50 touchdown passes in a single season. This is the record number that Tom Brady put up during the 2007 season. Record numbers, however, seem to have little to no meaning thus far in the NFL season. An NFL season that started despite the numerous feelings that it might not happen because of a lockout has already found its place in unquestioned history. The comebacks, the rookie records (see Cam Newton), the surprise teams (see Redskins, Lions, Bills), the disappointing teams (see Eagles, Falcons), and Calvin Johnson (a.k.a. Megatron) have all placed the first four weeks of this season on a pedestal of football achievement. With this in mind, what are some of the records that could actually fall at the end of the season and not just in the first quarter of the season?
My friend is a huge Packers fan (I know that is somewhat oxymoronic, but its like me having friends who are Yankees fans (which he is too), they are inescapable) and, not unexpectedly, is huge on Aaron Rodgers. For those of you who have not been following the first four weeks of the NFL, the defending Super Bowl MVP, Rodgers, is second in the league with 12 touchdown passes and fourth with 1,325 yards. And for you mathematician sports fans you will notice that through 4 games, Rodgers is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards (5,084), but so are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo.
That record could easily fall to any of the six guys on the list (although some more likely than others) and truth be told, it is a record that is bound to fall some point soon. Fifteen of the next nineteen seasons of the most passing yards have happened since Marino’s record year in 1984. A record that is more intriguing is Tom Brady’s single season record of 50 touchdown passes. Quick, once again, mathematician sports fans, is Aaron Rodgers on pace? No, not quite. He is on pace to throw for 48 touchdowns, but if you put the pieces together, there is someone on pace to break that record.
The leader in the NFL right now has thrown 13 touchdown passes, on pace for 52, and that QB is—Tom Brady. But what are the chances that the half-century mark falls to either of these hurlers?
There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers has a plethora of offensive weapons that will help his pursuit of this record. A receiving corps that boasts Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson (recently the benefactor of a contract extension), James Jones and emerging rookie Randall Cobb, not to mention a healthy Jermichael Finley at tight end, give Rodgers enough threats that redzone visits usually turn out well.
The Packers are not a one-dimensional offense, however. Ryan Grant and James Starks form a one-two punch at running back that give the Packers another dimension, and another dimension may mean less chances for Rodgers. This may be the least of Rodgers fans’ worries, however, as he pursues this record. What are some of the big worries?
Lambeau Field, the frozen tundra that the Packers call home, is not known to be historically kind to quarterbacks at the end of seasons. Three of the five regular season games that the Packers will play in December and January this year will be in Green Bay and one of the others will be played outside against the Giants in New Jersey. Rodgers has never thrown more than 8 touchdowns in December and January regular season games combined, in a single season (Brady had 11 in December and January in 2007). In these games, the roles of Ryan Grant and James Starks will most likely become magnified.
The last thing that may actually count against Rodgers in his pursuit is the Packers’ record. The Packers, right now, sit at 4-0. They are one only two teams in the NFL that remains unbeaten. The Packers are also no strangers to injury. While they made a remarkable run to a Super Bowl victory with a long list of injuries last season, they understand that an injury to Aaron Rodgers would be crippling (no offense Matt Flynn, I think you are a very good backup quarterback). Depending on where their record places them in the NFC Playoff picture late in the season, Rodgers may find himself on the bench as the Packers try to protect him for a title defense.
What about Tom Brady? Brady is in a similar situation. He has a good set of weapons (Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez), he has a good running game, 3 of his 5 games in Decemeber and January are in frozen Foxboro, and if he were to get injured the Patriots would be below mediocre (they are 3-1 right now).
I chose not to consider the rankings of the defenses of the teams that remain for the two quarterbacks in the final 12 games of the season because after four weeks as wild as this, rankings, I believe, do not have enough merit. Injuries happen that change defenses, and anomalies happen in the first four weeks that artificially influence a team’s total numbers. With all of the strikes against Rodgers, I do not see him breaking the half-century mark. I think a season of 35-40 touchdown passes is much more conceivable, and also very impressive. As for Brady, his defense is so paltry that he may have to continue at the current pace to keep his team where he wants them. But I see him falling short too, probably between 40-45 touchdowns.
But a Rodgers vs. Brady Super Bowl would be pretty exciting. Any takers?
thebullpenblogger 