NFL Week 14 Handicapper

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)

 How do you find your way to complete irrelevance?  Just ask any team in the Cleveland area.  They have Peyton Hillis, who donned the cover of Madden 12, has only 321 yards this year, 3 more than Isaac Redman (the Steelers backup).  Colt McCoy played for a better team wearing orange in college than he is on right now.  And the best team that their leading receiver has ever played for was his college basketball team…that’s right, a completely different sport.

Pick:  Browns.

Houston at Cincinnati (-3)

 Anyone else shocked to hear that Marvin Lewis is the 3^rd longest tenured coach with one team in the NFL right now behind Andy Reid and Bill Belichick.  That’s like listing 3 Nobel Laureates, two of whom are straight genius and the other one stole his work from someone else and passed it off as his own.  In Lewis’ case though, he probably would have had one of his many criminal players steal the work for him.

Pick:  Bengals.

Minnesota at Detroit (-10)

 The Vikings got Tebow-ed—BOOM.  Really though, they shouldn’t be worried about that; instead, they should be worried that they really got Ponder-ed when he threw that late interception and put the Broncos in position to win.  It’s weird, Ponder-ing looks a lot like Favre-ing, and he isn’t even with the team anymore.

Pick:  Vikings (and to win).

New Orleans at Tennessee (+3.5)

 Drew Brees is on pace for his second 5,000 yard passing season, an unprecedented feat in the world of quarterbacks.  Matt Hasselbeck is on pace for his third straight season of starting at least 14 games, which is unprecedented for a completely bald old guy.

Pick:  Saints.

Philadelphia at Miami (-3)

 This matchup is actually pretty interesting as Philadelphia is bound to lose all of their “talent” to the Miami Dolphins in the offseason just like teams in other sports are losing their “talents” to South Beach.

Pick:  Eagles (and to win).

Kansas City at New York (A) (-10.5)

 The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 10 points in the last five games they have played.  In related news, Rex Ryan hasn’t had fewer than 10 chins in the last five years.

Pick:  Chiefs.

New England at Washington (+8)

 The Patriots are rolling to the playoffs on the arm of Tom Brady, the legs of BenJarvus “The Law Firm” Green-Ellis, and the hands of Wes Welker.  The Redskins are hurdling to the all too well known bottom of the division on the arm of Rex Grossman and John Beck, the legs of Roy Helu, and the hands of Fred Davis.  Well, when you put it that way, 4 wins might actually be the top for these guys.

Pick:  Patriots.

Atlanta at Carolina (+3)

 Julio Jones hasn’t quite been the player that the Falcons had wanted him to be when they drafted him, but a lot of it has been due to injuries.  Cam Newton hasn’t quite had the impact on the Panthers’ record that they had wanted when they drafted him, but a lot of it has been due to crappy teammates.

Pick:  Falcons

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (+3)

In the battle for Florida, all of the retirement communities will be buzzing with excitement.  In other news, Viagra has sent free samples to people in Florida trying to undermine their rival Cialis.  Let’s face it; no one really cares about this game at all.

Pick:  Bucs.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)

 Archie Manning started his attempt to protect his sons’ starting position in Indy as the Colts are looking at the top pick in the upcoming NFL draft and should take Andrew Luck.  You thought that those over-protective parents stopped when little league was over…FALSE.

Pick:  Ravens.

Chicago at Denver (-3)

 Tebow-ing would appear to be the complete opposite of Cutler-ing.  One tries harder than anyone else in the NLF, demands the best of his teammates, wins games by whatever means necessary, and endears fans across the country to him.  The other, well the other is Jay Cutler who is the epitome of…well, he’s Jay Cutler.

Pick:  Broncos.

San Francisco at Arizona (+3.5)

 San Francisco has clinched the NFC West already, which for them means a return to prominence and dominance.  For the Cardinals it means yet another year in irrelevance and the stark realization for their three fans that these games just don’t matter.

Pick:  49ers.

Oakland at Green Bay (-12)

 Carson Palmer has looked to be the best solution that any team has found in the multitude of QB injuries that have plagued the NFL so far this year.  And that is with weapons at receiver that would remain on the bench behind the receivers that Aaron Rodgers benefits from.

Pick:  Packers.

Buffalo at San Diego (-7)

 The only thing that could stop these two teams from hurdling to the bottom on losing streaks that would make the Lions cringe is playing each other.  Seriously, these two teams are crashing even worse then you thought a team coached by Norv Turner and the Bills would, which is bad.

Pick:  Bills.

New York (N) at Dallas (-4.5)

 This game will go a long way towards deciding which of these teams makes the playoffs.  So this game is both important and in December.  At least we know that Tony Romo won’t show up and will play about as well as the Eagles have all season long.

Pick:  Giants (and to win).

St. Louis and Seattle (-10)

 I think its clear to everyone that this game was slotted for Monday Night Football because the NFL was hoping that these two teams would once again be in a battle to win the division with a losing record.  As it turns out though, these two teams are just in a battle for absolutely nothing.  Seriously, these are the games that make you wonder how athletes stay excited about playing this crap game.

Pick:  Seahawks.

Why the NBA Is No Longer a League of Basketball Players

The nuclear winter is over before it began; there will be an NBA season beginning on Christmas Day.  Now, you might be expecting me, as a fan of everything encompassed in sport, to be rejoicing loudly over the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and the prospect of an NBA season.  This, however, is not my reaction.

As I have previously stated my displeasure with many of the rules and regulations that have been implemented (or have failed to be implemented) in Major League Baseball (MLB), I will so too point to some clear areas where the NBA needs to improve so that it can hold someone’s interest in the regular season.  Ready for the rants of a lover of “old-school”?

The first thing that the NBA has to do to keep the regular season intriguing is make it smaller—don’t reduce the number of games, reduce the number of teams.  How drastic a change?  Eight teams. Not a couple.  Eight.  Basketball is different from every other major sport in one extremely important regard; smaller teams and the nature of the game allow for star players, or even a single star player, to have a greater impact on a team’s success.  The top 10 quarterbacks in career passing yards have won a combined 5 Super Bowls, and one of them, Drew Bledsoe, didn’t play for his team when they won, instead he watched from the bench.  Excluding Babe Ruth, the other 9 of the top 10 baseball players in career homeruns have won a combined 6 World Series titles.  Wayne Gretzky, unquestionably the best hockey player of all time, did win 4 Stanley Cups, but played for 21 years.  And the other top 9 players in terms of goals scored won a combined 17 (including 5 by Mark Messier who won many of his with Gretzky).  The average career of the top 10 players in career NHL goals in the , is over 20 years; much longer than the average career length of the top NBA scorers.  How many NBA Championships have the top 10 scorers in NBA history won? 28.

The best hitter in MLB has eight teammates that bat in between his plate appearances.  The best pitcher can, at best, record half of the outs required to complete a game.  The best forwards in hockey are on the ice for about one third of the game.  The best football players play either offense or defense, not both.  The best basketball players, however, play about 40 minutes, or five sixths of the game—a much higher percentage than stars in other sports.

So how does contraction help the NBA?  By having more teams, there is a greater demand for players.  By expanding the number of players required to fill NBA rosters, there is a lower threshold of talent necessary to be on a roster.  This means that the star players, who already have more impact on games than other sports, are playing against teams that are devoid of comparable talent.

This is obvious at the center position.  Sports economists have quite accurately, described the problem as “a short supply of tall people.” (pun intended).  The number of people with supreme athletic ability, strength, endurance, and 7 feet of height is incredibly small.  By contracting the number of teams it forces star players to play against teams that, even though they may lack a single “star,” have a higher level of talent on their roster.  So goodbye Raptors, Bucks, Bobcats, Wizards, Timberwolves, Jazz, Warriors, and Grizzlies—it was fun while it lasted.

What else would help with the problem of star players playing a bloated role in the NBA?  A hard salary cap.  There is too much wiggle room for teams to find ways around the pathetic soft cap that now determines the level of team payrolls in the NBA.  Force teams to adequately supplement the top talent on their rosters with role-players they can afford.  Prevent clusters of talent finding their way to one team like we now find in Los Angeles, Miami, New York (soon to be more I am sure), Boston, and to lesser extents Chicago, Orlando, and San Antonio.

On a side note you will notice that I have left the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder off of that list.  That is because I believe that Mark Cuban has done an extremely good job at supplementing Dirk Nowitzki with a combination of savvy veterans and energetic youth.    The Thunder, have two huge pieces in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (who is still on his rookie contract), and they have built around them with complementary pieces such as:  Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, and Nazr Mohammed.

By instituting a hard cap, it forces teams to build…well, teams.  The success of well-built teams is falling to gaggles of friends (Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul, LeBron and D-Wade, e.g.) who make deals with each other off of the court, completely undermining the NBA.

Alright, so those two changes are, unfortunately for you, less old school than the ones that I am now going to argue for.

First, no more 10-foot basket, I am envisioning at least 12-feet.  The fact that guys can dunk with the same effort that they put into defense (which, if you didn’t understand, is effectively zero), is stupid.  Want me to get even crazier?

This change I endorse with less fervor than the others, but make dunks worth 1 point.  If people are fans of the game simply because these guys can throw down, go watch the Harlem Globetrotters or a pick-up game at the local YMCA.  This is basketball, not a show.

Speaking of basketball, if I remember correctly, it is a team sport.  The current 24-second shot clock that is utilized in the NBA does not allow for enough ball movement.  They should either go back to a 35-second clock, or do away with it all together.  Lets see some passes, not isolations over-and-over again.  Teamwork should be important in team sports, but basketball has done all it can to eliminate it from the equation completely.

Now you are probably thinking that I am a points-Grinch and that I want to see winning teams score 60 points.  Now that is just not true; I have another change that increases the importance of teamwork, but also increases scoring.

The dimensions of the court should be altered so that it is both longer and wider.  By making the court bigger and spreading the players out, defense becomes simultaneously harder and more important.  Increased movement away from the ball, because there is more space to maneuver in, allows for more intricate and a higher rate of passes.  On both ends of the ball, a bigger court means an increased premium on teamwork.

The size of players, both height and muscular build, have increased over the years, but the hoop-height and court size have not reflected these changes.

Really, all of the changes that I want to see instituted on the court (as opposed to the salary cap in the front office), are ones that increase the importance of the ability to shoot, pass, and play fundamental team defense; you know, basketball skills.  A bunch of athletic guys shouldn’t be enough anymore, it is making basketball a lower form of sport relative to the others.

The sport of basketball, as evidenced by the trouble in solidifying a new CBA, is facing some amount of trouble.  The watered down play that is now a mere spectacle is the underlying problem.  Lets face it, people don’t care about basketball as much as they used to, or even could.  Demand the changes of these so called “basketball players.”  Weed out the frauds.

NFL Week 13 Handicapper

Philadelphia at Seattle (+3)

Has there ever been another team to look as bad as the Eagles have after the amount of hype that surrounded the beginning of their season?  It’s like Philadelphia has become the Cleveland of Pennsylvania.  The only way that the Eagle’s playoff hope would be alive is if they were playing in the NFC of last year when everyone was the Cleveland of their respective states.

Pick:  Eagles

Tennessee at Buffalo (-1.5)

 Everyone has to be doing it now.  Making the connection that Stevie Johnson is the LeBron James of football.  They both did the mock Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the leg routine after scoring touchdowns this past week (LeBron in a flag football game), and neither one can score in the fourth quarter to help their teams win.

Pick:  Bills

Kansas City at Chicago (-7)

 These are just two of the teams to get hit hard by the quarterback injuries that seem to be running rampant through the league.  You can tell that teams are getting desperate when they are fighting over Kyle Orton; including the Bears who are fighting to have Orton back for a second go around.  But you can’t blame the Chiefs.  I mean seriously did you see Tyler Palko trying to throw the football?  He looked like a blind guy…with a terrible arm.

Pick:  Bears

Oakland at Miami (-3)

 Could the Raiders really be in the driver seat of the AFC West?  Who says it’s a passing league when you can win your division and have your best player be your kicker?  Seriously, Sebastian Janikowski is the best player on that roster.

Pick:  Raiders (and to win)

Denver at Minnesota (-1.5)

 Can you really call it another great 4^th quarter comeback for Tim Tebow if it comes against the Vikings who give them up more often than Tebow prays?  It would be more impressive if the Broncos could play this entire game while leading.

Pick:  Broncos (and to win)

Indianapolis at New England (-20)

 I know the Colts’ problem.  They have Dan Orlovsky starting at quarterback.  The last time Orlovsky started in the NFL?  When he was on the Lions team that went 0-16.  Usually this would be the flex game that NBC chooses to air on Sunday Night Football. Instead they chose to stay further away from this game than girls do when they see Curtis Painter without a helmet on.

Pick:  Colts

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

 Has there been a better rookie combination than Andy Dalton and AJ Green?  Seriously they are tearing it up like a couple of college kids getting benefits from boosters still.  Didn’t anyone tell them school is over, they are in the real world now, and they need to earn their own money?

Pick:  Bengals

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)

 LaGarrette Blount has quickly become one of the best running backs in the league.  I think he is a better running back than Cam Newton, even.  The difference?  At least Blount helps his team win games with the numbers he puts up.

Pick:  Bucs

New York (A) at Washington (+3)

 Sione Pouha, the defensive tackle for the Jets, showed that the Jets are in the denial stage of their crappiness.  After he pretended to shoot himself in the leg, Stevie Johnson put his arms out and “flew” around the endzone like a jet—he then fell to the turf.  Pouha said that this celebration, based on the events of 9/11, was insensitive especially since his team is from New York. Two points:

1. I think he did it as a dig to the “Jets” falling to earth and realizing that they are not as good as their bloated coach has made their bloated egos to believe.
2. The Bills ACTUALLY play their home games in New York.  The Jets play in NEW JERSEY, Pouha, NOT New York.

Pick:  Jets

Atlanta at Houston (+2.5)

 The Houston Texans had it made.  This was their year.  Peyton Manning had to sit, the Colts were vulnerable, they could win the AFC South.  Now they have to start TJ Yates at quarterback.  The good news for them the list of starting quarterbacks in the AFC South this week looks like a list of Bears-level talent at quarterback over the last 10 years:  Yates, Dan Orlovsky, Blaine Gabbard, and an ancient Matt Hasselbeck (who will probably see Jake Locker take some snaps from him).

Pick:  Atlanta

Baltimore at Cleveland (+6.5)

 This is just the type of game that the Ravens would lose the week after beating the 49ers, owners of the second best record in the NFL.  Joe Flacco and company are more inconsistent than the play of those who have donned the cover of “Madden” games…you finally know what I am talking about Cleveland since you had a player good enough for the cover for the first time ever.

Pick:  Browns

Green Bay at New York (N) (+6.5)

 The Giants are no strangers to beating teams with unblemished records.  They are also no strangers to looking like crap at key moments like this one, which would go a long way to keeping their playoff hope alive.  But at least they have those cool gladiator-looking facemasks for some of their defensive linemen.

Pick:  Packers

Dallas at Arizona (+4.5)

 How awesome is it that Arizona Cardinals fans (they are like the Yeti, you hear of sightings, but you are pretty sure they don’t exist) have tasted playoff success more recently than Cowboys fans (they are like Yankees fans, they sold their sold to the Devil to be front-runners with everyone else)?  Truly awesome.

Pick:  Cowboys

St. Louis at San Francisco (-13)

 The 49ers have the second best record in the NFL, but they play in the NFC West.  They are like the Harlem Globetrotters just going around to different towns schooling teams that are worse than most high school and college teams in their respective states.

Pick:  49ers

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)

 Its really nice to see that two cities that have suffered as mightily as New Orleans and Detroit have to contending teams like the Saints and Lions.  Its similarly depressing that they are trailing a team from a town that is, well—a town.  They could fit the entire population in Cowboys stadium and they have a good team that all 100 people can enjoy.

Pick:  Lions (and to win)

San Diego at Jacksonville (+3)

 The Chargers are officially in free fall mode.  They have actually been in that mode for that past 7 seasons, but they played in such a terrible division before that it was masked as being a contender.  The Jaguars finally fired their crappy coach, their division has been so good in the past that his work was “doing the best with the talent he had,” but now it has been exposed as just plain terrible.

Pick:  Chargers

The Other Free Agents: Beltran and Ramirez

This season’s free agent class in baseball boasts some of the game’s biggest stars. The last two World Series, however, have been won in large part due to the contributions of players who do not fit the description of the “big star” category.

Outside of Tim Lincecum, the 2010 champion San Francisco Giants team was constructed entirely of players outside the top echelon of talent. The 2011 St. Louis Cardinals boasted Albert Pujols (one of the free agents that makes this years class so top heavy) and Chris Carpenter, two of the best at their respective positions. It was the contributions of two players who have never appeared in 100 games in a regular season, Allen Craig and David Freese, however, that were the key to a Series victory over a Texas Rangers team that boasts more of those “big star” names.

This offseason will be full of talk about where Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, and even Mark Buehrle will land. Jim Bowden, of ESPN, has listed 5 of these 6 (Darvish not included because he is coming from Japan) as the 5 free agents who will, not shockingly, make the most money in their new contracts. The players that Bowden has listed at 6 and 7, respectively, however, jumped out to me as players that carry with them “big star” names, but will have to play contributor roles and could have serious impacts in these roles. What also jumped out to me is that these players, according to Bowden’s estimations, will command nearly identical contract numbers. These two players are: Carlos Beltran and Aramis Ramirez.

So which of these two players is worth the 3-year $40-$45 million contract that they will receiver in the now bloated free agent market of baseball? Also which other available players might be able to be had at these positions that could serve as acceptable replacements?

Carlos Beltran, who was brought in by the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline to try and help the crew of misfits repeat as World Series champions, will turn 35 less than a month into the upcoming season. How did he do as a 34 year-old? For the first time in 3 seasons, Beltran appeared in more than 50% of the regular season games, appearing in a total of 142 between the Mets and Giants. For just the second time in the last 8 seasons, his batting average (BA) hit the .300 mark, batting .300 exactly. His .385 on-base percentage (OBP) and his .910 on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage were his second highest totals over the last 5 seasons. In short, Beltran looked rejuvenated after two injury-shortened seasons.

Pitfalls? Obviously. Bill James, the now famous baseball statistician, developed a series of equations that allows players throughout history to be compared on a purely statistical basis. So who can Carlos Beltran most closely be compared to? Fred Lynn.

How did Fred Lynn fare as a 34 year-old? Lynn’s 23 homeruns were 1 more than the 22 dingers that Beltran hit this past year. Lynn, as a 34 year-old, posted his second highest totals in BA, OBP, and OPS over his last 5 years. Fred Lynn’s next three seasons, the expected length of Beltran’s contract? His offensive-WAR rating over the next three seasons combined would be only .4 higher than his 3.4 rating as a 34 year-old. The closest he would get to the .287 he posted as a 34 year-old—.253. His .371 OBP—.328. And his .869 OPS—.807. There is hope, however.

Carlos Beltran’s most recent year had the highest similarity score with the 34 year-old Andre Dawson. In fact, Beltran’s years between the ages of 26 and 30 were most similar to those same years of Dawson. Dawson’s production following such a similar season as a 34 year-old? His WAR rating would be higher than his 2.0 rating as a 34 year-old each of the next three seasons. Dawson’s homerun totals were also higher as a 35, 36, and 37 year-old. His BA, OBP, and OPS were higher 2 of the next 3 seasons. So is Beltran destined for a Fred Lynn-esque decline, or an Andre Dawson-like resurgence? This is the question GMs across the league will have to ask themselves.

This brings us to Aramis Ramirez—the 33-year old third baseman for the Cubs. Ramirez, who will turn 34 before the halfway point of the season, had a strong season last year relative to his career, but extraordinarily mediocre season compared to his last 5. His .306 batting average, 93 RBIs, and 3.6 WAR rating were his third highest totals over his past five years. A couple of things, however, stand out about this year. His 149 games played are tied for his highest total over the past five seasons, and his OPS+ (an on-base plus slugging percentage that is adjusted for a given player’s home ballpark) of 136 was the second highest total of his career—behind the 138 he posted in 2004 as a 26-year old. So will his mediocre season trend to a resurgence or decline, or is it a sign of a production-plateau that he now calls home.

Turning to the similarity scores that we used in evaluating Carlos Beltran’s potential future value, we find that Ramirez’s career has, statistically, most closely mirrored the career of Vinny Castilla. As a 33-year old Vinny Castilla slugged 25 homers (1 fewer than Ramirez’s total this past season), but hit only .260, with a .308 OBP, and a .775 OPS. His next three seasons were a rollercoaster ride. As a 34-year old, his BA dropped to .232, his OBP to .268, his OPS to .616, and he hit only 12 homeruns. All of this was good for a WAR rating of -1.0. He would, however, post a combined 5.4 WAR rating over his next two seasons, including a 3.4 rating (the second highest total of his career) as a 36-year old. He would hit a combined 57 homeruns in those two seasons, his batting average would remain over .270, his OBP over .310, and he would post OPSs of .771 and .867.

While Vinny Castilla is an interesting and seemingly apt comparison to Aramis Ramirez, there is another player who has had either the highest or second highest similarity score to the age specific production of Ramirez since he was 28, that is more intriguing in my mind as a comparison—Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen would only play until he was 36, which is the same age Ramirez would be at the end of a 3-year contract.

As a 33-year old, Scott Rolen posted a 3.8 WAR rating after hitting .262, posting an OBP of .349, and having an OPS of .780. His 3.8 WAR rating was slightly higher than the 3.6 posted by Ramirez this past season, but also hugely misleading. Ramirez’s offensive WAR this past year was 4.5, and he had a negative defensive WAR. Rolen, however, had a 1.7 defensive WAR rating which means his offensive WAR rating was a mere 2.1 as a 33-year old. So why do I like this comparison? Because it is clear that Ramirez could be valuable to an AL team as a designated hitter and backup third baseman. The careers of both Castilla and Rolen, two hitters who are statistically similar to Ramirez, show that for as many as 3 more years, Ramirez could be extremely productive at the plate. The career of Ramirez, as he has had only 1 season in the past 10 of a positive defensive WAR rating, however, shows that he will most likely not be extremely valuable at the hot corner.

So which one of these two free agents will be more valuable to teams over the next 3 seasons? I think that the answer, although not by much, is Carlos Beltran. Ramirez has been a mercurial hitter, and has been a part of a dysfunctional clubhouse in Chocago for so many years now that he does not have much leadership to add as a veteran. Beltran is more valuable as a fielder and has a proven track record of success in the post-season.

These two players will obviously go to teams that wish to contend in the present. And both players could be valuable as designated hitters, a role that neither one has played extensively. The most intriguing replacement options for the teams that miss out on these big-name free agents come from Japan and Cuba. Players such as Yoennis Cespedes, Jorge Soler, Henry Urrutia, Norichika Aoki, and Hiroyuki Nakajima will be signed with less recognition than Beltran and Ramirez, but could have just has significant contributions for 3 years or even more. I think that they are both overpriced, but they will have no problem finding roster spots. There is one big difference, however, I think that Beltran will return to San Francisco and I think that there is not a chance that Ramirez returns to Chicago.

NFL Week 11 Handicapper

New York (A) at Denver (+6)

Is it just me, or should the Jets watch film and this game really closely. Triple option with Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Mark Sanchez, don’t let him throw another pass EVER. Improvement. Even better improvement, include Joe McKnight in the triple option and do away with Mark “I Am Single Handedly Holding Back This Sanchise” Sanchez completely. Uber-Improvement.
Pick: Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)

Isn’t it clear now why the Bucs brought in Albert Haynesworth? They figured that the only way to beat Aaron Rodgers was to poison him with a disgusting lack of work ethic that leads to a precipitous decline in skill that was at the heart of a promising, fledgling career, thus prompting your teammates and coaches to hate you. Here’s to hoping it works.
Pick: Packers.

Carolina at Detroit (-7)

Who else is waiting for another Cadillac ad that talks about wanting to rejuvenate Detroit with Matt Stafford driving? He then gets out of the car and as soon as he does he injures himself tripping over his defense that is lying down and then his car transforms into Calvin Johnson (a robot) who flies away.
Pick: Lions.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)

Thank goodness the fans in Cleveland clamored to back a “professional” football team back into their “great” city. Seriously, this game is going to be so bad the people of Cleveland are counting down the days until pitchers and catchers report.
Pick: Jaguars (and to win).

Oakland at Minnesota (+1)

Carson Palmer finally threw fewer than 3 interceptions as a Raider last week, leading them to a victory over the Chargers. Raiders fans are now clamoring for the return of Kyle Boller because they include interceptions into a quarterbacks completion percentage in the hopes that they can make them appear better than the crap that they really are.
Pick: Vikings (and to win).

Buffalo at Miami (-2)

The only thing that can confirm a complete fall into insignificance following a demolition at the hands of the Cowboys, is a loss to the Matt Moore-led Dolphins. See the Redskins and Chiefs from the previous two weeks. The Bills are well on their way to that place they know all too well.
Pick: Bills (and to win).

Dallas at Washington (+7.5)

John Beck or Rex Grossman? Rex Grossman or John Beck? That’s like choosing between cheering for the Cowboys and the Redskins. You hate both, and you know that they both stink anyways, so why bother even choosing when you could just watch better football by going to the local high school, which is ironically where Rex Grossman used to get stuffed into lockers.
Pick: Cowboys.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

The Bengals haven’t defeated a good team, and the Ravens haven’t beaten a bad team. So who wins this battle? No one because a ginger and a devolved idiot lead these two teams, and yet they are at the top of the AFC playoff list over the likes of people who have intelligence like Ryan Fitzpatrick. Score one for the morons.
Pick: Ravens.

Seattle at St. Louis (-2)

You know what’s shocking? The fact that these two teams are not vying for a playoff spot like they were last year atop the NFC West, does not make this game less interesting at all. It is still mind numbingly boring seeing as how the Seahawks team MVP goes to Steven Hauschka and the St. Louis team MVP is…wow, literally no one.
Pick: Seattle (and to win).

Arizona at San Francisco (-9.5)

The 49ers are officially for real. They have been for several weeks now, but their 8-1 record puts them two games clear in second place in the NFL. The Cardinals are officially a below average team. They have been for several weeks now, but their victory over the Eagles proved that.
Pick: 49ers.

Tennessee at Atlanta (-6)

Shouldn’t Matt Hasselbeck be in the MVP consideration seeing as how he has the Titans sitting at 5-4 with Chris Johnson looking as bad as his back up Javon Ringer, and receivers that wouldn’t be able to get open against the Patriots secondary. Even Peyton Manning couldn’t pull that off.
Pick: Titans.

San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)

Two teams moving in different directions; the Chargers, who started fast, look like they wouldn’t be able to beat Stanford, and the Bears look like they can’t be stopped. And who would have ever thought that the team with Jay Cutler would be the one moving in the right direction?
Pick: Chargers (and to win).

Philadelphia at New York (N) (-4)

Michael Vick has two cracked ribs, DeSean Jackson got benched “for missing a team meeting” (but everyone knows its for something else as well), and their 3-6 record puts them as close to the playoffs as the Cardinals, Seahawks, Jaguars, Browns, and Redskins. I don’t know what kind of dreams Vince Young has, but it may explain why his psyche shattered enough to not even allow him to be an NFL quarterback anymore. Come on Vince, anyone can do that, just ask John Skelton (who beat the lowly Eagles).
Pick: Giants.

Kansas City at New England (-15)

With Matt Cassell going down to injury, the New England Patriots 2.0 must turn to Tyler Palko to lead their anemic offense. Romeo Crennel believes that he can be like Tom Brady and come in to help this team make a late season run to and then through the playoffs. It was then discovered that Romeo Crennel was suffering from concussion symptoms that he suffered while fighting for the front of the buffet line with Charlie Weis.
Pick: Chiefs.

Dan Duquette’s Legacy: A Red Sox Fan’s Retrospective

“I am not going to go into the past.” This single quote by Mark McGwire has become indicative of the now fleeting steroid era. McGwire’s contention, however, has not prevented writers and fans alike, from attaching steroid use or even existence in the steroid era, as black spots to the legacies of numerous players.

With the announcement that the Baltimore Orioles have hired Dan Duquette, the former Boston Red Sox general manager, as their general manager, I wonder if it is time to reevaluate the legacy of Duquette in Boston.

One of moves that looms largest in the minds of Boston fans, attached to the legacy of Dan Duquette, was unquestionably the decision to let a Boston icon and legend, Roger Clemens, leave the team via free agency. Now many of you see where I am going with my train of thought here, but the question remains, what role did steroids indirectly play in the legacy of Dan Duquette?

Roger Clemens was 34 at the beginning of his first season outside of Boston. At this age, a swift precipitous decline is not out of the minds of coaches and GMs. Clemens, however, was not destined for such a drop in production, instead he would accumulate a combined 53.6 wins above replacement player (WAR) rating and 162 total wins over 11 more seasons in the MLB, and earn 4 more Cy Young awards (to go along with the 3 he won in Boston). In short, Clemens could have been an ace at the top of the Red Sox rotation, and helped the team to many more victories (especially since he did most of his pitching damage in Toronto and as a Yankee, division rivals of the Red Sox, after leaving) for many more years, had Duquette resigned him following the ’96 season.

As news outlets across America have made you acutely aware, however, Roger Clemens has found himself mired in one of the bitterest battles of alleged steroid use. Would Duquette’s decision look as bad as it does if Clemens’ arm had tired or slowed down after the more than 498 innings that he threw in two seasons as a Blue Jay? Steroids, if he did use them (and let’s face it, I am not the only one who thinks he is as guilty as it gets), it would not be a stretch to say, may have had a substantially positive effect on his performance late in his career.

So what about Duquette’s other moves as GM in Boston? It was Duquette who brought in Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek in one of the great heists in recent baseball trades; for those of you who don’t know, the Seattle Mariners traded Lowe and Varitek to Boston for the likes of Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb would pitch a grand total of 98 innings as a Mariner, have an ERA of 4.97, a 2-9 record, and 13 saves in 84 appearances. It was Duquette who traded Carl Pavano (one of his draft picks) and Tony Armas to the Expos for Pedro Martinez, the same Martinez who would amass 117 wins, post a 2.52 ERA, earn a 47.6 WAR rating, and win two Cy Young awards in seven seasons in Boston. Ironically this was the second time that Duquette had, for all intents and purposes, stolen Martinez as a GM. He had brought him to Montreal from the Dodgers for Delino DeShields.

His free agent signings: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Tim Wakefield, Hanley Ramirez, Jamie Moyer, and Anibal Sanchez. Ramirez, Damon, and Wakefield are some of the most successful Red Sox players certainly of the era, but were also a part of the 2004 team that won the World Series. There is no doubt that Duquette made a mistake in trading Moyer away for Darren Bragg, but he recognized the pitcher’s talent. Ramirez and Sanchez never played for the Red Sox, but were the centerpieces of an Epstein trade with the Marlins that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.

Some of the best decisions are based in inaction. Duquette decided not to resign, then alienated, Mo Vaughn. Instead the slugger signed a 6-year $80 million contract, at the time the largest in baseball, with the Anaheim Angels. He would only play 4 of those 6 seasons in the Majors, and only 2 of them with the Angels. In his first year with the Angels, his average would drop from .337 to .281, his on-base percentage (OBP) from .402 to .358, and his slugging percentage (SLG) from .591 to .508.

All of this being said, Duquette did have some obvious shortcomings. While he was the one who drafted Nomar Garciaparra, Carl Pavano, Kevin Youkilis, Adam Everett, David Eckstein, Justin Duchscherer, and Shea Hillenbrand, those were the cream of an eight-year crop. He passed on players such as Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Chase Utley. Most of his top picks busted. He could have done better in the drafts, but there also seemed to be some pressure in Boston that directed some of his picks.

Dan Duquette, like all GMs, is not without his share of mistakes in retrospect. With the record that he does have, however, I am shocked that it took a team 9 years to give him another chance at building a team. Baltimore may have been the perfect fit for him. He does not spend money on many foolish endeavors. Drafting knowledge and tools are greatly improved, where he did have some hits. It is clear that he is skilled at evaluating talent, and being in an environment a little less stressful than pre-2004 Boston will mean that Duquette may be able to improve upon the people skills that alienated so many in the Boston clubhouse and media.

Duquette will have to take some more risks, something he did not do too much of in Boston, because there is no other way for a team that is stuck in a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and even the Tampa Bay Rays now, to compete. One things for sure though, the Orioles have a man at the helm who has a legacy, and unlike so many players, has a chance to build a new one in Camden Yards.

NFL Week 10 Handicapper

Oakland at San Diego (-7)

Philip Rivers is torn because he has seen two quarterbacks leave San Diego and go on to teams that have won the Super Bowl: Drew Brees and Eli Manning (although Manning never played a down as a Charger). Then he realized that if he asked to get out he may end up quarterbacking a team like the Raiders who have about as a good chance to win the Super Bowl as JaMarcus Russell does of starting another game anywhere as a QB.
Pick: Chargers.

New Orleans at Atlanta (Pick)

Julio Jones, the wide receiver from Alabama who the Falcons got a high cost, grabbed his first two touchdowns of the season last week. When asked about the receiver finally finding the endzone, his college coach Nick Saban said, “I am proud of him, he is taking to NFL coaching because he clearly didn’t learn scoring touchdowns while he was playing here at Alabama. We just like to try and kick field goals because it is called ‘football’ not ‘catchball.’”
Pick: Saints.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3)

Andy Dalton, the rookie signal caller for the Bengals, has quietly led his team to a 6-2 record. The Bengals have started to shop Andy Dalton to some of the worst teams in the NFL because they have such a large scouting department for high draft picks that they don’t want to mess with their business model because they feel that it has served them well.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis at Cleveland (-2.5)

Remember when Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy were facing off in the National Championship game just a few years ago? I feel better now, at least my life is uphill after leaving college, these two have been doomed to playing for NFL teams that look worse than Madden fans for choosing to put Peyton Hillis on the cover this year.
Pick: Browns

Buffalo at Dallas (-5.5)

Jerry Jones compared DeMarco Murray to Eric Dickerson. Really? Now the guy running the team looks as dumb as the guy running the offense from the pocket. Ryan Fitzpatrick has more brains in his beard than those two combined.
Pick: Bills

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3)

Sources have confirmed that Peyton Manning’s neck injury is the direct result of carrying an entire NFL team on his back. Curtis Painter’s neck has also been confirmed to be in completely perfect health despite carrying that awful head of hair.
Pick: Jaguars

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

The Chiefs were responsible for the Miami Dolphins finally finding the win column. Tim Tebow was responsible for human kind finding salvation, the Chiefs were not included on this list of people who were led to salvation because they let the Dolphins find the win column.
Pick: Broncos (and to win)

Washington at Miami (-4)

The Redskins’ coaching staff found some sense of vindication when not even Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots could turn Albert Haynesworth’s attitude and play around. The Dolphins’ coaching staff found themselves atop the list for end of the year awards because they won a game with Matt Moore as the quarterback and a defense that would make Donovan McNabb look like an All-Pro.
Pick: Redskins (and to win)

Arizona at Philadelphia (-13.5)

Andy Reid has largely escaped criticism for his team’s horrendous start despite the fact that his defense, led by a former offensive line coach, looks so bad that the Cardinals are confident in starting John Skelton. It would appear that criticism is actually the only thing that Andy Reid has been able to outrun in his entire life.
Pick: Cardinals

Houston at Tampa Bay (+3)

The Buccaneers claimed Albert Haynesworth off of waivers from the New England Patriots. In other news, authorities have warned Tampa residents to keep their children inside at night for fear that Haynesworth might eat them.
Pick: Bucs (and to win)

Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)

What are the chances Cam Newton avoids the path of Vince Young and mentally collapses and finds himself in NFL obscurity? About as good as Chris Johnson getting to the 2,500 yard-mark that he thought he could reach.
Pick: Panthers

Baltimore at Seattle (+6.5)

When asked if he had confidence that Joe Flacco was going to lead them to victory last week, Ray Lewis said, “Absoutely. I told him that if he didn’t I was going to kill him.”
Pick: Ravens

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

The Bears pulled off a victory that surprised the football world when they defeated the Eagles. The Lions pulled off a victory that surprised the football world also, its called every single win that they get.
Pick: Lions (and to win)

New York (N) at San Francisco (-3.5)

When asked how he was going to celebrate their victory over the Patriots, Eli Manning said, “I will be celebrating with the ‘Sghetti man in San Francisco.” Reporters took this to mean that Eli Manning was going to have Chef Boyardee for dinner once he got to San Francisco; this translation came from a reporter’s 5 year-old son.
Pick: 49ers

New England at New York (A) (-1.5)

When asked what it’s like on “Revis Island,” Chad Ochocinco responded, “It makes you feel like Albert Haynesworth—completely useless.” And in other news, Antonio Cromartie asked Darrell Revis if he could drop some of his kids off on Revis Island so that he could stop paying child support.
Pick: Patriots (and to win)

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13.5)

How bad is Christian Ponder? He won’t even be able to complete a pass to the Packers’ defense like Philip Rivers did. This rivalry has gotten as out of control as Bernard Berrian had gotten, too bad the Vikings can’t just cut the Packers from their schedule.
Pick: Vikings

NFL Week 9 Handicapper

So after travel and then this freak October storm that demolished the Northeast and has forced me (and so many others in CT) to bounce around in search of internet that is working in the present, I was able to get my picks done. Hopefully the internet lasts long enough for me to publish this post.

New York (A) at Buffalo (-2.5)

Last week, the resurgent Bills were responsible for handing Mike Shanahan his first shutout defeat ever as a head coach. Hopefully those same resurgent Bills will be able to hand Jet-hating America the Jets first defeat in which Rex Ryan shuts up and doesn’t make a mockery of being a head coach in the NFL.
Pick: Jets (and to win)

Seattle at Dallas (-11)

Another strike against “America’s Team,” last week they allowed a team that boasted themselves to be the best coming into the season but looked as good as Andre Smith did running the 40-yard dash demolish them. I am serious we should start the “Occupy Cowboys Stadium” movement and officially have the “America’s Team” title removed from this abomination of a football team. Alright, maybe that’s not necessary, but seriously has there ever been a team that has deserved the title less?
Pick: Seahawks (and to clarify any confusion, I am picking the Texans to win, but not cover the spread).

Atlanta at Indianapolis (+6.5)

The Colts’ playoff hopes this year without Peyton Manning may be the only thing that lasted for a shorter time than Kris Humphries’ marriage to whichever Kardashian it was he married. With Robert Mathis stating that he doesn’t want to “Suck for Luck,” our suspicions have been confirmed that Robert Mathis just sucks. But don’t feel bad Mathis, clearly the rest of your teammates also suck regardless of the presence of a goofy looking college quarterback.
Pick: Falcons.

Miami at Kansas City (-5)

The Chiefs could win their 5th game in a row! Too bad no one will give them credit for being good because they have beaten the Colts, the McNabb led Vikings, and now the winless Dolphins would mark their 5th victory in a row. The Chiefs would get more credit for having a 5 game winning streak in the Canadian Football League. And they just run into goal posts.
Pick: Chiefs.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-8.5)

The Saints followed up a rout of the Colts with a loss at the hands of the Rams…quarterbacked by AJ Feely. That’s like beating up a little kid, only to have his slightly older sister come and pound on you.
Pick: Saints.

San Francisco at Washington (+5)

How bad has John Beck played? People in Washington are clamoring for Rex Grossman to come back as their quarterback. Pretty soon they will be asking Donovan McNabb to return. Alright, that is ridiculous. But the Washington Nationals have contacted McNabb about being the guy who throws groundballs to their infielders during spring training because he is really good at it.
Pick: 49ers.

Cleveland at Houston (-10.5)

The Texans have been able to survive without their star wide receiver Andre Johnson for the last few weeks. The Browns have been able to survive without a star for the past few decades…well actually they haven’t, there was that whole thing where they moved to Baltimore and then magically reappeared.
Pick: Browns.

New York (N) at New England (-9.5)

Eli Manning did his best Plaxico Burress impression and shot himself in the foot this off-season when he claimed to be at a similar quarterbacking level to Tom Brady. How bad is Eli? His brother hasn’t taken a snap all year long and he is still getting more press for being a great quarterback than Eli is.
Pick: Patriots.

Bonus Over/Under: How many times will David Tyree, from whatever couch he finds himself sitting in, be able to relive the high point (and only highlight) of his life this week (a.k.a. how many times will we see the “Helmet Grab” in Sunday coverage)? Over/Under: 3. Over

Double Bonus Over/Under: How many boobs will Julian Edelman grope during the game? Over/Under: 3. Over

Denver at Oakland (-7)

Alright which quarterback experiment will blow up worse this weekend: Carson Palmer or Tim Tebow? Hue Jackson called the Carson Palmer trade one of the best trades in NFL history, right up there with the Herschel Walker trade that doomed the Vikings organization for years.
Pick: Broncos (and to win).

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-2.5)

Has there been a bigger who cares game between two teams that are actually in contention…since the first 5 games of the World Series that is? Who wants to watch Carrot Top vs. some octogenarian? Tennessee fan would rather watch news reports about the unlikely event that their Grizzlies will be playing this season.
Pick: Bengals (and to win).

St. Louis at Arizona (-2.5)

The Cardinals may find themselves in a foot race to Los Angeles with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings. Could you imagine the St. Louis Rams playing the Los Angeles Cardinals? It would be mass confusion for old people trying to figure out what the hell happened to the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams, they won’t even know what sport they are watching. Once the game starts, they won’t have an better idea since what these teams do each week can hardly be called playing football.
Pick: Cardinals.

Green Bay at San Diego (+5.5)

Aaron Rodgers will make a return to California, where he played college football at Cal. Packers fans are worried that he will never want to return to Wisconsin when he realizes what a dump Green Bay is compared to California. It’s like trying to convince Chargers fans that Ryan Matthews is just as good as LaDainian Tomlinson was and that we can still win with this offense led by a quarterback who looks more and more like Tony Romo every week.
Pick: Packers.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Remember in Week 1 when the Ravens beat the Steelers 35-7 and everyone was wondering if it was the beginning of the end for this Steelers team? Well 8 weeks later, some victories for the Steelers, and Joe Flacco apparently watching too many Kyle Boller videos now have the Steelers favored to beat the Ravens.
Pick: Steelers.

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7.5)

Some analysts have said that Terrell Owens would make a great fit in Chicago because Jay Cutler wouldn’t take any of his antics seriously or let him highjack his huddle. Anyone else want the Bears to sign Owens just to see those two get into a fight and then have Brian Urlacher come in and beat up both of these idiots? I know I do, more than I even want to see LeSean McCoy give Andy Reid another titty-twister.
Pick: Eagles.

Week 7 Handicapper

So after an unbearably long hiatus from making my picks and inundating you with the not funny jokes that I blame entirely on the genes that my father has handed to me, I return in this pivotal week 7. I have been gone so long with my cousin’s wedding and my Italian roommate being in the USA that I am looking to get kicked out in the second quarter.

Seattle at Cleveland (-3)

The best thing that Cleveland sports has had in the last year is the fact that Peyton Hillis was featured on the cover of Madden 2012. How did that work out? The Madden Curse strikes again. Or was it the Cleveland Curse? The new best thing to happen in Cleveland sports, the Cavaliers season won’t start on time so residents won’t have watch that horror show.
Pick: Browns

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5)

Jim Schwartz has never been so fired up as he was after the botched handshake with Jim Harbaugh. Schwartz fired up still looks like a comatose blind guy. Funny, up until this year, that is what the entire Detroit Lions depth chart looked like on the field.
Pick: Lions

Houston at Tennessee (-3)

The Houston Texans have two running backs that have out gained Chris Johnson on the ground by 55 and 112 yards. It’s alright though, the Titans are paying him more than 3 times as much money as those two running backs combined. Good thing they are interested in Terrell Owens. Then they could have two overpaid players who could ruin the clubhouse. Advice for the Titans: The Bengals’ business model did not work out.
Pick: Titans

Denver at Miami (-1)

The man under center for the Dolphins was so bad the Panthers turned him on. The Romans turned on the man under center for the Broncos because he was also God. For once, the Miami Dolphins might have a game that is not blacked out because loads of people have to make the pilgrimage to Miami to save their souls.
Pick: Broncos (and to win)

San Diego at New York (A) (+2)

Norv Turner and Rex Ryan are two stereotypical kids in a grade school class. Turner is the weird, whiny kid that no one wants to be friends with; Ryan, the fat kid who bullies because he actually is not good at anything, but fakes it really well. Anyone else want to see Jim Harbaugh, the well groomed, jock who is great at everything give these guys more than a firm handshake? Shut up Rex, you haven’t won anything or made good on any of your predictions.
Pick: Jets (and to win)

Chicago at Tampa Bay (+1)

People of London, you have before you one of the most boring games to watch. Why is it that we always give them the worst games? I guess its pay back for them sending us their washed up soccer stars. Suckers, now you get Jay Cutler. America wins again.
Pick: Bucs

Washington at Carolina (-2.5)

Before last week the Redskins were riding high and nothing could touch this team headed for the top of the division. Four interceptions later, John Beck is now the starter and the Eagles are once again winners and darlings in the eyes of experts everywhere. Damn, that means Cam Newton needed on more interception last week to be the screw up everyone was waiting for. The Public’s opinion changes faster than Dan Snyder spends money.
Pick: Redskins (and to win)

Kansas City at Oakland (-6)

Carson Palmer is once again in the role of starting quarterback. Pretty soon his counterpart in Kansas City, Matt Cassel, will be back to his role as a backup to Tyler Palko. Its like college all over again for USC quarterbacks. Next thing you know Matt Leinart will be a celebrity and a top quarterback, hanging with other top-level celebrities. Alright, that last one was pretty ridiculous, but the first two are true. Weird.
Pick: Chiefs

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+4)

How many times have you heard Kevin Kolb’s name called this year? About as many times as you have heard from the women in Roethlisberger’s trials, only there isn’t any hush money when it comes to Kevin Kolb. Maybe he should start demanding some.
Pick: Steelers

St. Louis at Dallas (-13)

Tony Romo or Tony Oh-No. Who plays this week? In the end it doesn’t matter because Tony Oh-Who-Cares-You-Play-For-The-Cowboys-And-Act-Like-A-Jerk-So-No-One-Will-Ever-Like-You-And-You-And-The-Team-Around-You-Aren’t-Good-Enough-To-Win-A-Super-Bowl-But-People-Talk-Like-You-Are will be playing so America will love to hate the Cowboys. Who needs a “Big Three” to hate when you can just hate Tony Romo times three.
Pick: Rams

Green Bay at Minnesota (+9)

So ends the Donovan McNabb experiment in Minnesota. Really? You mean a fat, out-of-shape, inaccurate quarterback who made a living on extending the play didn’t work out for a team with a less than spectacular receiving corps. Who saw that coming? Our old friend, the tacky, television theologian Christian Ponder did. Now he will fail which everyone saw coming.
Pick: Vikings

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14)

Curtis Painter is the Pete Myers of football. Who is Pete Myers you ask? He became the starting shooting guard for the Chicago Bulls when Michael Jordan decided to retire for a baseball career. The point is, that the Colts are terrible and it is all this guy’s fault.
Pick: Colts

Baltimore at Jacksonville (+8)

The Jaguars could be the least interesting team in the NFL. Seriously, even the Ravens don’t have any desire to murder any of the guys on the team because there would be no reason too. They should be the team to sign Terrell Owens, because there is no clubhouse character to destroy.
Pick: Ravens

Rodgers vs. Brady Race to a Record: Clearly Not a Foot Race

50 touchdown passes in a single season. This is the record number that Tom Brady put up during the 2007 season. Record numbers, however, seem to have little to no meaning thus far in the NFL season. An NFL season that started despite the numerous feelings that it might not happen because of a lockout has already found its place in unquestioned history. The comebacks, the rookie records (see Cam Newton), the surprise teams (see Redskins, Lions, Bills), the disappointing teams (see Eagles, Falcons), and Calvin Johnson (a.k.a. Megatron) have all placed the first four weeks of this season on a pedestal of football achievement. With this in mind, what are some of the records that could actually fall at the end of the season and not just in the first quarter of the season?

My friend is a huge Packers fan (I know that is somewhat oxymoronic, but its like me having friends who are Yankees fans (which he is too), they are inescapable) and, not unexpectedly, is huge on Aaron Rodgers. For those of you who have not been following the first four weeks of the NFL, the defending Super Bowl MVP, Rodgers, is second in the league with 12 touchdown passes and fourth with 1,325 yards. And for you mathematician sports fans you will notice that through 4 games, Rodgers is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards (5,084), but so are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo.

That record could easily fall to any of the six guys on the list (although some more likely than others) and truth be told, it is a record that is bound to fall some point soon. Fifteen of the next nineteen seasons of the most passing yards have happened since Marino’s record year in 1984. A record that is more intriguing is Tom Brady’s single season record of 50 touchdown passes. Quick, once again, mathematician sports fans, is Aaron Rodgers on pace? No, not quite. He is on pace to throw for 48 touchdowns, but if you put the pieces together, there is someone on pace to break that record.

The leader in the NFL right now has thrown 13 touchdown passes, on pace for 52, and that QB is—Tom Brady. But what are the chances that the half-century mark falls to either of these hurlers?

There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers has a plethora of offensive weapons that will help his pursuit of this record. A receiving corps that boasts Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson (recently the benefactor of a contract extension), James Jones and emerging rookie Randall Cobb, not to mention a healthy Jermichael Finley at tight end, give Rodgers enough threats that redzone visits usually turn out well.

The Packers are not a one-dimensional offense, however. Ryan Grant and James Starks form a one-two punch at running back that give the Packers another dimension, and another dimension may mean less chances for Rodgers. This may be the least of Rodgers fans’ worries, however, as he pursues this record. What are some of the big worries?

Lambeau Field, the frozen tundra that the Packers call home, is not known to be historically kind to quarterbacks at the end of seasons. Three of the five regular season games that the Packers will play in December and January this year will be in Green Bay and one of the others will be played outside against the Giants in New Jersey. Rodgers has never thrown more than 8 touchdowns in December and January regular season games combined, in a single season (Brady had 11 in December and January in 2007). In these games, the roles of Ryan Grant and James Starks will most likely become magnified.

The last thing that may actually count against Rodgers in his pursuit is the Packers’ record. The Packers, right now, sit at 4-0. They are one only two teams in the NFL that remains unbeaten. The Packers are also no strangers to injury. While they made a remarkable run to a Super Bowl victory with a long list of injuries last season, they understand that an injury to Aaron Rodgers would be crippling (no offense Matt Flynn, I think you are a very good backup quarterback). Depending on where their record places them in the NFC Playoff picture late in the season, Rodgers may find himself on the bench as the Packers try to protect him for a title defense.

What about Tom Brady? Brady is in a similar situation. He has a good set of weapons (Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez), he has a good running game, 3 of his 5 games in Decemeber and January are in frozen Foxboro, and if he were to get injured the Patriots would be below mediocre (they are 3-1 right now).

I chose not to consider the rankings of the defenses of the teams that remain for the two quarterbacks in the final 12 games of the season because after four weeks as wild as this, rankings, I believe, do not have enough merit. Injuries happen that change defenses, and anomalies happen in the first four weeks that artificially influence a team’s total numbers. With all of the strikes against Rodgers, I do not see him breaking the half-century mark. I think a season of 35-40 touchdown passes is much more conceivable, and also very impressive. As for Brady, his defense is so paltry that he may have to continue at the current pace to keep his team where he wants them. But I see him falling short too, probably between 40-45 touchdowns.

But a Rodgers vs. Brady Super Bowl would be pretty exciting. Any takers?