Rodgers vs. Brady Race to a Record: Clearly Not a Foot Race

50 touchdown passes in a single season. This is the record number that Tom Brady put up during the 2007 season. Record numbers, however, seem to have little to no meaning thus far in the NFL season. An NFL season that started despite the numerous feelings that it might not happen because of a lockout has already found its place in unquestioned history. The comebacks, the rookie records (see Cam Newton), the surprise teams (see Redskins, Lions, Bills), the disappointing teams (see Eagles, Falcons), and Calvin Johnson (a.k.a. Megatron) have all placed the first four weeks of this season on a pedestal of football achievement. With this in mind, what are some of the records that could actually fall at the end of the season and not just in the first quarter of the season?

My friend is a huge Packers fan (I know that is somewhat oxymoronic, but its like me having friends who are Yankees fans (which he is too), they are inescapable) and, not unexpectedly, is huge on Aaron Rodgers. For those of you who have not been following the first four weeks of the NFL, the defending Super Bowl MVP, Rodgers, is second in the league with 12 touchdown passes and fourth with 1,325 yards. And for you mathematician sports fans you will notice that through 4 games, Rodgers is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards (5,084), but so are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo.

That record could easily fall to any of the six guys on the list (although some more likely than others) and truth be told, it is a record that is bound to fall some point soon. Fifteen of the next nineteen seasons of the most passing yards have happened since Marino’s record year in 1984. A record that is more intriguing is Tom Brady’s single season record of 50 touchdown passes. Quick, once again, mathematician sports fans, is Aaron Rodgers on pace? No, not quite. He is on pace to throw for 48 touchdowns, but if you put the pieces together, there is someone on pace to break that record.

The leader in the NFL right now has thrown 13 touchdown passes, on pace for 52, and that QB is—Tom Brady. But what are the chances that the half-century mark falls to either of these hurlers?

There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers has a plethora of offensive weapons that will help his pursuit of this record. A receiving corps that boasts Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson (recently the benefactor of a contract extension), James Jones and emerging rookie Randall Cobb, not to mention a healthy Jermichael Finley at tight end, give Rodgers enough threats that redzone visits usually turn out well.

The Packers are not a one-dimensional offense, however. Ryan Grant and James Starks form a one-two punch at running back that give the Packers another dimension, and another dimension may mean less chances for Rodgers. This may be the least of Rodgers fans’ worries, however, as he pursues this record. What are some of the big worries?

Lambeau Field, the frozen tundra that the Packers call home, is not known to be historically kind to quarterbacks at the end of seasons. Three of the five regular season games that the Packers will play in December and January this year will be in Green Bay and one of the others will be played outside against the Giants in New Jersey. Rodgers has never thrown more than 8 touchdowns in December and January regular season games combined, in a single season (Brady had 11 in December and January in 2007). In these games, the roles of Ryan Grant and James Starks will most likely become magnified.

The last thing that may actually count against Rodgers in his pursuit is the Packers’ record. The Packers, right now, sit at 4-0. They are one only two teams in the NFL that remains unbeaten. The Packers are also no strangers to injury. While they made a remarkable run to a Super Bowl victory with a long list of injuries last season, they understand that an injury to Aaron Rodgers would be crippling (no offense Matt Flynn, I think you are a very good backup quarterback). Depending on where their record places them in the NFC Playoff picture late in the season, Rodgers may find himself on the bench as the Packers try to protect him for a title defense.

What about Tom Brady? Brady is in a similar situation. He has a good set of weapons (Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez), he has a good running game, 3 of his 5 games in Decemeber and January are in frozen Foxboro, and if he were to get injured the Patriots would be below mediocre (they are 3-1 right now).

I chose not to consider the rankings of the defenses of the teams that remain for the two quarterbacks in the final 12 games of the season because after four weeks as wild as this, rankings, I believe, do not have enough merit. Injuries happen that change defenses, and anomalies happen in the first four weeks that artificially influence a team’s total numbers. With all of the strikes against Rodgers, I do not see him breaking the half-century mark. I think a season of 35-40 touchdown passes is much more conceivable, and also very impressive. As for Brady, his defense is so paltry that he may have to continue at the current pace to keep his team where he wants them. But I see him falling short too, probably between 40-45 touchdowns.

But a Rodgers vs. Brady Super Bowl would be pretty exciting. Any takers?

The Unexpected Source of Pressure on Cam Newton

Arguably, Cam Newton, the first overall pick in the most recent NFL Draft, does not have tough competition for the starting quarterback job in Carolina, where he ended up.  According to the Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which was recently released by ESPN as a new, more comprehensive measure for quarterbacks in the NFL, Jimmy Clausen was one of two QBs to receive a rating below 35.  The rating is based on a 0-100 scale; the higher the number, the better the quarterback’s performance.  According to this new rating system, Brett Favre’s 2010 performance earned him a paltry 25.8 rating.  How bad was Jimmy Clausen?  How about an intensely pathetic, Chris Weinke-esque (sorry to bring up more painful memories Panthers fans, if you exist) 11.7 rating.

Following such an introduction, you might think that this blog is going to be used to bash Clausen, or boost Newton.  In fact it is going to be used to do neither.  I will, at the onset, admit that I do NOT have a seat on the Cam Newton bandwagon.  I did not really have to make this disclaimer, but I thought I should do it for the sake of full disclosure.  Instead, this blog is about the difficulty that Cam Newton will have reaching the bar that was clearly not set by his teammate Clausen, but instead by the three other men playing quarterback in his division (and two of them are not much older than Cam).

Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Josh Freeman are the three starting quarterbacks for the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (the other teams in the NFC South) respectively.  Based on the new QBR rating system released by ESPN, the average rating for these three quarterbacks in the 2010 season was 66; and they all ranked in the top 8 quarterbacks in the league.  The closest division in terms of the average rating of the starting quarterbacks was the AFC South (Peyton Manning, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and Kerry Collins) with a 60.15.

Drew Brees, whose 65.9 rating in 2010 placed him 6^th in the league, had a 77.2 rating in 2009 that was second.  It was this season, culminating in a Super Bowl victory and the game’s MVP award, that solidified Brees as a household name.  He had been considered among the top echelon of quarterbacks in the league and has garnered the attention that goes along with his level of play.  There is no doubt that when the Panthers face the Saints this season, Panthers fans will see one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he will be on the wrong side of the ball.

The two more intriguing players are Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman.  Matt Ryan, the 25-year old slinger for the Atlanta Falcons, has quickly made a name for himself.  His 68.6 QBR rating in 2010 was 3^rd, behind only Brady and the elder Manning, and he led his Falcons team to the playoffs for the second time in his three years as the starting quarterback.  He has increased his touchdowns by six in each of his first 3 seasons, reaching a high of 28 in the 2010 season.  His interception numbers bottomed out last year at 9, and have never been higher than 14.  There is no doubt that “Matty Ice” is here to stay in the top realms of the quarterback world.

The other quarterback who will put the pressure on Newton in his two meetings with the Panthers is Josh Freeman.  Freeman, who at 21, was a year younger than Newton is when he entered the NFL.  Last season Freeman threw for almost 3,500 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions.  His numbers, as well as the numbers of Ryan, compare favorably with the first years of the careers of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and the aforementioned Drew Brees.  I will not bore you with numerous statistics that show the superior ability of these quarterbacks; but instead I will remind you that these young quarterbacks have, most importantly, found a way to lead their teams to victory.  Ryan, Brees, and Freeman combined to lead their teams to a combined 34 wins (13, 11, and 10 respectively) last season.

When, as I believe he will early in the season, Cam Newton steps under center as the Carolina Panthers starting quarterback, he will have some wonderful models who have left huge shoes to fill.  As I previously stated I am not on the Newton bandwagon, and I do not believe that he will be able to match the stellar performances of these quarterbacks, even though there are two of them who are similar in age to the heralded Heisman winner.  So be weary of the pressure and don’t let it get to you Cam, for the quarterbacks you will face are among the top in the game.  To those who will freely admit to still being Panthers fans, you will get a chance to watch a lot of good quarterback play this season, but it will once again come from those division rivalry teams, just hope that your top pick can come close to matching their performances.