Sabathia is Tough, But Not Tough Enough

Last night may have been C.C. Sabathia’s most important start of the year.  He threw 128 pitches, the second most in his career, scattered 10 hits, resulting in only 2 runs over 6 innings and ultimately a win against bitter division rival and leader the Boston Red Sox.  While it may have been enough for a win in the game, it was not nearly enough for another win that Sabathia has been chasing.

The Cy Young award, given to the best pitcher in each league, would appear to be a race between Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and maybe some other minor contenders.  Sabathia’s performance last night may have been good enough for a victory against the Red Sox, but he will be thankful that he does not have a Cy Young related incentive in his contract because it was not good enough to win that award.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.  Against the three teams that find themselves atop the three divisions in the American League (Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox) Sabathia’s numbers have been less than stellar.  His ERA for the season is 2.99.  His ERA in his starts against those three teams so far this season—5.54.  He has posted an 18-7 record this year, but is only 3-5 against those three teams.

Justin Verlander’s numbers tell a different story.  His ERA for the season is 2.38.  Due to the fact that his team is in first place in the Central division, I calculated his results again the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees.  The Yankees, it appears, will make the playoffs even if they finish second in the division, they boast the third best record in the Majors, and have scored the most runs in the Majors so far this year.  So what is Verlander’s ERA against those three teams?  2.70—close to his season average.  His 20-5 record is aided by a 1-1 record in his starts against the three teams in question.

While neither has been overly impressive against the other best teams in the American League so far this year, Verlander has pitched close to his stellar averages.  Sabathia has taken huge steps backward against the toughest competition.  This race, in my mind, is over and Justin Verlander is the pinnacle of pitching performance in the American League.

Years Later: Could Jeff Weaver Still be Hurting the Yankees?

5-years and $85 million dollars.  Those are the principal numbers for the contract extension that Jered Weaver signed this past week with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  With an earned run average (ERA) that has settled at 2.28, tops in the American League, reports have insisted that by signing this contract he scorned $40-$50 million more.

On the surface this story is about Weaver taking less money to remain close to home and play for an organization that he has come to love and respect.  It is about him joining the likes of players such as Joe Mauer, taking less money (although still huge sums) and not taking their services to the masses asking for new, record-breaking contracts.

Deeper, however, there is the hint of a trend starting to show itself.  All that extra money that Weaver may have sacrificed in signing the contract extension with the Angels would most likely have come from one of the two biggest spenders in the Majors:  The Yankees and The Red Sox.  Starting pitching, especially outstanding starting pitching, is hard to come by, and even harder because you need to find 5 adequate starting pitchers for your team, and that is if they stay healthy.  Weaver is a new face in a growing trend of pitchers choosing not to bear the burden of New York pressure or Boston tradition.

Over the past few seasons, some big name pitchers have been mentioned in connection with the Yankees in particular, pitchers such as:  Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, and even a return for former Yankee Ted Lilly.  How many of these pitchers are donning Yankees uniforms?  Zero.  And for the foreseeable future, Jered Weaver will join that list of premier pitchers who will not find a home in the Bronx or Boston.

There have been several big name free agent pitchers that have found their way to New York, however.  One off-season in particular saw the arrival of both C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to the bright lights and pinstripes of New York.  One of these pitchers has continued his pace as a perennial Cy Young candidate, while the other has found his way onto a much more dubious list—the list of pitchers to falter on one of baseball’s biggest stages.  This list has swelled and includes familiar names:  Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Jon Lieber, and the most interesting of them all Jeff Weaver.

Jeff Weaver, the older brother of Jered Weaver, would find his way via trade to the bright lights of New York from the doldrums of Detroit.  Jeff came up to the Majors in 1999 with the Tigers and that season he would post a 5.55 ERA in 29 starts, good for a 0.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement player) rating.  His next two seasons in Detroit would find him start at least 30 games, post an ERA under 4.35, and earn a WAR rating over 3.  He began the 2002 season in Detroit and had a 3.18 ERA in his first 17 starts and a WAR rating of 2.7.  He would then get traded to New York and have a 4.04 ERA with them, good for a WAR of 1.4.  The following season would be his only full season with the Yankees.  He posted a 5.99 ERA, had a career high WHIP (Walk and Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.619, and a WAR rating of -0.3.  He would pitch the next season for the Dodgers and have an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.300, and a WAR of 1.9.  This story is indicative of many of the pitchers who find their way New York.

While there are success stories such as C.C. Sabathia, they seem to be coming fewer and further between.  A former teammate of Sabathia’s, Cliff Lee, made one of the biggest splashes in the most recent off-season by turning away millions more dollars in New York to go back and pitch in Philadelphia.  Jered Weaver preemptively scorned those millions with his contract extension.  Are pitchers wary to go to the big stages in New York and Boston?  Are they afraid of ruining longevity by trashing their psyche under the pressure?  Might it actually make them more money in the long term to not pitch in New York and take more contracts with other teams?  These are interesting ideas, and ones that should be watched more closely in coming years.  The advice of an older brother may mean more than millions of dollars, just ask the Weavers.

The Golf World Mourns, Can an Old Face Save the Future?

With yet another season of golf majors gone by, another season that saw 4 different winners (and none the same as any of the nine previous major winners), I think it is time to reflect on the most recent champion and what his win means for the game of golf and the PGA Tour.

To the untrained eye, or for the person who flicked their television on way too late, the finish to the PGA Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club may have seemed good, even thrilling.  It was, however, not that at all.  Sure a three-hole playoff is exciting, but Keegan Bradley’s win was yet another page in the recent dark history of major golf championships.  I don’t dislike Keegan Bradley, I am happy for the youngster that he was able to shake off a collapse that had occurred only a week prior and win the PGA Championship, but I merely question if his win was good for the game of golf or not.

The clear answer to this question is that his win is NOT good for the game, but it is not just his victory, it is his victory in combination with the previous 12 victors of major championships.  I had previously written a blog about the seemingly bleak future for American golf, but this instead is about the future of golf—period.

Why you ask is Bradley’s win so bad for the game?  Well, there are a couple of reasons.

The first is simply something that is found in his bag.  While some know, but others may not, golf purists across the globe cringed or rolled over in their graves when Keegan Bradley raised his belly putter in triumph on the 18^th green.  The 93^rd PGA Championship marked the first time that a major championship was captured using either a belly or long putter.  The golf world mourns because this is yet another display of the smash-and-grab style of play that has become indicative of so many young players on the Tour.  The true touch of a champion can now be imitated by jabbing one’s putter into their stomach or holding it at their chest, as opposed to the necessary skill of their hands.

The second is the manner in which Keegan Bradley won the tournament.  The golf world was excited when Charl Schwartzel became the first man to win a major by making birdies on the final four holes at Augusta in the year’s first major.  In the 93^rd PGA Championship, the golf world had to endure Keegan Bradley triple bogeying the 15^th hole and Jason Dufner limping home hauling a bag full of bogeys.  There was no one charging after golf balls with dramatic fist pumps, instead their were people watching golf balls with agony trying their best to give the championship to the other.  The two putt from 18 feet for Keegan Bradley’s victory seemed like nothing but defeat for the golf world.  The Tour thirsts for the days of Tiger Woods electrifying fans with chips that sit on the edge of the cup before dropping, or following putts in the growing darkness as they drop into the center of the cup.

Finally, and most obviously, the golf world needs someone to take charge and separate himself from the pack.  While I believe Rory McIlroy will become an increasingly great golfer, the fact remains that he has blown the lead in more majors than he has won.  Dustin Johnson chokes so often that Greg Norman feels bad for him.  Darren Clarke’s victory at the 2011 Open Championship was his first top 10 finish in a major in 10 years, and he would then miss the cut at the PGA Championship just weeks later.  None of the previous 13 major champions have the charisma that captured the attention of the golf world as Tiger Woods, Seve Ballesteros, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, and so many other major champions did.

This is not intended to take away from the victory that Keegan Bradley had at the Atlanta Athletic Club in the 93^rd PGA Championship.  It is also not intended to paint a bleak picture of the future of golf.  Instead, it is intended to point to the depth of bleakness that faces the current state of golf.  We need someone, and I will mention the name of golfer who, while they are notoriously not a major winner, initially captured the world with energy and charisma and if they could find the top of the leader board may be good for the game—Sergio Garcia.  Do you have any more jumps from behind trees left in your Sergio?  I know it is a long shot, but think about it?

The Unexpected Source of Pressure on Cam Newton

Arguably, Cam Newton, the first overall pick in the most recent NFL Draft, does not have tough competition for the starting quarterback job in Carolina, where he ended up.  According to the Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which was recently released by ESPN as a new, more comprehensive measure for quarterbacks in the NFL, Jimmy Clausen was one of two QBs to receive a rating below 35.  The rating is based on a 0-100 scale; the higher the number, the better the quarterback’s performance.  According to this new rating system, Brett Favre’s 2010 performance earned him a paltry 25.8 rating.  How bad was Jimmy Clausen?  How about an intensely pathetic, Chris Weinke-esque (sorry to bring up more painful memories Panthers fans, if you exist) 11.7 rating.

Following such an introduction, you might think that this blog is going to be used to bash Clausen, or boost Newton.  In fact it is going to be used to do neither.  I will, at the onset, admit that I do NOT have a seat on the Cam Newton bandwagon.  I did not really have to make this disclaimer, but I thought I should do it for the sake of full disclosure.  Instead, this blog is about the difficulty that Cam Newton will have reaching the bar that was clearly not set by his teammate Clausen, but instead by the three other men playing quarterback in his division (and two of them are not much older than Cam).

Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Josh Freeman are the three starting quarterbacks for the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (the other teams in the NFC South) respectively.  Based on the new QBR rating system released by ESPN, the average rating for these three quarterbacks in the 2010 season was 66; and they all ranked in the top 8 quarterbacks in the league.  The closest division in terms of the average rating of the starting quarterbacks was the AFC South (Peyton Manning, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and Kerry Collins) with a 60.15.

Drew Brees, whose 65.9 rating in 2010 placed him 6^th in the league, had a 77.2 rating in 2009 that was second.  It was this season, culminating in a Super Bowl victory and the game’s MVP award, that solidified Brees as a household name.  He had been considered among the top echelon of quarterbacks in the league and has garnered the attention that goes along with his level of play.  There is no doubt that when the Panthers face the Saints this season, Panthers fans will see one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he will be on the wrong side of the ball.

The two more intriguing players are Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman.  Matt Ryan, the 25-year old slinger for the Atlanta Falcons, has quickly made a name for himself.  His 68.6 QBR rating in 2010 was 3^rd, behind only Brady and the elder Manning, and he led his Falcons team to the playoffs for the second time in his three years as the starting quarterback.  He has increased his touchdowns by six in each of his first 3 seasons, reaching a high of 28 in the 2010 season.  His interception numbers bottomed out last year at 9, and have never been higher than 14.  There is no doubt that “Matty Ice” is here to stay in the top realms of the quarterback world.

The other quarterback who will put the pressure on Newton in his two meetings with the Panthers is Josh Freeman.  Freeman, who at 21, was a year younger than Newton is when he entered the NFL.  Last season Freeman threw for almost 3,500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions.  His numbers, as well as the numbers of Ryan, compare favorably with the first years of the careers of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and the aforementioned Drew Brees.  I will not bore you with numerous statistics that show the superior ability of these quarterbacks; but instead I will remind you that these young quarterbacks have, most importantly, found a way to lead their teams to victory.  Ryan, Brees, and Freeman combined to lead their teams to a combined 34 wins (13, 11, and 10 respectively) last season.

When, as I believe he will early in the season, Cam Newton steps under center as the Carolina Panthers starting quarterback, he will have some wonderful models who have left huge shoes to fill.  As I previously stated I am not on the Newton bandwagon, and I do not believe that he will be able to match the stellar performances of these quarterbacks, even though there are two of them who are similar in age to the heralded Heisman winner.  So be weary of the pressure and don’t let it get to you Cam, for the quarterbacks you will face are among the top in the game.  To those who will freely admit to still being Panthers fans, you will get a chance to watch a lot of good quarterback play this season, but it will once again come from those division rivalry teams, just hope that your top pick can come close to matching their performances.

Dan Uggla’s Streak: Baffling or Bound to Happen?

33 games, that is where Dan Uggla’s hitting streak came to an end against the Cubs on Sunday.  Two things come to mind upon reflection of this streak.  The first, and more obviously, how truly incredible the 56 game streak of DiMaggio is, so much that it may never be broken.  Secondly, however, is wondering if such a hitting streak for Uggla was a foregone conclusion.

Uggla was brought to Atlanta in the off-season via trade in the hopes of being the power hitting second baseman that the Braves needed.  As I have argued in one of my previous posts, second base is the new power position, a position where contenders cannot seem to afford to lose power in their lineup if they wish to continually contend.  Up until July 5^th, when the streak began, Uggla looked like he was not the piece that the Braves had been seeking, but instead a deadweight contract.

On July 5^th, Uggla stepped to the plate in Atlanta against the Rockies hitting an Adam Dunn-esque .173.  In 5 seasons with the Florida Marlins before the trade to Atlanta, Uggla had never hit below .243 for a season.  In the 2010 season he had a career high batting average of .287.  And in the 86 games before the streak began Uggla had managed only 12 homers, he had never hit fewer than 27 as a Marlin, including 31 or more in the last 4 seasons.  After the streak, Uggla has now belted a total of 27 homers, hitting 15 during the streak and raising his batting average for the season to .231.

This streak returned Uggla’s numbers to the same range of his career averages.  Earlier in this post I mentioned Adam Dunn, the White Sox designated hitter (I would have described him as a slugger, but then this season happened) who is hitting .161 with 11 homers.  He hasn’t hit fewer than 38 homers for the last 7 seasons and hasn’t hit below .234 in that same time period.  So will he go on a titanic tear in the last 40 games of the season?

I will predict that Adam Dunn will NOT do anything of the sort, even though he is the same age as Uggla—31.  That being said, it does not baffle me that Uggla brought his numbers closer to his career averages, back to the bell curve that is.  The numbers that MLB players in particular put up are just that—averages.  In a season that is so long, players go through ups and downs (although not usually as pronounced as Uggla) that lead to mathematically significant averages.  It is much easier for an NFL player to have a season (16 games long) that is a statistical anomaly, but baseball players cannot hide for 162 games.  Uggla has put up remarkably similar numbers for the 5 seasons he has completed in the majors, and every once in a while you see a guy have two completely different stories to his season to reach his averages like Uggla seems to have done.

Dan Uggla is a talented ball player who I believe will be able to string together some more seasons of solid offensive numbers that have come to be expected of him.  He will not touch the 56 games that so many players have not found themselves in the realm of, but he will patrol second base for the Braves, and help keep them contending.

Randy Moss’ Legacy: Also Adding to the Legacy of A Different Receiver

It would appear, unless some contending team later in the NFL season is willing to offer some good money, that Randy Moss’ outstanding career has come to a close.  This sometimes alienating, sometimes enticing figure will carry many difference legacies with him to Canton for many different people, but there is no doubt that he has left his mark of greatness on the game of football.

Moss’ on field prowess is clear as he is tied second all-time with 153 touchdown receptions, ranks fifth with 14,858 receiving yards, and is tied for eighth with 954 receptions.  Even these numbers and ranks, however, do not tell he whole story of his effect at the receiver position on the game of football.

At 6’4’’ Moss towered over most cornerbacks, at 210 lbs. he out muscled most cornerbacks, and with 4.35 speed in the 40-yard dash he streaked by most cornerbacks.  This physical combination was one that would change the way that receivers were looked at, and defenses were built.  The fact that his highest career rank is in touchdowns shows that he was a possession receiver, the likes of which still has never been seen in the NFL.  Moss got to balls that, thrown to other receivers, would have dropped as harmless overthrows.  His rookie season he led the league with 17 touchdown receptions and he would lead the league four times in his career including a single-season record 23 touchdown receptions in 2007.

His presence forced teams to devise defensive schemes that they would otherwise never play.  In 1999, the season after Moss’ stellar rookie campaign, the Packers selected 3 cornerbacks with their first 3 picks in the draft.  Moss could serve as a decoy in offensive schemes better than anyone, and defenses were forced to cover him with at least one defender.  Even still, all of this does not quite capture what Randy Moss’ legacy may look like.

As a Vikings fan I remember his stellar rookie campaign and I remember him “mooing” the cheeseheads in Green Bay, but I also remember being confused, verging on upset when the Vikings drafted him.  Moss had encountered legal troubles throughout his high school and college careers that included fighting and marijuana charges.  He had spent time in jail and was forced to play at Marshall, a school that had been a division I-AA school when he started there.  It may have been, however, that Moss landed in just the right situation in Minnesota.

When Moss arrived in Minnesota he came into a system that already had a star receiver—Cris Carter.  Carter ranks fourth all-time in career touchdown receptions, third in receptions, and eighth in receiving yards.  More importantly, however, Carter had faced drug and alcohol problems early in his career and would quickly build a relationship with Moss that would help the rookie through his first season and offer him a strong support system moving forward.  The combination of these two receivers may be the best tandem of receivers that the NFL has ever seen.  Moss led the league in touchdown receptions in 1998 and 2000, and Carter led the league in 1999 (also in 1997 when Moss was not on the team).  It may have been their relationship that was forged so quickly between the two of them that allowed Moss to develop quickly and Carter to continue to flourish in old age, both on their own paths to becoming two of the best receivers of all-time.

Randy Moss, beloved by many, will be missed.  His numbers and his antics, however, will not soon allow him to be forgotten.  It just so happened that he may have had some help along the way from a fellow receiver who does not yet find himself enshrined in Canton, but soon will.  Both will have horns forever on the sides of their helmets.