33 games, that is where Dan Uggla’s hitting streak came to an end against the Cubs on Sunday. Two things come to mind upon reflection of this streak. The first, and more obviously, how truly incredible the 56 game streak of DiMaggio is, so much that it may never be broken. Secondly, however, is wondering if such a hitting streak for Uggla was a foregone conclusion.
Uggla was brought to Atlanta in the off-season via trade in the hopes of being the power hitting second baseman that the Braves needed. As I have argued in one of my previous posts, second base is the new power position, a position where contenders cannot seem to afford to lose power in their lineup if they wish to continually contend. Up until July 5th, when the streak began, Uggla looked like he was not the piece that the Braves had been seeking, but instead a deadweight contract.
On July 5th, Uggla stepped to the plate in Atlanta against the Rockies hitting an Adam Dunn-esque .173. In 5 seasons with the Florida Marlins before the trade to Atlanta, Uggla had never hit below .243 for a season. In the 2010 season he had a career high batting average of .287. And in the 86 games before the streak began Uggla had managed only 12 homers, he had never hit fewer than 27 as a Marlin, including 31 or more in the last 4 seasons. After the streak, Uggla has now belted a total of 27 homers, hitting 15 during the streak and raising his batting average for the season to .231.
This streak returned Uggla’s numbers to the same range of his career averages. Earlier in this post I mentioned Adam Dunn, the White Sox designated hitter (I would have described him as a slugger, but then this season happened) who is hitting .161 with 11 homers. He hasn’t hit fewer than 38 homers for the last 7 seasons and hasn’t hit below .234 in that same time period. So will he go on a titanic tear in the last 40 games of the season?
I will predict that Adam Dunn will NOT do anything of the sort, even though he is the same age as Uggla—31. That being said, it does not baffle me that Uggla brought his numbers closer to his career averages, back to the bell curve that is. The numbers that MLB players in particular put up are just that—averages. In a season that is so long, players go through ups and downs (although not usually as pronounced as Uggla) that lead to mathematically significant averages. It is much easier for an NFL player to have a season (16 games long) that is a statistical anomaly, but baseball players cannot hide for 162 games. Uggla has put up remarkably similar numbers for the 5 seasons he has completed in the majors, and every once in a while you see a guy have two completely different stories to his season to reach his averages like Uggla seems to have done.
Dan Uggla is a talented ball player who I believe will be able to string together some more seasons of solid offensive numbers that have come to be expected of him. He will not touch the 56 games that so many players have not found themselves in the realm of, but he will patrol second base for the Braves, and help keep them contending.
thebullpenblogger 