Sabathia is Tough, But Not Tough Enough

Last night may have been C.C. Sabathia’s most important start of the year.  He threw 128 pitches, the second most in his career, scattered 10 hits, resulting in only 2 runs over 6 innings and ultimately a win against bitter division rival and leader the Boston Red Sox.  While it may have been enough for a win in the game, it was not nearly enough for another win that Sabathia has been chasing.

The Cy Young award, given to the best pitcher in each league, would appear to be a race between Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, and maybe some other minor contenders.  Sabathia’s performance last night may have been good enough for a victory against the Red Sox, but he will be thankful that he does not have a Cy Young related incentive in his contract because it was not good enough to win that award.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.  Against the three teams that find themselves atop the three divisions in the American League (Tigers, Rangers, and Red Sox) Sabathia’s numbers have been less than stellar.  His ERA for the season is 2.99.  His ERA in his starts against those three teams so far this season—5.54.  He has posted an 18-7 record this year, but is only 3-5 against those three teams.

Justin Verlander’s numbers tell a different story.  His ERA for the season is 2.38.  Due to the fact that his team is in first place in the Central division, I calculated his results again the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees.  The Yankees, it appears, will make the playoffs even if they finish second in the division, they boast the third best record in the Majors, and have scored the most runs in the Majors so far this year.  So what is Verlander’s ERA against those three teams?  2.70—close to his season average.  His 20-5 record is aided by a 1-1 record in his starts against the three teams in question.

While neither has been overly impressive against the other best teams in the American League so far this year, Verlander has pitched close to his stellar averages.  Sabathia has taken huge steps backward against the toughest competition.  This race, in my mind, is over and Justin Verlander is the pinnacle of pitching performance in the American League.

Years Later: Could Jeff Weaver Still be Hurting the Yankees?

5-years and $85 million dollars.  Those are the principal numbers for the contract extension that Jered Weaver signed this past week with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  With an earned run average (ERA) that has settled at 2.28, tops in the American League, reports have insisted that by signing this contract he scorned $40-$50 million more.

On the surface this story is about Weaver taking less money to remain close to home and play for an organization that he has come to love and respect.  It is about him joining the likes of players such as Joe Mauer, taking less money (although still huge sums) and not taking their services to the masses asking for new, record-breaking contracts.

Deeper, however, there is the hint of a trend starting to show itself.  All that extra money that Weaver may have sacrificed in signing the contract extension with the Angels would most likely have come from one of the two biggest spenders in the Majors:  The Yankees and The Red Sox.  Starting pitching, especially outstanding starting pitching, is hard to come by, and even harder because you need to find 5 adequate starting pitchers for your team, and that is if they stay healthy.  Weaver is a new face in a growing trend of pitchers choosing not to bear the burden of New York pressure or Boston tradition.

Over the past few seasons, some big name pitchers have been mentioned in connection with the Yankees in particular, pitchers such as:  Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, and even a return for former Yankee Ted Lilly.  How many of these pitchers are donning Yankees uniforms?  Zero.  And for the foreseeable future, Jered Weaver will join that list of premier pitchers who will not find a home in the Bronx or Boston.

There have been several big name free agent pitchers that have found their way to New York, however.  One off-season in particular saw the arrival of both C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to the bright lights and pinstripes of New York.  One of these pitchers has continued his pace as a perennial Cy Young candidate, while the other has found his way onto a much more dubious list—the list of pitchers to falter on one of baseball’s biggest stages.  This list has swelled and includes familiar names:  Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Jon Lieber, and the most interesting of them all Jeff Weaver.

Jeff Weaver, the older brother of Jered Weaver, would find his way via trade to the bright lights of New York from the doldrums of Detroit.  Jeff came up to the Majors in 1999 with the Tigers and that season he would post a 5.55 ERA in 29 starts, good for a 0.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement player) rating.  His next two seasons in Detroit would find him start at least 30 games, post an ERA under 4.35, and earn a WAR rating over 3.  He began the 2002 season in Detroit and had a 3.18 ERA in his first 17 starts and a WAR rating of 2.7.  He would then get traded to New York and have a 4.04 ERA with them, good for a WAR of 1.4.  The following season would be his only full season with the Yankees.  He posted a 5.99 ERA, had a career high WHIP (Walk and Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.619, and a WAR rating of -0.3.  He would pitch the next season for the Dodgers and have an ERA of 4.01, a WHIP of 1.300, and a WAR of 1.9.  This story is indicative of many of the pitchers who find their way New York.

While there are success stories such as C.C. Sabathia, they seem to be coming fewer and further between.  A former teammate of Sabathia’s, Cliff Lee, made one of the biggest splashes in the most recent off-season by turning away millions more dollars in New York to go back and pitch in Philadelphia.  Jered Weaver preemptively scorned those millions with his contract extension.  Are pitchers wary to go to the big stages in New York and Boston?  Are they afraid of ruining longevity by trashing their psyche under the pressure?  Might it actually make them more money in the long term to not pitch in New York and take more contracts with other teams?  These are interesting ideas, and ones that should be watched more closely in coming years.  The advice of an older brother may mean more than millions of dollars, just ask the Weavers.