The True Story Told By Moneyball

For those unaware, the release of the new movie “Moneyball” is more than just another sports movie. It marks the final chapter of the emergence of intense, innovative statistical analysis into the mainstream of sports culture. It champions the work pioneered by such minds as Bill James and Craig Wright, and explores the application of this work by the likes of Billy Beane and Peter Brand into a winning formula on the baseball field.

The film, based on the book, “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game,” by Michael Lewis, centers on the Oakland Atheltics teams of the early 2000s that defied the odds and won huge amounts of games with a relatively minuscule team payroll. Once again, for those of you who do not know about this story (or even those who might), this story is just the tip of the numbers crunching iceberg that now resides in the sea of sports.

The 2011 NBA Finals saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Miami Heat. The Mavericks, owned by the indescribable Mark Cuban (in a few words, that is), won behind the play of Dirk Nowitzki, a bunch of aged stars, and some misfit players. Cuban’s secret? He paid a large sum of money for statistical research that he used to sign those pieces that he placed around his German-born star. This is just one example of the increased role of statistical analysis in the NBA.

“Soccernomics: Why England Loses, Why Germany and Brazil Win, and Why the U.S., Japan, Australia, Turkey—and Even Iraq—Are Destined to Become the Kings of the World’s Most Popular Sport,” a book by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, includes a section about the innovations made by the French team, Olympique Lyonnais (OL,) in the analysis of soccer. OL, a team that won Ligue 1 (the top league in France) a record 7 consecutive times beginning in 2001, has done so with a relatively small payroll. They have also had triumphs in UEFA Champions League (the top club tournament in Europe) over teams such as Real Madrid, a team that spends vast amounts of money on some of the biggest names in the game.

There are a myriad of other publications, blogs, and groups dedicated to the construction of creative methods of thinking about all sports. These ways are primarily aimed at finding methods of evaluating players and teams in an objective manner. One example of this is the new Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) that was developed by the Production Analytics team at ESPN to update the Passer Rating system used in the NFL. This new system takes into account all aspects of a quarterback’s game, and their level of play in given game scenarios. It weighs plays in clutch scenarios more than plays in meaningless situations; it also takes a look at sacks, fumbles, and rushing ability. This is a departure from the old passer rating that takes a one-dimensional look at a quarterback’s passing numbers.

This new rating system, along with watching the first three weeks of the NFL season, made me think of a new rating system that would be beneficial to both NFL teams and fans, alike.

In my short, juvenile football career, I played wide receiver. I prided myself on good route running and good hands. Speed, strength, general athletic ability, and height escaped me, however. These are just some of the things that are mentioned as the tools of a great receiver. Great receivers get noticed by scouts and find their way to NFL rosters via the draft, or do they?

Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Josh Cribbs, Lance Moore, Davone Bess, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Floyd, Victor Cruz, and Nate Washington; these are just some of the names on the extensive list of receivers who went undrafted. They have all found some amount of success in the NFL, and some quite a bit. Wes Welker, for example, has twice led the league in receptions, and this season, leads the league in receptions and receiving yards. That being said, it would appear that on some level, there exists a disconnect between the perceived talents of receivers by NFL scouts, and their actual prowess in the league.

There is no doubt, that a receiver such as Welker is the benefactor of a strong system around him that fits his strengths. But what are those strengths that allow him to be a good receiver? And, more importantly, can they be quantified? As I stated before there are a set of tools that would appear to be the tools of great receivers. These tools would be included in a “Total Wide Receiver Rating” (WRR). This rating would undoubtedly need to be adjusted for the quality of a receiver’s quarterback (a receivers strong hands or good route running would be meaningless if their quarterback cannot make accurate throws on time), but strong numbers in some areas may point teams to receivers that would flourish in their respective offensive schemes.

The quality of a receiver’s quarterback is just one piece of the complication of the quantification of a receiver’s potential in the NFL. Quantifying a receiver’s route running ability may include separation from the covering defensive back, or spacing from other defenders on the field, or even the ability to pull other defensive backs off of other routes. All of these ratings would be dependant on the quality of defensive back and the defensive scheme that they play based on coaching.

All of that being said, the quantification of a receiver’s ability would be immensely nuanced and would take algorithms and equations of vast complexity. If I were a coach, however, and I could have a receiving corps of Welker, Austin, Moore, and Cribbs (or some of their undrafted predecessors such as Wayne Chrebet and Rod Smith) without having to spend more than a 7th round pick, I would jump at it faster than Rex Ryan at food.

Who are some other players you may know who “weren’t good enough” for the 7 rounds of the draft. Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, or Tony Romo could be throwing footballs to the afore mentioned receivers and Antonio Gates, or handing the ball off to Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, or Ryan Grant. Other teams could be running against a linebacking corps of Bart Scott, James Harrison, London Fletcher, and Antonio Pierce behind a defensive line featuring John Randle, Pat Williams, and Adewale Ogunleye. If I were a coach, I would want some number crunching scout to tell me to draft those players. There is clearly more statistical innovation left in sports, and potentially more movies to follow.

Handicapper NFL Week 3

Houston at New Orleans (-3.5)

Watching the Saints sack Jay Cutler as often as Brian Cushing injects himself with performance enhancers couldn’t help but remind you of the days when the Houston Texans played what appeared to be a bunch of uncoordinated meatheads at offensive line in front of David Carr. Could you imagine if Jay Cutler backed up Eli Manning like Carr does now? That quarterbacking tandem would be whinier then a pre-school class that hasn’t had a nap.
Pick: Saints

New York (N) at Philadelphia (-7.5)

Remember when Tom Coughlin pulled his best Andy Reid and screwed up the end of a game like this? How do both of these coaches still have their jobs?
Pick: Eagles

Jacksonville at Carolina (-3.5)

CAM NEWTON!!! Cam Newton has thrown for 854 yards in his first two games. The entire Jaguars offense has gained 526 yards in the first two games. The Panthers have zero wins and the Jaguars have one. Sucks to be good enough to be the top pick and have a team that is as bad as the Panthers.
Pick: Jaguars (and to win)…this might just be a spite pick against Cam Newton.

New England at Buffalo (+8.5)

The last time the Bills beat the Patriots facebook, the iPod, and YouTube all did not exist. But the world was a better place because there was less discrimination, midget flag football players were allowed the same chance to play in the NFL, see.
Pick: Patriots

Miami at Cleveland (-2.5)

Last time Reggie Bush played against Sheldon Brown he got hit so hard he forgot how to play football. That is why he now plays for the Dolphins.
Pick: Dolphins (and to win).

San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)

The two quarterbacks featured in this game played at The University of Utah and Texas Christian respectively. These two programs are at the heart of conference realignment, when asked about it Smith and Dalton both responded, “Maybe if our teams had been in good conferences we could have comfortably looked like crap in college and gotten a chance to play for good teams in the NFL. That would have been nice.”
Pick: 49ers (and to win)

Denver at Tennessee (-7)

Chris Johnson still has yet to break the 100-yard mark, for the season, combined, total. He has 77 yards on the ground. Oddly enough, 77-yards was the total number of yards for a RB the last time the Broncos held a team under 100 yards. It was in that same year, 1987, that a prophesy was made that a savior QB would come off of the bench to play WR and have 0 total yards for the Broncos.
Pick: Titans (and to win)

Detroit at Minnesota (+3.5)

In my viewing of college football this season on ESPN, I have found myself asking, “Why did they hire Matt Millen? He’s an idiot and drove the Lions into the ground.” Now I find myself asking, “Why does Donovan McNabb have a job? Oh, because Rick Speilman is an idiot and is driving the Vikings into the ground.” Former idiots against current idiots, who wins?
Pick: Former idiots (Lions)

Baltimore at St. Louis (+3.5)

How do you know the Ravens defense isn’t as good as it used to be? They hold Chris Johnson to 53 yards and lose to the Titans because they let MATT HASSELBECK throw for 358 yards. Now they face a Rams team without Steven Jackson…Sam Bradford for 400 anybody?
Pick: Ravens

New York (A) at Oakland (+3.5)

When asked what they might do in Oakland while they are there several Jets players had responses. LaDainian Tomlinson said he might try to meet up with old teammates from San Diego, Mark Sanchez said he might go back to his alma mater, the receiving corps said they may try to see Braylon Edwards in San Francisco. Antonio Cromartie said, “I dunno, this is one of the few cities in which I don’t have a kid. So I might go and do that.”
Pick: Jets

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5)

The probability of Vince Wilfork catching more passes from Philip Rivers than Antonio Gates have to be about as good as getting BLOWN out by the Bills and Lions in consecutive weeks by a combined score of 89-10. Oh, wow, both of those things happened. I would say that I have seen stranger, but I don’t know.
Pick: Chargers.

Arizona at Seattle (+3.5)

Remember when Pete Carroll and Matt Leinart were an unstoppable force and being talked about as one of the best college teams in history? There was talk that the two would reunite in Seattle. Instead Carroll decided that Tarvaris Jackson would be a better bet…than the former Heisman winning, all-everything quarterback. Man the Cardinals really screwed Matt Leinart up.
Pick: Seahawks (and to win)

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

When asked how it felt to come from behind and beat the vaunted Eagles, Matt Ryan responded with, “It was great, I just wish we could have done it against Mick Vick and not Mike Kafka.” Josh Freeman asked how it felt to come from behind to beat the Vikings, he responded, “It felt great, I just wish we could have done it against a good football team, not the Vikings.”
Pick: Falcons (and to win)

Green Bay at Chicago (+3.5)

Last week Brian Urlacher played after enduring the death and funeral of his mother. In that one game he showed more heart and faith in his teammates than Jay Cutler has shown in his pro and college careers combined.
Pick: Packers

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10.5)

Both of these teams got embarrassed in week 1. The Steelers responded by winning 24-0 in week 2. The Colts responded by losing at home…to the Browns…the Browns. The one time people in Indiana might be looking forward to the Pacers season starting the NBA might lockout. Life is more miserable than usual in Indianapolis.
Pick: Colts

Washington at Dallas (-6.5)

DeAngelo Hall stated publicly that he would go after Tony Romo’s ribs because of the injury he suffered in week 2. Tim Tebow weighed in saying that he wouldn’t suffer that kind of injury because his was removed by God to create woman. That’s right I have now referenced Adam and Jesus when describing Tim Tebow, he is the new hybrid. No, not crappy quarterback and crappier receiver, first man and the son of man. BOOM.
Pick: Redskins

AL MVP Race: Singing a Different Tune

While the AL wildcard race has become increasingly murky, the AL MVP race has become increasingly clear in my mind. The choice that has become increasingly clear in my mind took some prodding to arrive at. The clear choice—Justin Verlander.

While many voters and reporters often remove pitchers from the MVP consideration because they are not everyday players, I believe that Verlander is still the most valuable player in the American League. There are several different reasons for this.

The first is a point that was just recently brought to my attention, and one that is incredibly simple I am shocked I haven’t thought of it earlier. The fact of the matter is that position players earn recognition in an MVP race almost entirely based on what they do when they step into the batter’s box. While pitchers earn recognition based on how they pitch to the batters that they face. That is to say that as long as a player is adequate playing defense, then it will neither count for nor against the player in MVP consideration.

That being said Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista (three position players mentioned at the top of the MVP list) have come to the plate 679, 654, and 612 times respectively. They have each had that many opportunities to help their team score runs. Justin Verlander has faced 938 batters so far this year. That is how many times he has been called on to help his team. So while he may only pitch every five days or so, he has been called upon to help his team more than any of the leading offensive candidates.

For all of you defensive gurus out there, I haven’t completely ignored this part of the game. The WAR (wins above replacement player) is a measure that has become more broadly used in baseball circles as a measure of a players value to their team. For the position players, their defensive prowess (or lack thereof) is taken into account when calculating their total WAR. The leaders in the MVP race, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Jose Bautista have WAR ratings of 7.2, 5.2, and 8.5 respectively. One of them, Curtis Granderson has a negative defensive WAR rating, which means that the average player at his position is a better fielder than he is.

The number that we should consider is the 8.5 WAR rating of Jose Bautista. This is tied for the highest WAR rating in the American League with…yup, Justin Verlander. Verlander has earned this extraordinary WAR rating by leading the league in ERA, ERA+ (which is adjusted for the pitcher’s ballpark), WHIP, strikeouts, winning percentage, wins, and innings pitched. Leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts is the pitcher’s equivalent of the triple crown.

To put his season in perspective, he has as many wins as Jeremy Hellickson and Chad Billingsley combined, and they both have a higher average run support per game than Verlander. If he does notch his 25th win, he will be the first to do so since Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics in 1990. He is the first pitcher since Ron Guidry in 1978 to post 24 wins with at least 240 strikeouts. He has notched 12 consecutive wins coming down the stretch as the Tigers have clinched the AL Central title, and a spot in the playoffs.

While Bautista has had a monster year, he will be watching October baseball from the comfort of his couch. Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury have not had the same impact for their teams as Verlander has. Verlander’s year, while it may only be 33 games, has been insanely impressive and as I have already shown, 33 games of action have been more than enough to put him in the company of the position players in this race.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Kansas City at Detroit (-8)

The NFL measures success by wins and losses, but shouldn’t it count for more if you get outgained by 150 yards by the Bills like the Chiefs did in week 1? The last time the Bills did that O.J. Simpson was making Hertz ads, flying around like Superman.
Pick: Chiefs

Oakland at Buffalo (-3)

Holy crap can anyone think of a game that America could care less about. Chances people in Oakland will wake up to watch this game are about as good as Al Davis’ chance of waking up period.
Pick: Raiders (and to win)

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3)

The NFL season was not the only thing happening last Sunday. The Women’s Final at the U.S. Open was being played. The Vikings have reported that they accidentally had Serena Williams playing quarterback and McNabb was the one who got crushed by Samantha Stosur in the Finals at the U.S. Open. Can’t blame them for that mix-up can you?
Pick: Bucs (and to win)

Chicago at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week the Saints tried to channel their inner Chicago and play power football at the goal line. Meanwhile Jay Cutler tried to channel his in inner Drew Brees and not be a whiny, moronic quarterback. Both were fails, epic fails.
Pick: Saints

Baltimore at Tennessee (+6)

Did anyone tell Chris Johnson that his hold out was over? Oh, the Titans just gave him that much money to serve as a decoy, and set up the play action pass for their ancient quarterback to throw to their crappy receivers. That’s an expensive way to lose to the Jaguars, and everyone else in the league. Good thing they fired Jeff Fisher.
Pick: Ravens

Cleveland at Indianapolis (+2)

A Colts quarterback passed Joe Montana on the all-time passing yards list, and it was KERRY COLLINS? That can’t actually happen, just like the Browns being favored at Lucas Oil Stadium. Wow, the world really is going to end soon.
Pick: Browns

Jacksonville at New York (A) (-9)

The Jets might never wear their green pants this season. They saw how comfortable Mark Sanchez is in white pants, and he looks so good in them too. Anyone else want to push him down the stadium stairs and see where he lands?
Pick: Jets

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14)

Remember when these two teams squared off in Super Bowl XL? Since then Hines Ward has faced DUI charges, Ben Roethlisberger crashed a motorcycle and has been accused of sexual assault twice, and they turned the ball over 7 times last week. The Seahawks are so bad they had to sign Tarvaris Jackson and chose to wear these uniforms. If you ask me these two teams don’t have a Super Bowl hangover, they are still on their Super Bowl benders.
Pick: Seahawks

Arizona at Washington (-3.5)

If the Arizona defense is really as bad as they are billed to be, Rex Grossman could be the in MVP conversation; but only after two games. Eventually he will disappoint cross-dressing Redskins fans beyond repair, and they will want their cross-dressing running back to return.
Pick: Redksins

Green Bay at Carolina (+10)

Last week, Cam Newton lost for the first time since 2009, when he was in Junior College. Also, Jimmy Clausen didn’t get booed for the first time since 2009, when he was at Notre Dame, which at this point is Junior College football.
Pick: Packers

Dallas at San Francisco (+3)

How do you lose the tag of “America’s Team?” You have Tony Romo at quarterback choke under pressure like the French army, or like your biggest fan, LeBron James, and have him cheer you on from a skybox as you do it. Yup, Cowboys you have officially accomplished that task and are now, “Jerry Jones’ Expensive Overrated Team that Plays Well for 3 Quarters and then Blows It.” Doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.
Pick: Cowboys

San Diego at New England (-7)

This match-up could be a preview of the AFC Championship game. What separates these teams? Bill Belichick coaches the Patriots and the Chargers are led by Norv Turner. Who would you want taking a math test for you; an MIT grad or the weird kid down the street who eats his boogers? That’s right, Norv Turner eats his own boogers.
Pick: Patriots

Houston at Miami (+3)

The Patriots ran up the score on the Dolphins, seemingly in part because Tony Sparano got really excited when his team scored. It’s not his fault his offense sucks and even he was shocked when Chad Henne was able to do something of value.
Pick: Texans

Cincinnati at Denver (-3.5)

Broncos fans are taking out a billboard in support of Tim Tebow. Meanwhile Notre Dame fans have taken out a billboard apologizing to Brady Quinn and asking him to come back.
Pick: Broncos

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+2.5)

Instead of running a Madden simulation for this game, all across the country people have put jerseys on dogs and fought them to pick the winner…too soon?
Pick: Falcons (and to win)

St. Louis at New York (N) (-6)

The Rams lost half of their team to injuries in the first week and Eli Manning still cried more than the rest of the guys in this game combined. Archie has looked into disowning Eli so that the Manning quarterback legacy isn’t further damaged while his prodigal son recovers from surgery.
Pick: Giants

Last Week: 5-10-1

Last Week Just Winners: 7-9

NFL Week 1 Picks

New Orleans at Green Bay (-4) 

With Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown celebration being the championship belt, it makes you wonder what an actual fight between Aaron Rodgers and the previous Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees might look like.  I envision it looking something like this.  Quick, some one call Don King and get this into the ring.

Pick:  Packers

 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5) 

After their war of words via Twitter, Ryan Clark is going to be hunting for Ray Rice.  What are the chances that he gets fined more money for illegal hits in this game than James Harrison?  About the same as Ben Roethlisberger’s marriage lasting more than a year.

Pick:  Steelers (and to win)

 

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1.5) 

Remember when your mom told you that you should be nice to the nerds because they might be your bosses some day?  Well this game is like a game between the nerds, no one really cares, yet.

Pick:  Bucs

 

Atlanta at Chicago (+3)

Has anyone still found out how in the world the Bears made it back to the NFC Championship game last year?  The worst part, they may actually want Rex Grossman back now.

Pick:  Atlanta

Bonus:  Over/Under 5 signs attacking Jay Cutler—I am taking the over.

 

Buffalo at Kansas City (-6)

The Bills have filed a petition with the NFL after looking at the matchup for this game; they thought it was unfair that they had to play the Patriots three times this year.  Ryan Fitzpatrick had to explain to everyone that all of the players and coaches were not actually part of the Patriots organization anymore.

Pick:  Chiefs

 

Indianapolis at Houston (-9) 

I am with Reggie Wayne, I also have confidence in…wait, what is his name; the guy who has been holding the clipboard of Peyton’s offense for so long.  Yeah, not going to be able to think of it.  Foster needed 231 yards on the ground last year to beat the Colts, he may only need 31 this year.

Pick:  Texans

 

Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5) 

After a pathetic off-season that saw many of his critics scoff at the $100 million contract Mike Vick received from the Eagles, Vick admits that having been away from the organization for so long during the lockout he forgot to adjust for the ARGF in his throws.  The Andy Reid Gravitational Force is a serious phenomenon and the U.S. government is still trying to account for Reid’s whereabouts during the earthquake just a few weeks ago on the east coast.

Pick:  Eagles

 

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-6.5) 

When asked if he would feel comfortable being the starting quarterback for the Bengals, Andy Dalton responded “Well I thought I would be comfortable because with orange helmets I just treated it like a toss with my family, but I found out the Browns wear orange helmets too.  I thought their helmets were going to be brown, so now I will be confused.”

Pick:  Browns

 

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-2)

In a few weeks this game would have featured a duel between first-round picks Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert.  Instead it is a duel between a washed-up old bald guy who lost his job in Seattle to Tarvaris Jackson and a guy who was rejected by the Browns because he wasn’t good enough—yeah, now NO one will watch this game.

Pick:  Titans (and to win)

 

New York (N) at Washington (+3) 

If people aren’t already questioning whether or not Mike Shanahan is actually a good coach, they should.  Either that, or he realized how screwed up the Redskins organization is and wants out and he figured no quarterback could quite ruin a coaching career like Rex Grossman.

Pick:  Giants

 

Carolina at Arizona (-7) 

During contract negotiations, Bus Cook, Cam Newton’s agent, had to remind Cam’s dad that this wasn’t college anymore and that the whole idea was pay-for-play so his son could get more than $180,000 under the table.  Now Cecil Newton will have to be reminded that his son isn’t the kid with the weird pituitary gland anymore and won’t be able to run over everyone.  Anyone else looking forward to him getting flattened?

Pick:  Cardinals

 

Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5) 

I wonder if Pete Carroll coached Marshawn Lynch to grab his crotch at the end of that run that sealed the fate of the Saints in the playoffs to stick it to Reggie Bush.  I think they should make a mold of that moment and give it to the college player who took the most illegal benefits each year and escapes penalty.

Pick:  San Francisco

 

Minnesota at San Diego (-8.5) 

Even the notoriously slow starting Chargers couldn’t falter against a team that now serves as the exit ramp between great careers and retirement and waste number 12 picks on a guy with a name that sounds like a gimmicky theologian—Christian Ponder, really?

Pick: Chargers

 

Dallas at New York (A) (-4.5) 

What are the chances that Rex Ryan signed Plaxico in the hopes that he might accidentally shoot himself again, only this time hitting his foot instead of his thigh and then Rex would be there to save the day and get a chance to nurse his foot back to health and tape the whole thing for his enjoyment later?  Yeah, I thought it was a long shot too.  May the best Ryan win.

Pick:  Cowboys (and to win)

 

New England at Miami (+7) 

Miami has decided that they are only good enough to have Heisman winning running backs on their roster.  The subtraction of pothead Ricky Williams meant that they had to sign oft-injured and overrated Reggie Bush.  Man don’t they wish they had the small white guy they used to have playing receiver who never won anything in his life, Wes Welker, back.

Pick:  Patriots

 

Oakland at Denver (-3)

This game got slated for Monday Night Football?  I know there are two games on the first Monday night, but who thought that this would be a good one to show.  Whoever it is got a 5-game suspension for selling his soul to the devil (a.k.a Al Davis)

Pick:  Broncos