rehabs.  These are the storylines that continue to dominate the mid-summer baseball news.  There is another story, however, that is more remarkable, one that will live in the annals of baseball for years to come.

Jim Thome, currently the designated hitter for the Minnesota Twins, has cranked 596 career homeruns.  596!  With 4 more to go until he joins the elite 600 club, Thome has remained out of the spotlight, and there are some understandable reasons for this.  First, the Minnesota Twins, as a team, have been decimated by injuries and have under-performed their way to a 46-53 record that is good for fourth place in the AL Central.  Secondly, Thome has slugged only 7 homeruns in 130 at-bats this year while hitting a meager .215.  There are some real reasons, however, that this historic run should be getting more coverage than it has been.

Playing most of his career in the steroid era, allegations of steroid use have not come close to the career of Jim Thome.  He has remained completely clean.  If we remove those players who have used steroids to aide their careers, the list of players Thome trails in career homeruns is:  Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Ken Griffey Jr.  This elite company will earn Thome a place in Cooperstown with a Cleveland Indians logo emblazoned on his hat, but it should also earn him a spot as a baseball titan.

While there are currently 596 tape-measure moon shot reasons to pay attention to this story, there are also 10 more reasons.  Thome is putting every single one of his 10 nieces and nephews, not to mention the two children of his own, through college.  While headlines of athletes blowing money at nightclubs, on wild trips, and huge speeding tickets saturate all sports, Thome has made a different decision about what is important—family.  In 2007, 464 major leaguers voted Jim Thome the second friendliest player in MLB.  He has earned the admiration of his fans, the awe of baseball historians, and the respect of his peers.

With the exception of those teams that he has faced so many times in the AL Central as a member of the Indians (Tigers, White Sox, Royals, and Twins), Thome has hit his most career homeruns against the Boston Red Sox.  As a Red Sox fan, I can only tip my hat in thanks to a man who has treated the game with dignity and silently been one of the great sluggers of all-time while being an outstanding man both on and off the field.  While much of America will not be looking for those last 4 dingers, I will be waiting with baited breath for Jim Thome to crack 600 and hopefully garner the attention that he deserves.

The Future of American Golf: The Story Told By the Last 6 Majors

At the ripe age of 42 this past weekend, Darren Clarke won his first major championship.  His win was interesting for several different reasons.  For the first time since 1910 two different men from the same country, excluding the United States, won back-to-back major championships in golf.  Clarke joined his Northern Irish countryman and U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy in securing this milestone.  Secondly, it marked the sixth straight major in which a man from the United States has been crowned champion, the longest such drought for America in the modern construction of the major championships in golf.  So who will finally end this drought?

With the precipitous fall of Tiger Woods and uncertainty surrounding his return, America is searching for the next golf prodigy to get excited about.  Currently the top 2 Americans in the world golf rankings, Steve Stricker (No. 5) and Phil Mickelson (No. 6), are 44 and 41 years-of-age respectively.  The average age of the 4 Europeans ahead of them in the rankings is under 30.  So what do the results of the last six majors, yielding 0 American champions, tell us about the future of American golf?

The 2010 U.S. Open 

            Captured by Graeme McDowell, from Northern Ireland, the U.S. Open, in hindsight now, is an odd snapshot of what the golf world was becoming.

McDowell became the first of three Northern Irishman to capture a major title over the next six; Clarke and McIlroy would join him.  Woods, Mickelson, and Davis Love III would place in the top 10, representing the ever-aging stars of American golf.  Dustin Johnson, then 25, started the final round 3 shots clear of the field, but would shot an 11-over par, 82, to finish in a tie for 8^th—the first breakdown in a major he would suffer.  Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker were relatively young Americans who would flash in a major and stick around for the year, but regress in 2011 culminating in missed cuts at the most recent British Open.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Comfortable.

The 2010 British Open 

            Louis Oosthuizen, a 27-year old South African, lapped the rest of the field on his way to a 7-stroke victory at St. Andrews.  Two of those men that he lapped were Sean O’Hair and Nick Watney, the only Americans to place in the top 10.  O’Hair, who had placed in the top 15 of 6 of the previous 18 majors he had appeared in, walked away in a tie for 7^th place.  What has O’Hair done in majors since?  Missed the cut in all three of his starts.  Nick Watney, who had had a top 10 finish in the 2010 Masters, was one of the three men to tie with O’Hair.  While he would finish in a tie for 18^th in the final major of 2010, he has a 46^th place finish and two missed cuts in the three majors of 2011.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Fine.

The 2010 PGA Championship 

            A 3-hole playoff was needed to crown the 25-year old from Germany, Martin Kaymer.  He would beat out fan favorite and American Bubba Watson by a single stroke on the final playoff hole.

Watson headed a group of 5 Americans that finished in the top 10; he has finished no higher than a tie for 30^th in three majors in 2011.  Zach Johnson, 2007 Masters champion, found his second top 10 finish in 15 major appearances since that title, he had missed 5 cuts in that same time period.  In 2011, one missed cut and one top 25 in the three majors.  Jason Dufner, 33 at the time, found his first top 10 at a major, tying for 5^th.  He has missed the cut at the two majors he has appeared in since making it 5 missed cuts at majors in 10 career appearances.  Matt Kuchar showed his face in the top 10 of another 2010 major, but has yet to do so again.  The final American in the top 10 was Dustin Johnson.  Johnson actually finished higher than Kuchar, but I saved him for last because this is the second breakdown he would suffer in the year.  On the final hole he needed a par to grab the title, he would bogey.  Even worse, after the hole was completed it was brought to his attention that he had grounded his club in a bunker that had been walked in all week by spectators, a now infamous ruling, so a two-stroke penalty was assessed and he failed to qualify for the playoff.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Exciting.

The 2011 Masters

The Masters, the first major of the year, was a completely lackluster performance for young American golfers.  A South African, Charl Schwartzel who had an unprecedented run on the final 4 holes, captured the tournament.

The tournament saw 3 Americans finish in the top 10, one of which was Tiger Woods.  The others:  Bo Van Pelt and Ryan Palmer.  Van Pelt, 36, who has one other top 15 finish in 17 career starts at majors, has missed the cut in 5 majors.  Palmer, 34, found his only top 20 finish in 11 career majors at Augusta; he has missed the cut 4 times in a major.  Neither of these golfers, however, has missed the cut in the other two majors in 2011.

One word describing the future of American golf:  Questionable.

The 2011 U.S. Open 

            The clear storyline of this major was the wire-to-wire, Tiger-esque dominance displayed by the 22-year old Rory McIlroy on his way to an 8-stroke victory.

As for the Americans in the tournament, two finished in the top 10:  Kevin Chappell and Robert Garrigus.  Chappell, 25, played his way into the top 10 on the final day with a 5-under, 66.  To date it is his only major appearance.  He tied for 3^rd place with three other golfers, including Robert Garrigus.  Garrigus, 33, has appeared in 4 majors spread out over 8 years; this was the only time he made the cut.

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Disappearing.

The 2011 British Open

            Darren Clarke, a fan favorite at Royal St. George’s, triumphed by three strokes in a tournament that saw scores fluctuate in windy weather conditions.  This tournament, however, was not free of its fair share of American influence.

Six Americans would place in the top 10.  Three of them (Mickelson, Love III, and Chad Campbell), however, are passed their prime and once again do not represent the future of American golf.  Some other familiar American names were spotted in the top 10.  Finishing in a tie for 5^th, the 22-year old Rickie Fowler claimed his first top 10 finish in his 7^th career major, but his play has been inconsistent.  Anthony Kim (26), also tying for 5^th, broke into the top 10 for the first time since the 2010 Masters; his finishes in three other majors since then, two missed cuts and a tie for 54^th.  The American name highest on the leader board was none other than Dustin Johnson.  Johnson started the final round 1-stroke behind Clarke, and, playing in the final group would blast a two-iron out of bounds on the 14^th hole on his way to a double bogey and a final round 72 (+2).

One word describing the future of American golf at the time:  Unknown.

The most promising names are:  Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Matt Kuchar, and Dustin Johnson.  Kim, and Fowler, although not mentioned, need to become consistent players on tour every single week to be comfortable.  Watney and Kuchar need to make a move at the PGA Championship this year to regain some confidence.  Dustin Johnson’s most desperate need?  A really good sports psychologist.  He needs to not become Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson of old, or end up Colin Montgomerie.

Overall the future of American golf, while boasting some young guns, is not even close to being certain.  And the biggest challengers to the young Europeans seem to be coming from South Africa, Asia, and the annals of U.S. golf.  We need a new Tiger, but they are an endangered species here in the United States.

Cape Cod League and Reclaiming Our “National Pastime”

This week, while on vacation in Cape Cod, I have had the luxury of getting to see numerous Cape Cod League baseball games.  The Cape Cod League is an elite summer league for some of the best collegiate players in the country.  Getting a chance to watch the Bourne Braves the other night, however, brought me to a disturbing revelation, that college baseball may be hurting American baseball players in the long term.

One of the most widely praised aspect of Cape Cod League ball is that they play with wooden bats, instead of the aluminum bats that are solely used in the NCAA conferences.  But does this put them at a disadvantage?

Many American players get used to the aluminum bats for years, often including high school, and then have to go into the minor leagues and acclimate themselves to using wooden bats.  This year in the Cape Cod League there are only 11 players with batting averages over .300, and only 6 with averages over .310.  Seven of the 11 players with averages over .300 have lower batting averages then their most recent college season.

A regression analysis could show that part of this drop in batting averages is due to the use of wooden bats as opposed to the aluminum bats.  And a deeper look at more complex numbers may show the same thing.  The question becomes, how long does it take to become fully accustomed to the use of wooden bats?

I would be wary, as the United States has failed to place higher than fourth in first two World Baseball Classics and has only one gold and two bronze medals to show for their efforts in the Olympics since it became a medal sport in 1992, that American baseball players are lagging behind the rest of the world.  As we try to reclaim dominance in our “National Pastime” colleges and even high schools may want to look to the use of wooden bats to offer players as many advantages as possible and ensure that the list of past Cape Cod League stars reads like a “Who’s Who” in baseball.

The Power Shift is on in MLB

Watching the parade of bike riders with steroid infused legs and doped blood in the Tour de France allows for the realization that the steroid era may be over in Major League Baseball, although I would like to see the results on a test of Jose Bautista. Taking a look back there is one interesting trend that shows itself in the numbers, a puzzling power shift.

Double play partners in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s usually consisted of a slugging shortstop and a similarly slugging second baseman. The emergence of names such as Robinson Cano (see the most recent Homerun Derby), Dustin Pedroia (2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP), Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, and Ian Kinsler just to name a few have made shortstops slight relative to their double play partners. This power shift even defies the drop in power recognized with the end of the dark ages of steroids.

In the 2003 season second baseman combined to hit 415 homeruns and post a .405 slugging percentage. That same season, a season now buried in steroid controversy, shortstops combined to belt 422 homers with a .397 slugging percentage. Given the sample size of 19006 at-bats and 18610 at-bats, for second baseman and shortstops respectively, these numbers are remarkably similar.

Fast-forward seven years to the end of the 2010 season and an interesting trend can be noticed. This season saw second baseman hit 409 homeruns while slugging .389. Second baseman, overall, had 250 fewer at-bats in 2010 so their at-bat per homerun ratio is almost identical between the two seasons (45.8 in 2003, 45.86 in 2010). Shortstops in 2010, however, saw the total number of homeruns drop to 313 and their slugging percentage to .374. While they too came to the plate more often in 2003, 194 fewer at-bats in 2010, their at-bat to homerun ratio climbed from 44.1 in 2003 to 58.8 in 2010.

Several different questions arise along with these numbers. The first is what about the relative age of the players?

In the 2010 season the average age of the men who started the most games at second base for each team was exactly 29 years of age; the average age in 2003—28.7. This is not a huge difference. The difference in the age of the shortstops is more significant. The average age of the players who started the most games at shortstop for each team in 2010 was 28.2 years; the average age in 2003—26.9. So the difference in the average age gaps over the period of time is an entire year. This is not a minor difference in age, but it is one that arguably should not be responsible for the power shift that occurred.

Secondly what were the power numbers like at the other positions during this period bridging the steroid era and an era of hopefully clean players?

From 2003 to 2010 no defensive position, or the DH, saw the number of combined homeruns hit increase. In fact two positions, shortstop and leftfield, saw their homerun totals drop by more than 25%. By far the smallest drop was recognized at second base, 1.5%. The only other position that saw their homerun total drop by less than 5% was first base, a 4.2% drop. So the power in the bats of second basemen last season stands in contrast to the drooping bats of their teammates since the 2003 height of the steroid era.

So what do all of these numbers mean?

There is a remarkable crop of second basemen playing in the Majors right now. This power shift will inevitably swing back to the other side of the second base bag at some point. But for now stars of today such as Cano, Pedroia, Utley, Uggla, Kinsler, Rickie Weeks, and Brandon Phillips have replaced the shortstop crop of the late 90’s and early 2000’s: Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Barry Larkin, Jimmy Rollins, and Edgar Renteria.  For those teams in contention, it is difficult to overcome a deficiency at second base in the lineup if they wish to continue to contend.

When you turn on a game in the coming week take a look at the guy playing second base, he is probably the one you want to be keeping an eye on, at least for now.

MLB Mid-Season Awards

Ladies and Gentlemen, it is time for the red carpet event that everyone cringes at—the All-Star Game.  Even players voted in don’t want to appear, it has become a complete charade similar to the Pro Bowl in the NFL.  But one good thing does come from the arrival of this red carpet event—mid-season awards (which are actually meaningless, but no more so than the All-Star Game).

Manager of the Year:

AL—Manny Acta (Indians)

It is important to remember that this award is for the first half of the season only.  I fully expect Acta to fall out of the top at the end-of-the-year ballot.  For the first half of the season, however, Acta has taken an Indians team that was written off before the season began to a battle for division supremacy.  This team is unfortunately moving in the wrong direction and I do not expect them to be in the same battle it is now come September.  Look for Joe Maddon (Rays), Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Eric Wedge (Mariners), or even Terry Francona (Red Sox) to top the ballots at the end of the year.

NL—Clint Hurdle (Pirates)

            The runaway answer here is Hurdle.  The Pirates, yes the same pathetic Pirates that have 18 consecutive losing seasons under their belts, find themselves 1 game behind the Brewers and Cardinals in the NL Central and 4 games above the .500 mark.  This is really all the information that is needed to settle this dispute, just look at their roster and try to wrap your head around their success.  Honorable mentions here go to Kirk Gibson (D’Backs), Terry Collins (Mets), and Fredi Gonzalez (Braves).

Rookies of the Year:

AL—Michael Pineda (P-Mariners)

            In the interest of not awarding a “Co-RotY” I chose Pineda over Rays rookie hurler Jeremy Hellickson.  Their ERAs (number of earned runs divided by innings pitched multiplied by 9), WHIPs (Walks plus hits per inning pitched), and other measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness are very similar, and they have done so against similar levels of competition.  The metrics that do set Pineda apart?  His strike out per 9 innings mark of 9.0 leads ALL AL pitchers, not just rookies and his 3.14 strikeout to walk ratio places him in the top 25 pitchers in the Majors.

NL—Danny Espinosa (2B-Nationals)

            Just like the race for Manager of the Year honors, the race is much more clearcut in the NL.  Espinosa, the rookie who is actually doing something for the Nationals right NOW (see Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg), is making a name for himself.  Playing at the new power position in the Majors, second base, Espinosa has belted 16 homers to go along with 15 doubles and 4 triples.  While his numbers are not overly impressive .242/.332/.460 they are good enough to win him the honors over a pair of Braves young-guns, Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman, trying to capture what Jason Heyward couldn’t last year.

Cy Young Award:

AL—Justin Verlander (Tigers)

            This is a multi-horse race that is very close and will not be decided on first half performance.  Jared Weaver leads the league with a sub-2.00 ERA.  C.C. Sabathia is racking up wins faster than jurors are being selected for the Roger Clemens trial.  Josh Beckett, Dan Haren and James Shields are putting together seasons that are the envy of so many pitchers around the league.  All of those names being considered it is Verlander who is in the top 3 of every major pitching category and whose stuff appears to be most feared by hitters.  He lasts late in games, in 13 of his 20 starts he has recorded at least 23 outs, and he has a no-hitter (not to mention the other one he took into the 8^th inning).  This is an impressive year for AL pitchers, but Verlander puts himself above the rest.  Oh and the Tigers fired their pitching coach for the pitiful performance of the other pitchers on their roster.

NL—Roy Halladay (Phillies)

            I know it’s a boring pick, and I wanted to spice things up and go with Jair Jurrjens, but Halladay has just been too good.  Halladay’s ERA may be higher, but his WHIP is lower and his strikeout to walk ratio is an astronomical 8.12 (to Jurrjens’ 2.60).  Halladay is more durable (he has thrown 33.2 innings more) and induces ground balls at a much higher rate than Jurrjens, making it easier on his defense and keeping himself out of trouble.  Once again the fact of the matter is Halladay, not Jurrjens, is more feared by hitters and the movement and control on his pitches is incredible.  Don’t be surprised if Jurrjens sees that ERA climb in the second half of the season while Halladay only gets stronger.

MVP:

AL—Adrian Gonzalez (1B-Red Sox)

            Yes, Jose Bautista exists.  Yes, Adrian Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox who spend immense amounts of money to build a roster (3^rd in Majors just over $160 million).  But, the Red Sox find themselves in 1^st place in the toughest division in the Majors after starting 2-10 and have done so with Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, and J.D. Drew all having serious struggles at the plate, John Lackey allowing runs like a slow-pitch softball game, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester all landing on the DL.  The biggest reason:  Adrian Gonzalez.  His .354/.414/.591 (BA/OBP/SLG) line is simply phenomenal.  He is on pace for 230 hits, 52 doubles, 31 homers, and 139 RBIs.  These numbers have not been seen in the AL for a VERY long time.

NL—Prince Fielder (1B-Brewers)

            This is once again a scenario in which I named Fielder the MVP for the sake of not giving a “Co-MVP” award with Jose Reyes.  Prince is hitting .297 but his OBP of .415 is extremely impressive.  He is hitting the ball for power (22 homers and 21 doubles) and doing so when it counts (NL best 72 RBIs).  When he comes to the plate with runners in scoring position his average jumps to .322 and his OBP to .456.  Reyes’ numbers, overall and power, drop when there are men on base.  Once again the Brewers are tied for the top spot in the NL Central while the Mets find themselves in 3^rd place, 11 games back in the NL East.

 

Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, and “The Contract Year” Debate

The All-Star Game has yet to be played and the numbers are starting to fly around the heads of top name free agents. This years crop includes some of the biggest names in the National League: Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols. A look at the seasons that these players are having will not be an exception to the omnipresent debate that surfaces in the conversations of many, “How does an offseason that will include negotiations effect the on-field performance of these players?”

Jose Reyes, the speedy shortstop for the embattled Mets, may be the most intriguing swimmer in a potentially very full free agent pool. Reyes, with the baffling drop-off of Hanley Ramirez, is arguably the best shortstop on an ever-aging list of Major League shortstops (although Troy Tulowitzki may have something to say about that). That ever-aging list is making the premium for top-tier shortstops extremely high.

Before landing himself on the 15-Day DL with a hamstring injury, Reyes had played his way to the top of the NL MVP race. His .354/.398/.529 line up until the pre-All Star Game DL stint puts him .063/.058/.088 ahead of his career numbers. He has already surpassed his triples total from the past two seasons combined (15 compared to 12) and has equaled his 30 steals from last season (in 80 games compared to 133). He is on pace to score 120 runs, collect 228 hits, and steal 55 bases, all while drawing more walks than strikeouts. The season he is having so far convinced Jayson Stark, the ESPN baseball expert, to compare it to Ty Cobb’s 1911 season. He has 43 multi-hit games so far this season compared to 21 single-hit games, coupled with 16 no-hit games, he has more multi-hit games than others. But what kind of numbers will this season translate to in the off-season? And are such astronomical numbers the result of him reaching the end of his contract?

Part of what make Reyes’ free agent negotiations is where the juggernauts will fall. The Yankees locked themselves into 3 more seasons with “The Captain” for $51 million, but Jeter’s play both in the batter’s box and in the field, have left more than a little to be desired. The Yankees have a lineup that could get log jammed with guys needing to DH, and they have gotten a glimpse of Eduardo Nunez, who could serve as their SS of the future. You can never rule them out of the bidding, but as the number crawls north Cashman may turn his focus to the rotation which cannot survive long term on the arms of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. The Red Sox have a very viable SS in Jed Lowrie and a very good prospect in Jose Iglesias, and following the spending spree of this past off-season they may save their money for another year or two when pieces such as J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, John Lackey, and Josh Beckett may need to be replaced. The absence of these two teams from the negotiations could keep the number down for some teams to sneak in, but north of $17 million-a-year, or even a Crawford-esque 7-year $142 million, should not be shocking to anyone.

Two of the other big names that will probably find themselves in the pool: Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Prince Fielder is on pace to return to his 2009 form and hit 40 homers with 129 RBIs. His OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) is over the 1.000 mark and his strikeout numbers are down. This type of production is not too odd for Prince, and he is looking for a King’s sum. His fellow NL Central first baseman, Albert Pujols, however, is more likely to bring home the big loot. Albert, landing himself on the DL with a broken bone in his left arm is lagging behind his career average for offensive production. That being said, he is widely regarded as the best player in the Majors and already one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of the game. The big question will be his performance upon returning from the broken bone in his arm. If he is able to bring his production back up and show that it is now issue, the sky could be the limit in free agency.

These two players will, like Reyes, suffer from the absence of the Yankees and Red Sox, who have their first basemen of the future in Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez respectively. When Ryan Howard signed a contract renewal that averaged $25 million-a-year, Bobby Cox (the former Braves manager) said that put Pujols’ value at $50 million-a-year. While Pujols will seek a 10-year contract for $300 million, he will most likely not get that kind of money. Both of these players, both on previous and current production, have lined themselves up for huge sums, and Pujols receiving a record contract could be very likely. Prince will come out pretty also with a contract around the $20 million-a-year mark.

Looking at the numbers of all 3 players we see that Reyes is playing better, Fielder somewhere around his average, and Pujols is looking up at his average numbers, so there seems to be no correlation to “the contract year.” And lets face it, the previous numbers show that.