Week 7 Handicapper

So after an unbearably long hiatus from making my picks and inundating you with the not funny jokes that I blame entirely on the genes that my father has handed to me, I return in this pivotal week 7. I have been gone so long with my cousin’s wedding and my Italian roommate being in the USA that I am looking to get kicked out in the second quarter.

Seattle at Cleveland (-3)

The best thing that Cleveland sports has had in the last year is the fact that Peyton Hillis was featured on the cover of Madden 2012. How did that work out? The Madden Curse strikes again. Or was it the Cleveland Curse? The new best thing to happen in Cleveland sports, the Cavaliers season won’t start on time so residents won’t have watch that horror show.
Pick: Browns

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5)

Jim Schwartz has never been so fired up as he was after the botched handshake with Jim Harbaugh. Schwartz fired up still looks like a comatose blind guy. Funny, up until this year, that is what the entire Detroit Lions depth chart looked like on the field.
Pick: Lions

Houston at Tennessee (-3)

The Houston Texans have two running backs that have out gained Chris Johnson on the ground by 55 and 112 yards. It’s alright though, the Titans are paying him more than 3 times as much money as those two running backs combined. Good thing they are interested in Terrell Owens. Then they could have two overpaid players who could ruin the clubhouse. Advice for the Titans: The Bengals’ business model did not work out.
Pick: Titans

Denver at Miami (-1)

The man under center for the Dolphins was so bad the Panthers turned him on. The Romans turned on the man under center for the Broncos because he was also God. For once, the Miami Dolphins might have a game that is not blacked out because loads of people have to make the pilgrimage to Miami to save their souls.
Pick: Broncos (and to win)

San Diego at New York (A) (+2)

Norv Turner and Rex Ryan are two stereotypical kids in a grade school class. Turner is the weird, whiny kid that no one wants to be friends with; Ryan, the fat kid who bullies because he actually is not good at anything, but fakes it really well. Anyone else want to see Jim Harbaugh, the well groomed, jock who is great at everything give these guys more than a firm handshake? Shut up Rex, you haven’t won anything or made good on any of your predictions.
Pick: Jets (and to win)

Chicago at Tampa Bay (+1)

People of London, you have before you one of the most boring games to watch. Why is it that we always give them the worst games? I guess its pay back for them sending us their washed up soccer stars. Suckers, now you get Jay Cutler. America wins again.
Pick: Bucs

Washington at Carolina (-2.5)

Before last week the Redskins were riding high and nothing could touch this team headed for the top of the division. Four interceptions later, John Beck is now the starter and the Eagles are once again winners and darlings in the eyes of experts everywhere. Damn, that means Cam Newton needed on more interception last week to be the screw up everyone was waiting for. The Public’s opinion changes faster than Dan Snyder spends money.
Pick: Redskins (and to win)

Kansas City at Oakland (-6)

Carson Palmer is once again in the role of starting quarterback. Pretty soon his counterpart in Kansas City, Matt Cassel, will be back to his role as a backup to Tyler Palko. Its like college all over again for USC quarterbacks. Next thing you know Matt Leinart will be a celebrity and a top quarterback, hanging with other top-level celebrities. Alright, that last one was pretty ridiculous, but the first two are true. Weird.
Pick: Chiefs

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+4)

How many times have you heard Kevin Kolb’s name called this year? About as many times as you have heard from the women in Roethlisberger’s trials, only there isn’t any hush money when it comes to Kevin Kolb. Maybe he should start demanding some.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis at Dallas (-13)

Tony Romo or Tony Oh-No. Who plays this week? In the end it doesn’t matter because Tony Oh-Who-Cares-You-Play-For-The-Cowboys-And-Act-Like-A-Jerk-So-No-One-Will-Ever-Like-You-And-You-And-The-Team-Around-You-Aren’t-Good-Enough-To-Win-A-Super-Bowl-But-People-Talk-Like-You-Are will be playing so America will love to hate the Cowboys. Who needs a “Big Three” to hate when you can just hate Tony Romo times three.
Pick: Rams

Green Bay at Minnesota (+9)

So ends the Donovan McNabb experiment in Minnesota. Really? You mean a fat, out-of-shape, inaccurate quarterback who made a living on extending the play didn’t work out for a team with a less than spectacular receiving corps. Who saw that coming? Our old friend, the tacky, television theologian Christian Ponder did. Now he will fail which everyone saw coming.
Pick: Vikings

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14)

Curtis Painter is the Pete Myers of football. Who is Pete Myers you ask? He became the starting shooting guard for the Chicago Bulls when Michael Jordan decided to retire for a baseball career. The point is, that the Colts are terrible and it is all this guy’s fault.
Pick: Colts

Baltimore at Jacksonville (+8)

The Jaguars could be the least interesting team in the NFL. Seriously, even the Ravens don’t have any desire to murder any of the guys on the team because there would be no reason too. They should be the team to sign Terrell Owens, because there is no clubhouse character to destroy.
Pick: Ravens

Rodgers vs. Brady Race to a Record: Clearly Not a Foot Race

50 touchdown passes in a single season. This is the record number that Tom Brady put up during the 2007 season. Record numbers, however, seem to have little to no meaning thus far in the NFL season. An NFL season that started despite the numerous feelings that it might not happen because of a lockout has already found its place in unquestioned history. The comebacks, the rookie records (see Cam Newton), the surprise teams (see Redskins, Lions, Bills), the disappointing teams (see Eagles, Falcons), and Calvin Johnson (a.k.a. Megatron) have all placed the first four weeks of this season on a pedestal of football achievement. With this in mind, what are some of the records that could actually fall at the end of the season and not just in the first quarter of the season?

My friend is a huge Packers fan (I know that is somewhat oxymoronic, but its like me having friends who are Yankees fans (which he is too), they are inescapable) and, not unexpectedly, is huge on Aaron Rodgers. For those of you who have not been following the first four weeks of the NFL, the defending Super Bowl MVP, Rodgers, is second in the league with 12 touchdown passes and fourth with 1,325 yards. And for you mathematician sports fans you will notice that through 4 games, Rodgers is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards (5,084), but so are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo.

That record could easily fall to any of the six guys on the list (although some more likely than others) and truth be told, it is a record that is bound to fall some point soon. Fifteen of the next nineteen seasons of the most passing yards have happened since Marino’s record year in 1984. A record that is more intriguing is Tom Brady’s single season record of 50 touchdown passes. Quick, once again, mathematician sports fans, is Aaron Rodgers on pace? No, not quite. He is on pace to throw for 48 touchdowns, but if you put the pieces together, there is someone on pace to break that record.

The leader in the NFL right now has thrown 13 touchdown passes, on pace for 52, and that QB is—Tom Brady. But what are the chances that the half-century mark falls to either of these hurlers?

There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers has a plethora of offensive weapons that will help his pursuit of this record. A receiving corps that boasts Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson (recently the benefactor of a contract extension), James Jones and emerging rookie Randall Cobb, not to mention a healthy Jermichael Finley at tight end, give Rodgers enough threats that redzone visits usually turn out well.

The Packers are not a one-dimensional offense, however. Ryan Grant and James Starks form a one-two punch at running back that give the Packers another dimension, and another dimension may mean less chances for Rodgers. This may be the least of Rodgers fans’ worries, however, as he pursues this record. What are some of the big worries?

Lambeau Field, the frozen tundra that the Packers call home, is not known to be historically kind to quarterbacks at the end of seasons. Three of the five regular season games that the Packers will play in December and January this year will be in Green Bay and one of the others will be played outside against the Giants in New Jersey. Rodgers has never thrown more than 8 touchdowns in December and January regular season games combined, in a single season (Brady had 11 in December and January in 2007). In these games, the roles of Ryan Grant and James Starks will most likely become magnified.

The last thing that may actually count against Rodgers in his pursuit is the Packers’ record. The Packers, right now, sit at 4-0. They are one only two teams in the NFL that remains unbeaten. The Packers are also no strangers to injury. While they made a remarkable run to a Super Bowl victory with a long list of injuries last season, they understand that an injury to Aaron Rodgers would be crippling (no offense Matt Flynn, I think you are a very good backup quarterback). Depending on where their record places them in the NFC Playoff picture late in the season, Rodgers may find himself on the bench as the Packers try to protect him for a title defense.

What about Tom Brady? Brady is in a similar situation. He has a good set of weapons (Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez), he has a good running game, 3 of his 5 games in Decemeber and January are in frozen Foxboro, and if he were to get injured the Patriots would be below mediocre (they are 3-1 right now).

I chose not to consider the rankings of the defenses of the teams that remain for the two quarterbacks in the final 12 games of the season because after four weeks as wild as this, rankings, I believe, do not have enough merit. Injuries happen that change defenses, and anomalies happen in the first four weeks that artificially influence a team’s total numbers. With all of the strikes against Rodgers, I do not see him breaking the half-century mark. I think a season of 35-40 touchdown passes is much more conceivable, and also very impressive. As for Brady, his defense is so paltry that he may have to continue at the current pace to keep his team where he wants them. But I see him falling short too, probably between 40-45 touchdowns.

But a Rodgers vs. Brady Super Bowl would be pretty exciting. Any takers?