The Other Free Agents: Beltran and Ramirez

This season’s free agent class in baseball boasts some of the game’s biggest stars. The last two World Series, however, have been won in large part due to the contributions of players who do not fit the description of the “big star” category.

Outside of Tim Lincecum, the 2010 champion San Francisco Giants team was constructed entirely of players outside the top echelon of talent. The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals boasted Albert Pujols (one of the free agents that makes this years class so top heavy) and Chris Carpenter, two of the best at their respective positions. It was the contributions of two players who have never appeared in 100 games in a regular season, Allen Craig and David Freese, however, that were the key to a Series victory over a Texas Rangers team that boasts more of those “big star” names.

This offseason will be full of talk about where Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, and even Mark Buehrle will land. Jim Bowden, of ESPN, has listed 5 of these 6 (Darvish not included because he is coming from Japan) as the 5 free agents who will, not shockingly, make the most money in their new contracts. The players that Bowden has listed at 6 and 7, respectively, however, jumped out to me as players that carry with them “big star” names, but will have to play contributor roles and could have serious impacts in these roles. What also jumped out to me is that these players, according to Bowden’s estimations, will command nearly identical contract numbers. These two players are: Carlos Beltran and Aramis Ramirez.

So which of these two players is worth the 3-year $40-$45 million contract that they will receiver in the now bloated free agent market of baseball? Also which other available players might be able to be had at these positions that could serve as acceptable replacements?

Carlos Beltran, who was brought in by the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline to try and help the crew of misfits repeat as World Series champions, will turn 35 less than a month into the upcoming season. How did he do as a 34 year-old? For the first time in 3 seasons, Beltran appeared in more than 50% of the regular season games, appearing in a total of 142 between the Mets and Giants. For just the second time in the last 8 seasons, his batting average (BA) hit the .300 mark, batting .300 exactly. His .385 on-base percentage (OBP) and his .910 on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage were his second highest totals over the last 5 seasons. In short, Beltran looked rejuvenated after two injury-shortened seasons.

Pitfalls? Obviously. Bill James, the now famous baseball statistician, developed a series of equations that allows players throughout history to be compared on a purely statistical basis. So who can Carlos Beltran most closely be compared to? Fred Lynn.

How did Fred Lynn fare as a 34 year-old? Lynn’s 23 homeruns were 1 more than the 22 dingers that Beltran hit this past year. Lynn, as a 34 year-old, posted his second highest totals in BA, OBP, and OPS over his last 5 years. Fred Lynn’s next three seasons, the expected length of Beltran’s contract? His offensive-WAR rating over the next three seasons combined would be only .4 higher than his 3.4 rating as a 34 year-old. The closest he would get to the .287 he posted as a 34 year-old—.253. His .371 OBP—.328. And his .869 OPS—.807. There is hope, however.

Carlos Beltran’s most recent year had the highest similarity score with the 34 year-old Andre Dawson. In fact, Beltran’s years between the ages of 26 and 30 were most similar to those same years of Dawson. Dawson’s production following such a similar season as a 34 year-old? His WAR rating would be higher than his 2.0 rating as a 34 year-old each of the next three seasons. Dawson’s homerun totals were also higher as a 35, 36, and 37 year-old. His BA, OBP, and OPS were higher 2 of the next 3 seasons. So is Beltran destined for a Fred Lynn-esque decline, or an Andre Dawson-like resurgence? This is the question GMs across the league will have to ask themselves.

This brings us to Aramis Ramirez—the 33-year old third baseman for the Cubs. Ramirez, who will turn 34 before the halfway point of the season, had a strong season last year relative to his career, but extraordinarily mediocre season compared to his last 5. His .306 batting average, 93 RBIs, and 3.6 WAR rating were his third highest totals over his past five years. A couple of things, however, stand out about this year. His 149 games played are tied for his highest total over the past five seasons, and his OPS+ (an on-base plus slugging percentage that is adjusted for a given player’s home ballpark) of 136 was the second highest total of his career—behind the 138 he posted in 2004 as a 26-year old. So will his mediocre season trend to a resurgence or decline, or is it a sign of a production-plateau that he now calls home.

Turning to the similarity scores that we used in evaluating Carlos Beltran’s potential future value, we find that Ramirez’s career has, statistically, most closely mirrored the career of Vinny Castilla. As a 33-year old Vinny Castilla slugged 25 homers (1 fewer than Ramirez’s total this past season), but hit only .260, with a .308 OBP, and a .775 OPS. His next three seasons were a rollercoaster ride. As a 34-year old, his BA dropped to .232, his OBP to .268, his OPS to .616, and he hit only 12 homeruns. All of this was good for a WAR rating of -1.0. He would, however, post a combined 5.4 WAR rating over his next two seasons, including a 3.4 rating (the second highest total of his career) as a 36-year old. He would hit a combined 57 homeruns in those two seasons, his batting average would remain over .270, his OBP over .310, and he would post OPSs of .771 and .867.

While Vinny Castilla is an interesting and seemingly apt comparison to Aramis Ramirez, there is another player who has had either the highest or second highest similarity score to the age specific production of Ramirez since he was 28, that is more intriguing in my mind as a comparison—Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen would only play until he was 36, which is the same age Ramirez would be at the end of a 3-year contract.

As a 33-year old, Scott Rolen posted a 3.8 WAR rating after hitting .262, posting an OBP of .349, and having an OPS of .780. His 3.8 WAR rating was slightly higher than the 3.6 posted by Ramirez this past season, but also hugely misleading. Ramirez’s offensive WAR this past year was 4.5, and he had a negative defensive WAR. Rolen, however, had a 1.7 defensive WAR rating which means his offensive WAR rating was a mere 2.1 as a 33-year old. So why do I like this comparison? Because it is clear that Ramirez could be valuable to an AL team as a designated hitter and backup third baseman. The careers of both Castilla and Rolen, two hitters who are statistically similar to Ramirez, show that for as many as 3 more years, Ramirez could be extremely productive at the plate. The career of Ramirez, as he has had only 1 season in the past 10 of a positive defensive WAR rating, however, shows that he will most likely not be extremely valuable at the hot corner.

So which one of these two free agents will be more valuable to teams over the next 3 seasons? I think that the answer, although not by much, is Carlos Beltran. Ramirez has been a mercurial hitter, and has been a part of a dysfunctional clubhouse in Chocago for so many years now that he does not have much leadership to add as a veteran. Beltran is more valuable as a fielder and has a proven track record of success in the post-season.

These two players will obviously go to teams that wish to contend in the present. And both players could be valuable as designated hitters, a role that neither one has played extensively. The most intriguing replacement options for the teams that miss out on these big-name free agents come from Japan and Cuba. Players such as Yoennis Cespedes, Jorge Soler, Henry Urrutia, Norichika Aoki, and Hiroyuki Nakajima will be signed with less recognition than Beltran and Ramirez, but could have just has significant contributions for 3 years or even more. I think that they are both overpriced, but they will have no problem finding roster spots. There is one big difference, however, I think that Beltran will return to San Francisco and I think that there is not a chance that Ramirez returns to Chicago.

NFL Week 11 Handicapper

New York (A) at Denver (+6)

Is it just me, or should the Jets watch film and this game really closely. Triple option with Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Mark Sanchez, don’t let him throw another pass EVER. Improvement. Even better improvement, include Joe McKnight in the triple option and do away with Mark “I Am Single Handedly Holding Back This Sanchise” Sanchez completely. Uber-Improvement.
Pick: Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)

Isn’t it clear now why the Bucs brought in Albert Haynesworth? They figured that the only way to beat Aaron Rodgers was to poison him with a disgusting lack of work ethic that leads to a precipitous decline in skill that was at the heart of a promising, fledgling career, thus prompting your teammates and coaches to hate you. Here’s to hoping it works.
Pick: Packers.

Carolina at Detroit (-7)

Who else is waiting for another Cadillac ad that talks about wanting to rejuvenate Detroit with Matt Stafford driving? He then gets out of the car and as soon as he does he injures himself tripping over his defense that is lying down and then his car transforms into Calvin Johnson (a robot) who flies away.
Pick: Lions.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)

Thank goodness the fans in Cleveland clamored to back a “professional” football team back into their “great” city. Seriously, this game is going to be so bad the people of Cleveland are counting down the days until pitchers and catchers report.
Pick: Jaguars (and to win).

Oakland at Minnesota (+1)

Carson Palmer finally threw fewer than 3 interceptions as a Raider last week, leading them to a victory over the Chargers. Raiders fans are now clamoring for the return of Kyle Boller because they include interceptions into a quarterbacks completion percentage in the hopes that they can make them appear better than the crap that they really are.
Pick: Vikings (and to win).

Buffalo at Miami (-2)

The only thing that can confirm a complete fall into insignificance following a demolition at the hands of the Cowboys, is a loss to the Matt Moore-led Dolphins. See the Redskins and Chiefs from the previous two weeks. The Bills are well on their way to that place they know all too well.
Pick: Bills (and to win).

Dallas at Washington (+7.5)

John Beck or Rex Grossman? Rex Grossman or John Beck? That’s like choosing between cheering for the Cowboys and the Redskins. You hate both, and you know that they both stink anyways, so why bother even choosing when you could just watch better football by going to the local high school, which is ironically where Rex Grossman used to get stuffed into lockers.
Pick: Cowboys.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

The Bengals haven’t defeated a good team, and the Ravens haven’t beaten a bad team. So who wins this battle? No one because a ginger and a devolved idiot lead these two teams, and yet they are at the top of the AFC playoff list over the likes of people who have intelligence like Ryan Fitzpatrick. Score one for the morons.
Pick: Ravens.

Seattle at St. Louis (-2)

You know what’s shocking? The fact that these two teams are not vying for a playoff spot like they were last year atop the NFC West, does not make this game less interesting at all. It is still mind numbingly boring seeing as how the Seahawks team MVP goes to Steven Hauschka and the St. Louis team MVP is…wow, literally no one.
Pick: Seattle (and to win).

Arizona at San Francisco (-9.5)

The 49ers are officially for real. They have been for several weeks now, but their 8-1 record puts them two games clear in second place in the NFL. The Cardinals are officially a below average team. They have been for several weeks now, but their victory over the Eagles proved that.
Pick: 49ers.

Tennessee at Atlanta (-6)

Shouldn’t Matt Hasselbeck be in the MVP consideration seeing as how he has the Titans sitting at 5-4 with Chris Johnson looking as bad as his back up Javon Ringer, and receivers that wouldn’t be able to get open against the Patriots secondary. Even Peyton Manning couldn’t pull that off.
Pick: Titans.

San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)

Two teams moving in different directions; the Chargers, who started fast, look like they wouldn’t be able to beat Stanford, and the Bears look like they can’t be stopped. And who would have ever thought that the team with Jay Cutler would be the one moving in the right direction?
Pick: Chargers (and to win).

Philadelphia at New York (N) (-4)

Michael Vick has two cracked ribs, DeSean Jackson got benched “for missing a team meeting” (but everyone knows its for something else as well), and their 3-6 record puts them as close to the playoffs as the Cardinals, Seahawks, Jaguars, Browns, and Redskins. I don’t know what kind of dreams Vince Young has, but it may explain why his psyche shattered enough to not even allow him to be an NFL quarterback anymore. Come on Vince, anyone can do that, just ask John Skelton (who beat the lowly Eagles).
Pick: Giants.

Kansas City at New England (-15)

With Matt Cassell going down to injury, the New England Patriots 2.0 must turn to Tyler Palko to lead their anemic offense. Romeo Crennel believes that he can be like Tom Brady and come in to help this team make a late season run to and then through the playoffs. It was then discovered that Romeo Crennel was suffering from concussion symptoms that he suffered while fighting for the front of the buffet line with Charlie Weis.
Pick: Chiefs.

Dan Duquette’s Legacy: A Red Sox Fan’s Retrospective

“I am not going to go into the past.” This single quote by Mark McGwire has become indicative of the now fleeting steroid era. McGwire’s contention, however, has not prevented writers and fans alike, from attaching steroid use or even existence in the steroid era, as black spots to the legacies of numerous players.

With the announcement that the Baltimore Orioles have hired Dan Duquette, the former Boston Red Sox general manager, as their general manager, I wonder if it is time to reevaluate the legacy of Duquette in Boston.

One of moves that looms largest in the minds of Boston fans, attached to the legacy of Dan Duquette, was unquestionably the decision to let a Boston icon and legend, Roger Clemens, leave the team via free agency. Now many of you see where I am going with my train of thought here, but the question remains, what role did steroids indirectly play in the legacy of Dan Duquette?

Roger Clemens was 34 at the beginning of his first season outside of Boston. At this age, a swift precipitous decline is not out of the minds of coaches and GMs. Clemens, however, was not destined for such a drop in production, instead he would accumulate a combined 53.6 wins above replacement player (WAR) rating and 162 total wins over 11 more seasons in the MLB, and earn 4 more Cy Young awards (to go along with the 3 he won in Boston). In short, Clemens could have been an ace at the top of the Red Sox rotation, and helped the team to many more victories (especially since he did most of his pitching damage in Toronto and as a Yankee, division rivals of the Red Sox, after leaving) for many more years, had Duquette resigned him following the ’96 season.

As news outlets across America have made you acutely aware, however, Roger Clemens has found himself mired in one of the bitterest battles of alleged steroid use. Would Duquette’s decision look as bad as it does if Clemens’ arm had tired or slowed down after the more than 498 innings that he threw in two seasons as a Blue Jay? Steroids, if he did use them (and let’s face it, I am not the only one who thinks he is as guilty as it gets), it would not be a stretch to say, may have had a substantially positive effect on his performance late in his career.

So what about Duquette’s other moves as GM in Boston? It was Duquette who brought in Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in one of the great heists in recent baseball trades; for those of you who don’t know, the Seattle Mariners traded Lowe and Varitek to Boston for the likes of Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb would pitch a grand total of 98 innings as a Mariner, have an ERA of 4.97, a 2-9 record, and 13 saves in 84 appearances. It was Duquette who traded Carl Pavano (one of his draft picks) and Tony Armas to the Expos for Pedro Martinez, the same Martinez who would amass 117 wins, post a 2.52 ERA, earn a 47.6 WAR rating, and win two Cy Young awards in seven seasons in Boston. Ironically this was the second time that Duquette had, for all intents and purposes, stolen Martinez as a GM. He had brought him to Montreal from the Dodgers for Delino DeShields.

His free agent signings: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Tim Wakefield, Hanley Ramirez, Jamie Moyer, and Anibal Sanchez. Ramirez, Damon, and Wakefield are some of the most successful Red Sox players certainly of the era, but were also a part of the 2004 team that won the World Series. There is no doubt that Duquette made a mistake in trading Moyer away for Darren Bragg, but he recognized the pitcher’s talent. Ramirez and Sanchez never played for the Red Sox, but were the centerpieces of an Epstein trade with the Marlins that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.

Some of the best decisions are based in inaction. Duquette decided not to resign, then alienated, Mo Vaughn. Instead the slugger signed a 6-year $80 million contract, at the time the largest in baseball, with the Anaheim Angels. He would only play 4 of those 6 seasons in the Majors, and only 2 of them with the Angels. In his first year with the Angels, his average would drop from .337 to .281, his on-base percentage (OBP) from .402 to .358, and his slugging percentage (SLG) from .591 to .508.

All of this being said, Duquette did have some obvious shortcomings. While he was the one who drafted Nomar Garciaparra, Carl Pavano, Kevin Youkilis, Adam Everett, David Eckstein, Justin Duchscherer, and Shea Hillenbrand, those were the cream of an eight-year crop. He passed on players such as Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Chase Utley. Most of his top picks busted. He could have done better in the drafts, but there also seemed to be some pressure in Boston that directed some of his picks.

Dan Duquette, like all GMs, is not without his share of mistakes in retrospect. With the record that he does have, however, I am shocked that it took a team 9 years to give him another chance at building a team. Baltimore may have been the perfect fit for him. He does not spend money on many foolish endeavors. Drafting knowledge and tools are greatly improved, where he did have some hits. It is clear that he is skilled at evaluating talent, and being in an environment a little less stressful than pre-2004 Boston will mean that Duquette may be able to improve upon the people skills that alienated so many in the Boston clubhouse and media.

Duquette will have to take some more risks, something he did not do too much of in Boston, because there is no other way for a team that is stuck in a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and even the Tampa Bay Rays now, to compete. One things for sure though, the Orioles have a man at the helm who has a legacy, and unlike so many players, has a chance to build a new one in Camden Yards.

NFL Week 10 Handicapper

Oakland at San Diego (-7)

Philip Rivers is torn because he has seen two quarterbacks leave San Diego and go on to teams that have won the Super Bowl: Drew Brees and Eli Manning (although Manning never played a down as a Charger). Then he realized that if he asked to get out he may end up quarterbacking a team like the Raiders who have about as a good chance to win the Super Bowl as JaMarcus Russell does of starting another game anywhere as a QB.
Pick: Chargers.

New Orleans at Atlanta (Pick)

Julio Jones, the wide receiver from Alabama who the Falcons got a high cost, grabbed his first two touchdowns of the season last week. When asked about the receiver finally finding the endzone, his college coach Nick Saban said, “I am proud of him, he is taking to NFL coaching because he clearly didn’t learn scoring touchdowns while he was playing here at Alabama. We just like to try and kick field goals because it is called ‘football’ not ‘catchball.’”
Pick: Saints.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3)

Andy Dalton, the rookie signal caller for the Bengals, has quietly led his team to a 6-2 record. The Bengals have started to shop Andy Dalton to some of the worst teams in the NFL because they have such a large scouting department for high draft picks that they don’t want to mess with their business model because they feel that it has served them well.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis at Cleveland (-2.5)

Remember when Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy were facing off in the National Championship game just a few years ago? I feel better now, at least my life is uphill after leaving college, these two have been doomed to playing for NFL teams that look worse than Madden fans for choosing to put Peyton Hillis on the cover this year.
Pick: Browns

Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)

Jerry Jones compared DeMarco Murray to Eric Dickerson. Really? Now the guy running the team looks as dumb as the guy running the offense from the pocket. Ryan Fitzpatrick has more brains in his beard than those two combined.
Pick: Bills

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3)

Sources have confirmed that Peyton Manning’s neck injury is the direct result of carrying an entire NFL team on his back. Curtis Painter’s neck has also been confirmed to be in completely perfect health despite carrying that awful head of hair.
Pick: Jaguars

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

The Chiefs were responsible for the Miami Dolphins finally finding the win column. Tim Tebow was responsible for human kind finding salvation, the Chiefs were not included on this list of people who were led to salvation because they let the Dolphins find the win column.
Pick: Broncos (and to win)

Washington at Miami (-4)

The Redskins’ coaching staff found some sense of vindication when not even Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots could turn Albert Haynesworth’s attitude and play around. The Dolphins’ coaching staff found themselves atop the list for end of the year awards because they won a game with Matt Moore as the quarterback and a defense that would make Donovan McNabb look like an All-Pro.
Pick: Redskins (and to win)

Arizona at Philadelphia (-13.5)

Andy Reid has largely escaped criticism for his team’s horrendous start despite the fact that his defense, led by a former offensive line coach, looks so bad that the Cardinals are confident in starting John Skelton. It would appear that criticism is actually the only thing that Andy Reid has been able to outrun in his entire life.
Pick: Cardinals

Houston at Tampa Bay (+3)

The Buccaneers claimed Albert Haynesworth off of waivers from the New England Patriots. In other news, authorities have warned Tampa residents to keep their children inside at night for fear that Haynesworth might eat them.
Pick: Bucs (and to win)

Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)

What are the chances Cam Newton avoids the path of Vince Young and mentally collapses and finds himself in NFL obscurity? About as good as Chris Johnson getting to the 2,500 yard-mark that he thought he could reach.
Pick: Panthers

Baltimore at Seattle (+6.5)

When asked if he had confidence that Joe Flacco was going to lead them to victory last week, Ray Lewis said, “Absoutely. I told him that if he didn’t I was going to kill him.”
Pick: Ravens

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

The Bears pulled off a victory that surprised the football world when they defeated the Eagles. The Lions pulled off a victory that surprised the football world also, its called every single win that they get.
Pick: Lions (and to win)

New York (N) at San Francisco (-3.5)

When asked how he was going to celebrate their victory over the Patriots, Eli Manning said, “I will be celebrating with the ‘Sghetti man in San Francisco.” Reporters took this to mean that Eli Manning was going to have Chef Boyardee for dinner once he got to San Francisco; this translation came from a reporter’s 5 year-old son.
Pick: 49ers

New England at New York (A) (-1.5)

When asked what it’s like on “Revis Island,” Chad Ochocinco responded, “It makes you feel like Albert Haynesworth—completely useless.” And in other news, Antonio Cromartie asked Darrell Revis if he could drop some of his kids off on Revis Island so that he could stop paying child support.
Pick: Patriots (and to win)

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5)

How bad is Christian Ponder? He won’t even be able to complete a pass to the Packers’ defense like Philip Rivers did. This rivalry has gotten as out of control as Bernard Berrian had gotten, too bad the Vikings can’t just cut the Packers from their schedule.
Pick: Vikings

NFL Week 9 Handicapper

So after travel and then this freak October storm that demolished the Northeast and has forced me (and so many others in CT) to bounce around in search of internet that is working in the present, I was able to get my picks done. Hopefully the internet lasts long enough for me to publish this post.

New York (A) at Buffalo (-2.5)

Last week, the resurgent Bills were responsible for handing Mike Shanahan his first shutout defeat ever as a head coach. Hopefully those same resurgent Bills will be able to hand Jet-hating America the Jets first defeat in which Rex Ryan shuts up and doesn’t make a mockery of being a head coach in the NFL.
Pick: Jets (and to win)

Seattle at Dallas (-11)

Another strike against “America’s Team,” last week they allowed a team that boasted themselves to be the best coming into the season but looked as good as Andre Smith did running the 40-yard dash demolish them. I am serious we should start the “Occupy Cowboys Stadium” movement and officially have the “America’s Team” title removed from this abomination of a football team. Alright, maybe that’s not necessary, but seriously has there ever been a team that has deserved the title less?
Pick: Seahawks (and to clarify any confusion, I am picking the Texans to win, but not cover the spread).

Atlanta at Indianapolis (+6.5)

The Colts’ playoff hopes this year without Peyton Manning may be the only thing that lasted for a shorter time than Kris Humphries’ marriage to whichever Kardashian it was he married. With Robert Mathis stating that he doesn’t want to “Suck for Luck,” our suspicions have been confirmed that Robert Mathis just sucks. But don’t feel bad Mathis, clearly the rest of your teammates also suck regardless of the presence of a goofy looking college quarterback.
Pick: Falcons.

Miami at Kansas City (-5)

The Chiefs could win their 5th game in a row! Too bad no one will give them credit for being good because they have beaten the Colts, the McNabb led Vikings, and now the winless Dolphins would mark their 5th victory in a row. The Chiefs would get more credit for having a 5 game winning streak in the Canadian Football League. And they just run into goal posts.
Pick: Chiefs.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-8.5)

The Saints followed up a rout of the Colts with a loss at the hands of the Rams…quarterbacked by AJ Feely. That’s like beating up a little kid, only to have his slightly older sister come and pound on you.
Pick: Saints.

San Francisco at Washington (+5)

How bad has John Beck played? People in Washington are clamoring for Rex Grossman to come back as their quarterback. Pretty soon they will be asking Donovan McNabb to return. Alright, that is ridiculous. But the Washington Nationals have contacted McNabb about being the guy who throws groundballs to their infielders during spring training because he is really good at it.
Pick: 49ers.

Cleveland at Houston (-10.5)

The Texans have been able to survive without their star wide receiver Andre Johnson for the last few weeks. The Browns have been able to survive without a star for the past few decades…well actually they haven’t, there was that whole thing where they moved to Baltimore and then magically reappeared.
Pick: Browns.

New York (N) at New England (-9.5)

Eli Manning did his best Plaxico Burress impression and shot himself in the foot this off-season when he claimed to be at a similar quarterbacking level to Tom Brady. How bad is Eli? His brother hasn’t taken a snap all year long and he is still getting more press for being a great quarterback than Eli is.
Pick: Patriots.

Bonus Over/Under: How many times will David Tyree, from whatever couch he finds himself sitting in, be able to relive the high point (and only highlight) of his life this week (a.k.a. how many times will we see the “Helmet Grab” in Sunday coverage)? Over/Under: 3. Over

Double Bonus Over/Under: How many boobs will Julian Edelman grope during the game? Over/Under: 3. Over

Denver at Oakland (-7)

Alright which quarterback experiment will blow up worse this weekend: Carson Palmer or Tim Tebow? Hue Jackson called the Carson Palmer trade one of the best trades in NFL history, right up there with the Herschel Walker trade that doomed the Vikings organization for years.
Pick: Broncos (and to win).

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-2.5)

Has there been a bigger who cares game between two teams that are actually in contention…since the first 5 games of the World Series that is? Who wants to watch Carrot Top vs. some octogenarian? Tennessee fan would rather watch news reports about the unlikely event that their Grizzlies will be playing this season.
Pick: Bengals (and to win).

St. Louis at Arizona (-2.5)

The Cardinals may find themselves in a foot race to Los Angeles with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings. Could you imagine the St. Louis Rams playing the Los Angeles Cardinals? It would be mass confusion for old people trying to figure out what the hell happened to the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams, they won’t even know what sport they are watching. Once the game starts, they won’t have an better idea since what these teams do each week can hardly be called playing football.
Pick: Cardinals.

Green Bay at San Diego (+5.5)

Aaron Rodgers will make a return to California, where he played college football at Cal. Packers fans are worried that he will never want to return to Wisconsin when he realizes what a dump Green Bay is compared to California. It’s like trying to convince Chargers fans that Ryan Matthews is just as good as LaDainian Tomlinson was and that we can still win with this offense led by a quarterback who looks more and more like Tony Romo every week.
Pick: Packers.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Remember in Week 1 when the Ravens beat the Steelers 35-7 and everyone was wondering if it was the beginning of the end for this Steelers team? Well 8 weeks later, some victories for the Steelers, and Joe Flacco apparently watching too many Kyle Boller videos now have the Steelers favored to beat the Ravens.
Pick: Steelers.

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7.5)

Some analysts have said that Terrell Owens would make a great fit in Chicago because Jay Cutler wouldn’t take any of his antics seriously or let him highjack his huddle. Anyone else want the Bears to sign Owens just to see those two get into a fight and then have Brian Urlacher come in and beat up both of these idiots? I know I do, more than I even want to see LeSean McCoy give Andy Reid another titty-twister.
Pick: Eagles.