Watching the parade of bike riders with steroid infused legs and doped blood in the Tour de France allows for the realization that the steroid era may be over in Major League Baseball, although I would like to see the results on a test of Jose Bautista. Taking a look back there is one interesting trend that shows itself in the numbers, a puzzling power shift.
Double play partners in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s usually consisted of a slugging shortstop and a similarly slugging second baseman. The emergence of names such as Robinson Cano (see the most recent Homerun Derby), Dustin Pedroia (2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP), Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, and Ian Kinsler just to name a few have made shortstops slight relative to their double play partners. This power shift even defies the drop in power recognized with the end of the dark ages of steroids.
In the 2003 season second baseman combined to hit 415 homeruns and post a .405 slugging percentage. That same season, a season now buried in steroid controversy, shortstops combined to belt 422 homers with a .397 slugging percentage. Given the sample size of 19006 at-bats and 18610 at-bats, for second baseman and shortstops respectively, these numbers are remarkably similar.
Fast-forward seven years to the end of the 2010 season and an interesting trend can be noticed. This season saw second baseman hit 409 homeruns while slugging .389. Second baseman, overall, had 250 fewer at-bats in 2010 so their at-bat per homerun ratio is almost identical between the two seasons (45.8 in 2003, 45.86 in 2010). Shortstops in 2010, however, saw the total number of homeruns drop to 313 and their slugging percentage to .374. While they too came to the plate more often in 2003, 194 fewer at-bats in 2010, their at-bat to homerun ratio climbed from 44.1 in 2003 to 58.8 in 2010.
Several different questions arise along with these numbers. The first is what about the relative age of the players?
In the 2010 season the average age of the men who started the most games at second base for each team was exactly 29 years of age; the average age in 2003—28.7. This is not a huge difference. The difference in the age of the shortstops is more significant. The average age of the players who started the most games at shortstop for each team in 2010 was 28.2 years; the average age in 2003—26.9. So the difference in the average age gaps over the period of time is an entire year. This is not a minor difference in age, but it is one that arguably should not be responsible for the power shift that occurred.
Secondly what were the power numbers like at the other positions during this period bridging the steroid era and an era of hopefully clean players?
From 2003 to 2010 no defensive position, or the DH, saw the number of combined homeruns hit increase. In fact two positions, shortstop and leftfield, saw their homerun totals drop by more than 25%. By far the smallest drop was recognized at second base, 1.5%. The only other position that saw their homerun total drop by less than 5% was first base, a 4.2% drop. So the power in the bats of second basemen last season stands in contrast to the drooping bats of their teammates since the 2003 height of the steroid era.
So what do all of these numbers mean?
There is a remarkable crop of second basemen playing in the Majors right now. This power shift will inevitably swing back to the other side of the second base bag at some point. But for now stars of today such as Cano, Pedroia, Utley, Uggla, Kinsler, Rickie Weeks, and Brandon Phillips have replaced the shortstop crop of the late 90’s and early 2000’s: Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Barry Larkin, Jimmy Rollins, and Edgar Renteria. For those teams in contention, it is difficult to overcome a deficiency at second base in the lineup if they wish to continue to contend.
When you turn on a game in the coming week take a look at the guy playing second base, he is probably the one you want to be keeping an eye on, at least for now.
thebullpenblogger 